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The bank has reduced its revenue and earnings projections for Coinbase in light of a challenging risk-off climate for cryptocurrency and delays regarding U.S. market structure legislation.
Citi has reduced its price target for Coinbase to $400 as the risk-off sentiment in the crypto market persists. (CoinDesk)
Key points:
- Citi lowered its Coinbase price target from $505 to $400 following the steep declines in cryptocurrency and stock prices from their peaks.
- The bank has decreased its fourth-quarter revenue expectations by approximately 10%.
- The bank continues to assign a buy/high risk rating to the stock, perceiving regulatory advancements as a significant positive factor.
Citigroup is revising its forecasts for Coinbase (COIN) amid a prevailing risk-off sentiment affecting the markets.
In a communication to clients on Friday, the analysts from the bank adjusted their price target for the cryptocurrency exchange to $400 from $505, pointing to diminished trading volumes, reduced institutional engagement, and persistent uncertainty regarding the timeline of U.S. cryptocurrency regulations.
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The updated price target of $400 still indicates a potential increase of more than 100% from COIN’s closing price of $146 last night. The same group of analysts had previously raised their price target for COIN to $505 in July 2025 when the stock reached a record high nearing $450.
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On Friday, shares experienced a 6% rise in pre-market trading as the cryptocurrency markets showed some recovery following Thursday’s downturn, which saw Bitcoin drop to $60,000.
Despite the short-term adjustments, the firm reaffirmed its buy/high risk rating, identifying Coinbase as a leading entity in the category and a primary beneficiary of future cryptocurrency reforms. Citi noted that advancements on the CLARITY initiative remain crucial for revitalizing the stock’s momentum.
The bank now anticipates that discussions in the Senate regarding the market structure bill may extend beyond 2026, even as preliminary work continues.
Brian Armstrong, the CEO of Coinbase, stated that his company had withdrawn its support for a comprehensive digital assets bill after uncovering elements that could negatively impact consumers and hinder competition.
The bill has consistently lost traction as crypto and banking lobbyists engage in disputes over stablecoin yields, while lawmakers from both parties remain at an impasse on numerous other aspects.
In response to current cryptocurrency price levels, analysts led by Peter Christiansen have revised their short-term predictions, reducing Coinbase’s fourth-quarter 2025 net revenue estimate by approximately 10% to $1.69 billion, which is about 4% lower than consensus expectations.
After accounting for a $2.3 billion decline in the mark-to-market value of cryptocurrency holdings and Coinbase’s equity interest in Circle (CRCL), the analysts now project a fourth-quarter GAAP EPS loss of $2.64.
Coinbase is scheduled to announce its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results after the market closes on February 12.
Read more: Citi reports progress on the CLARITY Act, but the DeFi debate may impede the advancement of the crypto bill
