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Your day-ahead look for Feb. 5, 2026
(Midjourney/Modified by CoinDesk)
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By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless stated otherwise)
With bitcoin’s bear market continuing and the price declining to its lowest since November 2024, its fundamental proposition, a hard cap of 21 million supply, is encountering renewed doubt.
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Some analysts argue that alternative investment options such as ETFs, cash-settled futures, and options, as well as services like prime-broker lending, have diminished that scarcity allure. These instruments allow investors to engage with bitcoin without necessarily holding the actual asset, resulting in a “synthetic supply” that saturates the market.
"When supply can be synthetically created, the asset loses its scarcity, and when scarcity vanishes, price becomes a derivatives-based scenario, rather than a supply-and-demand market. This is precisely what has transpired with Bitcoin," noted seasoned analyst and author of The Kendall Report, Bob Kendall, on X.
Gold, silver, oil, and equities have undergone a similar structural transformation with the introduction of alternative investment vehicles, Kendall stated. In 2023, CoinDesk underscored how the financialization of BTC generates paper claims that replicate abundance in a market characterized by genuine scarcity.
This is also why investors should exercise caution with onchain metrics like the "percentage of illiquid supply," as these do not take into account the significant “paper supply” from ETFs and futures that undermine the 21 million limit.
In the market, bitcoin has further declined, dipping below $70,000 for the first time in more than a year.
Veteran chart analyst Peter Brandt remarked that the selloff displays all indicators of campaign selling, signifying coordinated selling by institutions and large traders rather than retail liquidation. Brandt is uncertain about the level or timing of when the downturn will cease.
Most analysts predict a fall below $60,000, while firms like Stifel anticipate a more substantial drop to $38,000, given the increasing correlation with tech stocks, which have also experienced recent declines.
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Hyperliquid’s HYPE remains the only consistent refuge. The token has risen 11% year-to-date, while BTC has decreased nearly 19%. Another noteworthy token, TRX, has decreased only 2%, potentially outperforming the wider market, due to buying during dips by treasury firm Tron Inc.
In traditional markets, Wall Street’s so-called fear index, the VIX, is revisiting January highs above 20.00, indicating risk aversion. U.S. Treasury market movements suggest expectations for a reduced Fed balance sheet. Stay attentive!
Read more: For insights into today’s activities in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to Watch
For a more detailed list of events this week, check CoinDesk’s "Crypto Week Ahead".
- Crypto
- Feb. 5: Zilliqa is set to undergo its hardfork enabling Cancun.
- Macro
- Feb. 5, 2 p.m.: Mexico interest-rate decision (Prev. 7%)
- Feb, 5, 4:30 p.m.: Fed balance sheet for the period ending Feb. 4
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- Feb. 5: Bullish (BLSH), pre-market, $0.15
- Feb. 5: Strategy (MSTR), post-market, -$18.64
- Feb. 5: IREN Limited (IREN), post-market, -$0.18
- Feb. 5: CleanSpark (CLSK), post-market, -$0.02
Token Events
For a more detailed list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s "Crypto Week Ahead".
- Governance votes & calls
- Feb. 5: PancakeSwap will host an ask me anything (AMA) session with Arbitrum.
- Feb. 5: Olympus will conduct a community call with a live Q&A session.
- Feb. 5: Aster will organize an AMA session with its CEO.
- Unlocks
- Feb. 5: will unlock 5% of its circulating supply valued at $31.52 million.
- Feb. 5: will unlock 2.31% of its circulating supply valued at $26.46 million.
- Token Launches
- No significant launches are scheduled.
Conferences
For a more detailed list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s "Crypto Week Ahead".
- Day 1 of 2: Digital Assets Forum (London)
Market Movements
- BTC is down 1.62% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $71,467.00 (24hrs: -6.52%)
- ETH is up 0.24% at $2,130.50 (24hrs: -5.93%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 1.68% at 2,077.53 (24hrs: -7.15%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 18 bps at 3.01%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0008% (0.8793% annualized) on Binance
