Bitwise reports that Bitcoin has appreciated but remains ‘considerably undervalued,’ with ‘intense fear’ prevailing.

Your day-ahead look for Feb. 20, 2026

(Midjourney modified by CoinDesk)

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By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless specified otherwise)

Bitcoin BTC$67,801.44 has risen by 2% over the last 24 hours, striving to surpass $68,000 following a selloff earlier this month. This has not significantly improved sentiment, as the “Fear and Greed” index remains at the “extreme fear” level for the 20th consecutive day.

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André Dragosch, head of research in Europe at Bitwise, indicated that consolidation is anticipated following the decline, which saw bitcoin drop to a low of $60,000.

“Outside of Covid, bitcoin typically does not exhibit V-shaped recoveries following substantial capitulations,” he informed CoinDesk. “The most probable scenario is that we will continue to move sideways or downward.”

Nevertheless, Dragosch noted hopeful indicators. Prediction markets now estimate the likelihood of the U.S. Clarity Act passing in 2026 to be near 80%. He characterized the bill as a significant catalyst for alternative tokens such as ether (ETH) and solana (SOL). Bitwise’s internal Cryptoasset Sentiment Index indicated a neutral stance, he added.

“In terms of macroeconomic factors, bitcoin continues to show considerable ‘discounts’ concerning global money supply, gold, and the overall macro growth outlook. Bitcoin is also significantly undervalued relative to global Bitcoin ETP flows,” Dragosch stated. “ETP flows remain relatively weak, but once risk appetite and flows return, this suggests we could see a substantial catch-up in bitcoin.”

However, caution remains. Data from CryptoQuant reveals that large bitcoin holders have transferred coins onto Binance at unprecedented levels. Such movements often indicate an intention to sell, increasing supply on spot markets and potentially exerting downward pressure on prices.

Dragosch dismissed concerns that bitcoin may function as a “canary in the macro coal mine,” signaling tighter liquidity and heightened recession risks. He noted that the U.S. yield curve and other forward indicators suggest ongoing money supply growth. Global liquidity is expanding at over 10% annually, a context that has not typically aligned with prolonged bitcoin bear markets, he added.

Indeed, prediction markets have lowered the chances of a recession occurring in the U.S. this year. The likelihood of such an event has dropped from over 40% in mid-2025 to just above 20%.

Despite this, the crypto market may experience increased volatility as the weekend approaches. Later today, U.S. core PCE index data will be released, which could offer insights into future Fed policy directions.

Traders are preparing for a slight increase from previous figures. While rising inflation usually bolsters the case for scarce assets, a hawkish response from the Fed could strengthen the dollar, further pressuring risk assets as the weekend approaches. Stay vigilant!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more extensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Crypto
  • Nothing scheduled.
• Macro
  • Feb. 20. 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Core PCE price index MoM for December est. 0.4% (Prev. 0.2%); YoY est. 2.9% (Prev. 2.8%)
  • Feb. 20, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. GDP growth rate QoQ Adv for Q4 est. 3. (Prev. 4.4%)
  • Feb. 20, 9:45 a.m.: U.S. S&P Global manufacturing PMI flash for February est. 52.6 (Prev. 52.4).
  • Feb. 20, 10 a.m.: U.S. Michigan consumer sentiment final for February est. 57.3 (Prev. 56.4)
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • Nothing scheduled.

Token Events

For a more extensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Governance votes & calls
  • Aavegotchi DAO is voting to consolidate assets from depleted wallets into the Liquidity wallet to simplify operations. Voting ends Feb. 22.
  • Fluid DAO is voting to withdraw 1 million GHO and 1 million FLUID from the treasury to the Team Multisig to fund JupLend rewards and protocol incentives. Voting ends Feb. 22.
  • GMX is voting on a proposal to implement tiered trading fee discounts for stakers and a staker-weighted trading leaderboard. Voting ends Feb. 22.
• Unlocks
  • Feb. 20: LayerZero (ZRO) to unlock 5.98% of its circulating supply worth $48.33 million.
  • Feb. 20: Kaito (KAITO) to unlock 10.64% of its circulating supply worth $10.77 million.
• Token Launches
  • No major launches.

Conferences

For a more extensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Day 4 of 5: ETHDenver

Market Movements

• BTC is up 1.97% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $68,220.42 (24hrs: +1.98%)
• ETH is up 1.1% at $1,969.19 (24hrs: +0.12%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 1.5% at 1,960.80 (24hrs: +1.14%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 2 bps at 2.83%
• BTC funding rate is at -0.0047% (-5.1936% annualized) on Binance