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Two Prime data indicates that post-meeting weakness prevails, even as markets anticipate a Fed hold and minimal rate cuts ahead.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
Key points:
- Bitcoin has declined following seven of eight 2025 FOMC meetings, illustrating a persistent “sell the news” trend despite diverse policy outcomes.
- Futures markets anticipate only one 25 bps cut this year, while increasing oil prices and geopolitical issues may keep inflation high and restrict Fed options.
As bitcoin approaches the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, it is enjoying robust momentum, trading above $74,000 after eight consecutive days of gains. Nevertheless, data gathered by bitcoin lender Two Prime indicates that this strength could conceal a recurring trend, as FOMC meetings have historically served as short-term bearish triggers for BTC.
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In 2025, bitcoin experienced negative returns in the 48 hours following seven out of eight FOMC meetings. Even in May, when BTC saw a significant rally, the overall trend reveals consistent post-meeting weakness, irrespective of whether the Fed maintained rates or altered its policy stance. This underscores the notion that the event itself, rather than the outcome, influences volatility.
BTC Change After Each Fed Meeting (Two Prime)
The forthcoming decision is expected to be without surprises. Markets are indicating a nearly certain probability, around 99%, that the Federal Reserve will maintain rates in the 350 to 375 basis point range. Additionally, the futures market is forecasting only a single 25 basis point rate cut by year-end, which supports a prolonged higher rate environment. This outlook persists even with the anticipated transition to a new Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Warsh, expected to assume the role in June.
Macro risks further complicate the situation. Heightened conflict in the Middle East and oil prices near $100 per barrel are likely to exert upward pressure on CPI inflation figures, limiting the Fed’s ability to ease policy amid a weakening job market.
With bitcoin entering the meeting on a positive note, the risk leans toward a traditional sell the news response.
