Experts Increase Likelihood of U.S. SEC Approving Bitcoin Spot ETF

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Experts Increase Likelihood of U.S. SEC Approving Bitcoin Spot ETF0

  • Eric Balchunas noted that they have raised the odds to 75% from a previous 65%.
  • Prominent financial institutions are facing their “first deadline” decision this week.

Following Grayscale’s recent victory over the SEC, Bloomberg analysts have heightened the probability of a sanctioned spot Bitcoin ETF by the end of this year.

Given the unanimous and clear-cut nature of the U.S Court of Appeals Circuit’s ruling in the current case, Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas mentioned on Twitter on August 30 that they have increased the odds to 75% from an earlier 65%.

Balchunas expressed:

“James Seyffart and I are raising our odds to 75% for spot bitcoin ETFs launching this year (95% by the end of ’24). While we included the Grayscale win in our previous 65% odds, the unanimity & decisiveness of the ruling exceeded expectations and leaves the SEC with “very little wiggle room.”

All Eyes on SEC

As Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Elliot Stein highlighted in a separate note on August 30th, the judges collectively dismissed the arguments presented by the SEC, making it challenging for the agency to justify any further denials in light of upcoming deadlines.

Seyffart added on Twitter that he estimates spot Bitcoin ETF approvals will be finalized by the end of 2024, with approval probabilities rising to 95% by that time.

Additionally, major financial institutions have their “first deadline” decision on Bitcoin spot ETF applications within the next five days. In this context, Balchunas has indicated that he “wouldn’t be surprised” if the SEC delays its response on future Bitcoin spot ETF applications.

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