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Your day-ahead look for Feb. 4, 2026
Your cognitive biases might contribute to the demand for bitcoin at its current valuation. (SvedOliver/Shutterstock modified by CoinDesk)
What to know:
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By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless specified otherwise)
Bitcoin’s bear market appears severe and may continue to worsen. Analysts indicate that potential cuts to Fed interest rates and crypto-specific regulatory relief are necessary to reverse this trend.
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However, underlying factors such as two specific behavioral biases may significantly influence the situation: anchoring bias and regret aversion.
Last year’s bullish market did not resemble previous bull runs. The absence of a rush from retail and institutional investors, as seen in 2020-21 or 2017, was notable. Spot ETFs attracted billions, primarily due to arbitrage activities rather than genuine bullish stances. This could be attributed to anchoring bias, a cognitive shortcut where individuals focus on one specific piece of information, such as a reference price, affecting their perception of value.
Investors might have been influenced by bitcoin’s $100,000 valuation, leading them to think: “That’s significantly higher than typical tech stocks; even the Nasdaq doesn’t trade that high; it must be overpriced.” Essentially, they may have used familiar benchmarks, concluded BTC was too expensive, and hesitated to invest.
Fast forward to now: Bitcoin is trading at $76,000, significantly below its peak. Should it drop beneath $60,000, a 50% reduction from its October high, last year’s hesitant investors might find ample reasons to commit strongly to long positions. This reflects regret aversion: the anxiety of missing out on future gains after sitting on the sidelines, which encourages active buying during price dips in assets with established upward trends.
Although behavioral biases present one convincing explanation for a potential rebound, macroeconomic factors and regulatory changes could also play a crucial role.
Currently, the cryptocurrency market is stabilizing, with bitcoin recovering to $76,000 after hitting overnight lows around $73,000, supported by oversold indicators from technical analyses. Ether , solana and XRP also increased, although they are being eclipsed by larger gains in monero , WLFI and other smaller cryptocurrencies.
Onchain data indicates that the pace of profit-taking by long-term holders, or wallets that have retained coins for over five months, has diminished, according to Tagus Capital.
Nonetheless, the risk of a more significant selloff remains if the Nasdaq 100, Wall Street’s technology-focused index, continues its decline from Monday and Treasury yields increase further. Key U.S. economic indicators to be released today — including ADP employment and ISM services — could contribute to market volatility. Stay vigilant!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to Watch
For a more extensive overview of events this week, see CoinDesk’s "Crypto Week Ahead".
- Crypto
- Nothing scheduled.
- Macro
- Feb. 4, 7 a.m.: U.S. MBA 30-year mortgage rate for week ending Jan. 30 (Prev. 6.24%)
- Feb. 4, 10 a.m.: U.S. ISM Services PMI for January (Prev. 54.4)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- Feb. 4: CME Group (CME), pre-market, $2.74
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s "Crypto Week Ahead".
- Governance votes & calls
- Feb. 4: Stacks to host a townhall meeting.
- Unlocks
- No major unlocks.
- Token Launches
- Feb. 4: THORChain Solana mainnet is expected to launch.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s "Crypto Week Ahead".
- Day 4 of 4: Web Summit Qatar (Doha, Qatar)
Market Movements
- BTC is down 0.14% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $76,051.11 (24hrs: -2.75%)
- ETH is down 0.98% at $2,607.45 (24hrs: -1.75%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 0.73% at 2,230.96 (24hrs: -1.9%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 17 bps at 2.83%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0028% (3.0748% annualized) on Binance
