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Gold surpasses $5,000 while bitcoin hovers around $87,000, highlighting a growing divide in the macro-crypto landscape: Asia Morning Briefing
Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics indicate a supply overhang and low engagement, while gold’s upward movement is perceived by markets as a significant macro regime change.
Key Points:
- The increase in gold prices above $5,000 per ounce is increasingly recognized as a lasting regime change, with investors viewing the metal as a stable safeguard against geopolitical tensions, central bank demand, and a weakening dollar.
- Bitcoin remains close to $87,000 in a market lacking strong conviction, as on-chain metrics reveal that long-term holders are selling during price rallies while newer investors are facing losses, with a significant supply overhang hindering advances toward $100,000.
- Derivatives and prediction markets indicate ongoing consolidation in bitcoin, alongside continued strength in gold, with low futures volumes, limited leverage, and weak interest in higher-beta crypto assets like ether reinforcing this cautious sentiment.
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Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily recap of leading stories during U.S. hours and an analysis of market movements. For an in-depth look at U.S. markets, refer to CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.
Gold’s rise beyond $5,000 appears to be evolving from a mere spike to a regime change, as bitcoin hovers around $87,000 during early Hong Kong trading, in a market with low conviction that continues to grapple with internal supply issues.
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On-chain indicators suggest that this divergence is more reflective of market structure than sentiment alone.
According to its latest analysis, CryptoQuant reports that bitcoin holders are beginning to sell at a loss for the first time since October 2023, with older investors exiting their positions and new holders entering the market, a trend that generally signals a transition to consolidation rather than acceleration.
Glassnode states that the market is being constrained by supply, with price increases repeatedly encountering sellers at the levels where recent purchasers originally entered.
Options and prediction markets support this perspective: the market is evaluating gold’s strength as persistent while diminishing expectations for a quick resurgence in bitcoin.
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Glassnode notes that the price remains stalled beneath significant short-term holder cost bases around $98,000, with a substantial supply overhang above $100,000 – indicating that there are enough sellers at elevated prices to limit rallies and complicate a sustained move above $100k in the near future.
Recent rallies have prompted breakeven sellers and loss-motivated exits from investors who accumulated at the 2025 peaks, reinforcing overhead resistance and maintaining a fragile upside.
Market dynamics further support this analysis.
Futures volumes are still constrained, leverage utilization is low, and recent price movements have transpired in thin liquidity rather than alongside increased participation.
On Polymarket, traders are assigning higher probabilities to gold maintaining its value above $5,500 through mid-year, while increasingly wagering that bitcoin will experience further consolidation before any renewed upward movement.
At present, gold is absorbing macroeconomic stress, while bitcoin remains in a digestion phase, working through internal supply rather than reacting to external catalysts.
Market Movement
BTC: Bitcoin is presently trading around $87,000, finding it hard to gain momentum as overhead supply, limited participation, and subdued leverage render rallies susceptible to renewed distribution.
ETH: Ether is lagging behind bitcoin, with price activity indicating weak demand, muted derivatives engagement, and little evidence that investors are significantly rotating back into higher beta crypto assets.
Gold: Gold surged to a new high above $5,000 per ounce as investors flocked to the metal amidst escalating geopolitical tensions, ongoing central bank purchases, and a weaker U.S. dollar, reinforcing its status as a reliable hedge against global risk.
Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei declined as Asia-Pacific markets exhibited mixed performance amid rising geopolitical uncertainties, with a stronger yen pressuring Japanese equities while other regional indices moved unevenly.
Elsewhere in Crypto
- The significant U.S. crypto legislation is progressing. Here’s what it means for everyday users (CoinDesk)
- Ethereum Foundation establishes post-quantum security team, introducing a $1 million research prize (The Block)
