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According to trading platform QCP Capital, Bitcoin (BTC) could be weeks away from a “sharp rally” towards $34,000.
In their most recent market update published on Aug. 15, analysts indicated that the upcoming weeks represent a crucial decision point for BTC’s price movement.
BTC price due September “termination point”
With Bitcoin remaining within a range after several months of uncertain behavior, market participants are eager to forecast the emergence of a definitive market trend.
For QCP Capital, September is a pivotal month, as BTC/USD is completing a rising wedge formation that began at the conclusion of the 2022 bear market.
“On the charts, the wedge pattern that BTC has been navigating since its lows of 15k reaches its initial termination point at the beginning of September,” part of the update stated.
QCP highlighted that the specific area of focus is $29,300 — precisely the current center for the Bitcoin spot price.
“Will there be a sharp rally that propels us to the 34k resistance — similar to the previous three instances that touched the support trendline this year?” it further elaborated regarding the rising wedge.
“We believe it might still be a few quiet weeks before we find out. We are preparing to buy back our end-September short calls and consider going long on end-December volatility in due course.”
BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: QCP Capital
QCP’s viewpoint aligns with several more optimistic perspectives on BTC price strength in the near term, including one that suggests October as the deadline for the resurgence of the 2023 Bitcoin bull market.
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However, as reported by Cointelegraph, market expectations are varied on this subject, with some analysts cautioning that new lows may still occur before a widespread recovery takes place.
No macro BTC price catalyst in sight
In discussing macroeconomic trends, QCP asserted that significant changes have yet to materialize, reflecting the current state of the crypto market.
Related: BTC price won’t hit $100K before 2024 halving — Bitcoin investment exec
“The last time trading was this constrained, it was during the crypto winter of 2018 and 2019, and it required a shift in the macro environment to rejuvenate the market,” it noted.
Bitcoin’s volatility is approaching historical lows, as indicated by Bitcoin Historical Volatility Index (BVOL) data from TradingView.
Bitcoin Historical Volatility Index (BVOL) chart. Source: TradingView
“While that transformative shift in the macro environment is not yet visible, there are several short-term catalysts approaching on the crypto calendar late next month, including Mt Gox, GBTC, a potential SEC decision on Blackrock/Fidelity’s applications, and possible news regarding centralized crypto exchanges and stablecoins,” QCP added.
Among other points, analysts mentioned the September deadline for feedback on the initial Bitcoin spot price exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications — widely regarded as a potential turning point for the industry.
Europe’s first Bitcoin spot ETF commenced trading on Aug. 15, managed by Fidelity Investments.
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This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading decision carries risk, and readers should perform their own research before making any choices.
