Circle’s USDC transaction volumes surpass Tether’s USDT for the first time since 2019, leading to an increase in sell-side price targets.

Japanese investment bank Mizuho maintains a neutral stance on Circle, while raising its price target to $120 from $100.

Circle’s USDC transaction volumes have surpassed Tether’s USDT for the first time since 2019, resulting in an increase of sell-side price targets. (CoinDesk)

Key points:

• Mizuho reported that Circle’s USDC transaction volumes have reached approximately $2.2 trillion year-to-date in 2026, while Tether’s USDT amounts to $1.3 trillion.
• This change indicates the first occasion since 2019 that USDC activity has exceeded Tether’s, marking a reversal from previous years where USDT led in transaction volume.
• The investment bank elevated its Circle price target to $120 from $100, attributing this to increased USDC utilization and growth prospects in sectors like prediction markets and agentic commerce.

Circle’s (CRCL) USDC has overtaken Tether’s USDT in transaction volumes for the first time since 2019, prompting Japanese investment bank Mizuho to adjust its price target for the stablecoin issuer to $120 from $100, while maintaining a neutral rating on the stock.

The shares increased by 1% in early trading to $115.40 and have appreciated roughly 95% since their lows in February.

Analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins raised their Circle forecasts, highlighting “USDC activity trends and use cases such as Polymarket or agentic commerce expectations.”

Stablecoins, which are digital tokens backed by assets like fiat currency or gold, play a crucial role as payment and settlement mechanisms in the crypto economy, especially for trading and international transfers. The sector is primarily led by Tether’s USDT with a $143 billion market cap, followed by Circle’s USDC valued at $78 billion.

As per their Friday report, USDC has achieved approximately $2.2 trillion in adjusted transaction volume thus far in 2026, in contrast to $1.3 trillion for USDT. This grants USDC around a 64% share of adjusted volumes, a significant turnaround from 2019–2025 when Tether consistently led, and USDC maintained an average share of about 30%.

The analysts indicated that this shift is significant because the long-term victor among stablecoins will likely be determined by real economic usage rather than market capitalization alone. Standard Chartered anticipates the stablecoin market cap to reach $2 trillion by the close of 2028.

In light of stronger USDC activity and broadening use cases, the Mizuho analysts revised several long-term forecasts for Circle. They now project “meaningful wallets” to reach 11.7 million by 2027, up from a previous estimate of 10 million, contributing to an increase in the anticipated USDC market capitalization to $139 billion from $123 billion.

Circle has recently outperformed other crypto-related equities.

William Blair analysts mentioned in a Thursday note that while the recent uptick could be attributed to rising oil prices and a potentially more hawkish Federal Reserve, other influences are likely at play.

They attributed the resilience of USDC’s market capitalization amid the broader crypto decline, along with the growing investor awareness of Circle’s economic model and its prominence in stablecoin infrastructure.

Additional analysts pointed towards a positioning-driven short squeeze rather than fundamentals as the catalyst for the recent rise in the shares.

While the firm demonstrated robust growth in USDC supply, the stock’s pronounced response following earnings was more influenced by crowded short positions prior to the report than by strong financial performance, according to Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research.

Read more: Circle’s outperformance highlights USDC’s staying power, says bullish Wall Street analyst