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The bank has reduced its revenue and earnings projections for Coinbase as the crypto market faces a challenging risk-off climate and delays in U.S. market structure legislation.
Citi has decreased its price target for Coinbase to $400 as the risk-averse sentiment in crypto markets persists. (CoinDesk)
Key points:
- Citi reduced its price target for Coinbase from $505 to $400 following the decline in both the cryptocurrency market and the stock’s value from all-time highs.
- The bank has lowered its fourth-quarter revenue estimates by approximately 10%.
- The bank continues to hold a buy/high risk rating for the stock, indicating that regulatory advancements are viewed as a primary potential positive factor.
Citigroup, a Wall Street institution, is adjusting its projections for Coinbase (COIN) due to a prevailing risk-off sentiment in the markets.
In a note issued to clients on Friday, the bank’s analysts revised their price target for the cryptocurrency exchange to $400 from $505, attributing this change to reduced trading volumes, diminished institutional engagement, and ongoing ambiguity regarding the timeline for U.S. crypto regulation.
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The updated price target of $400 still signifies more than a twofold increase from COIN’s previous closing price of $146. The same analyst team had raised its price target for COIN to $505 in July 2025 when the stock was nearing a record peak around $450.
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Shares gained 6% in pre-market trading on Friday as cryptocurrency markets attempted to recover from Thursday’s drop, during which bitcoin fell to $60,000.
Despite the short-term adjustment, the firm reaffirmed its buy/high risk rating, identifying Coinbase as the market leader and a significant beneficiary of future crypto reforms. Citi indicated that progress on the CLARITY Act remains a crucial factor for rekindling the stock’s upward momentum.
The bank now anticipates that Senate discussions regarding the market structure legislation will extend beyond 2026, even as foundational work continues.
Coinbase’s CEO Brian Armstrong mentioned that his company had retracted support for a comprehensive digital assets bill after discovering clauses that could negatively impact consumers and hinder competition.
The bill has consistently lost traction as crypto and banking lobbyists dispute stablecoin yields, while lawmakers from both parties remain at an impasse over various other provisions.
In light of current crypto valuations, analysts led by Peter Christiansen have adjusted their short-term forecasts, reducing Coinbase’s fourth-quarter 2025 net revenue estimate by roughly 10% to $1.69 billion, which is about 4% lower than consensus expectations.
Considering a $2.3 billion decline in the mark-to-market valuation of crypto assets and Coinbase’s equity interest in Circle (CRCL), the analysts now project a fourth-quarter GAAP EPS loss of $2.64.
Coinbase is scheduled to announce its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results after the market closes on February 12.
Read more: Citi states CLARITY Act momentum is increasing, but DeFi opposition could hinder crypto legislation
