Bloomberg analyst reaffirms $10,000 bitcoin prediction, while colleagues suggest extreme circumstances would be necessary to reach that level.

The longstanding bitcoin bear’s pessimistic prediction faced strong opposition from industry experts.

Key points:

• Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone is reaffirming his bearish stance that bitcoin could dip below $10,000, asserting that the cryptocurrency market is enduring a prolonged macroeconomic unwind.
• Multiple analysts contest the probability of such a drastic decline, suggesting that a drop to $10,000 would likely necessitate an extreme global liquidity crisis or other significant shock.
• While some market observers anticipate further downside, they generally predict bitcoin will trend lower or fluctuate within a broad range rather than plummet, with some asserting that the major bear-market low may have already been reached.

Bloomberg Intelligence’s senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone, who previously indicated bitcoin could fall to $10,000, is reiterating his forecast that bitcoin could indeed dip below that threshold, a prospect that several market analysts argue would require a severe macroeconomic shock.

In a conversation with EllioTrades, McGlone mentioned that the crypto bear market might not be finished and cautioned that bitcoin could remain susceptible if global risk assets undergo sharp repricing.

McGlone’s prediction drew pushback from various market analysts who stated that while they concur a further decline for bitcoin BTC$70,549.82 is feasible, a plunge to $10,000 would likely require an extraordinary global liquidity event.

“Analysts often become distracted by short-term macro fluctuations, and at times they draw unreasonable conclusions from that,” stated Mati Greenspan, founder and CEO of Quantum Economics.

“For an asset like bitcoin, which frequently experiences tens to hundreds of billions of dollars in daily trading volume across global markets, to revisit $10,000 we’d need a global liquidity crisis, a nuclear conflict, and the internet to cease functioning.”

Bitcoin BTC$70,549.82 is presently trading around $70,000, after fluctuating between $69,000 and $71,000. The rise in BTC’s price seemed to align with oil quickly reversing most of its session’s substantial gains, dropping $3 per barrel in a matter of minutes. Other cryptocurrencies, such as ether (ETH), solana (SOL), and XRP, also experienced upward movements.

Bitcoin price on Wednesday (CoinDesk data)

McGlone’s bearish perspective is grounded in wider macroeconomic factors. He argues that bitcoin has increasingly traded alongside other speculative assets as institutional involvement in crypto markets has expanded, diminishing the narrative that crypto functions as an uncorrelated hedge against traditional markets.

As per McGlone, the cryptocurrency sector remains ensnared in a larger macroeconomic unwind driven by deflationary pressures, excessive speculative supply, and what he perceives as an incomplete correction in traditional risk markets.

Further declines remain possible

Other analysts, who see the potential for additional declines in bitcoin’s price, echoed Greenspan’s view that McGlone’s price prediction is unlikely.

“A shift towards levels like $28,000 would likely necessitate a significant contraction in global liquidity, expanding credit spreads, or a broader financial distress event rather than merely a late-cycle slowdown,” remarked Jason Fernandes, co-founder and market analyst at AdLunam.

Jonatan Randin, senior market analyst at PrimeXBT, also indicated that bitcoin could experience further declines but characterized the $10,000 forecast as highly improbable.

“There will always be analysts projecting extreme price targets during a bear market,” Randin stated. “Could we drop to $10,000? Yes, it’s possible, but I consider it highly unlikely.”

Randin anticipates bitcoin to gradually trend lower in the upcoming months, noting that the next significant accumulation zone could form between $30,000 and $40,000.

“If the market is in a downtrend, you are in a bear market,” Randin said. “You will remain in a bear market until the primary trend changes.”

In the short term, however, he expects bitcoin to stay largely within a range between $60,000 and $70,000, cautioning that even a surge toward $80,000 could be short-lived if broader macro pressures continue.

The market bottom may have already been reached

Greenspan remarked that pinpointing an exact market bottom is challenging, but he noted that bitcoin may have already undergone its major bear-market correction.

“Attempting to identify an exact bottom is a futile endeavor,” he said. “Structurally, bitcoin has already navigated its major bear market in 2022. We’re currently observing about a 50% retracement from the all-time high, which is not unusual for bitcoin.”

He added that the recent price movements have been promising and that it is “quite possible we’ve already witnessed the bottom.”

Conversely, McGlone believes the market still requires a prolonged cleansing of speculative excesses before a sustainable bottom can be established.

“I think this process will take some time, and I don’t anticipate it will conclude until we eliminate some of these excesses,” he said.

“It’s a bear market,” McGlone emphasized. “Sell rallies.”

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