Certain Bitcoin metrics continue to trend negatively, complicating the narrative of a bullish stance toward maintaining the $70,000 level.

Key indicators such as ETF inflows obscure the optimistic $70,000 retention narrative

Some bitcoin indicators are headed the wrong. (Mark Stuckey/Unsplash)

What to know:

• Bitcoin has remained close to $70,000 despite geopolitical tensions, increasing oil prices, and diminishing expectations for Federal Reserve rate reductions, demonstrating the market’s durability.
• However, a significantly negative Coinbase Premium complicates the optimistic retention narrative.
• ETF inflows, an indicator of institutional interest, have decreased since last week.

What term describes a market that consistently disregards news that typically causes declines? It is characterized as resilient with strong underlying demand support.

This encapsulates the bitcoin situation over the recent weeks, as the cryptocurrency has maintained stability around $70,000 despite the ongoing Iran conflict, rising oil costs, and vanishing Fed rate-cut expectations. Such resilience suggests bullish sentiment.

Nonetheless, some crucial indicators are trending negatively, which complicates that bullish perspective.

The first indicator is the Coinbase Premium, which assesses the price variation between bitcoin on Coinbase, a Nasdaq-listed exchange, and the offshore giant Binance. Generally, a strong positive premium indicates that U.S. institutional investors are bidding more vigorously than their international counterparts. A robust Coinbase premium has typically been present during bullish trends, such as bitcoin’s initial surge to $100,000 in late 2024.

Currently, however, the Coinbase Premium is exhibiting its most negative state in over a month, as reported by data source Coinglass. This indicates that BTC is trading at a discount on Coinbase, reflecting relatively lower demand from U.S. investors. The discount reemerged on March 19 and has been escalating since.

Another significant indicator—bitcoin ETF inflows, which also reflect institutional interest—has been lackluster recently.

The 11 U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.53 billion in net inflows this month, ending a three-month streak of outflows, according to SoSoValue. However, almost $1.3 billion was received in the initial half, with the pace significantly slowing to just $195 million thereafter. Analysts have consistently emphasized that steady, strong inflows are essential for Bitcoin prices to develop bullish momentum.

Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Giottus Exchange based in India, summarized it effectively: “The signal here is that institutional demand has not vanished. Nonetheless, it is selective and less straightforward than during the most vigorous accumulation phases.”

As of the time of writing, bitcoin was trading at approximately $70,000, based on CoinDesk data.