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Bitcoin Remains Under $26K Amid Varied Market Indicators and Anticipated ‘Mid-Cycle Pause’

Bitcoin’s value seems to be trapped in a downward trend, trading beneath $26,000 at the moment. Nonetheless, a combination of market indicators and historical trends suggests a potentially more turbulent period ahead. The cryptocurrency recently achieved a 7-month peak of 7,670,004.977 BTC in supply at a loss, as noted in a tweet by Glassnode Alerts. In addition, CryptoCon, an account previously linked with Twitter, highlighted Bitcoin’s November 28th Time Cycles indicator, implying an impending “mid-cycle lull” for the digital currency.
Employing 4-year cycles, CryptoCon’s hypothesis has accurately forecasted Bitcoin’s price movements since its inception. Based on this indicator, Bitcoin is presently in a phase anticipated to endure the longest until the curve reaches its lowest point. If this analysis is accurate, Bitcoin could initiate its next bull market in November 2024. Notably, this coincides with the forthcoming Bitcoin halving event, which is often a precursor to bullish market trends.
As Bitcoin approaches its ‘mid-cycle lull’, subtle signs of a potential rise have surfaced. For example, market metrics from CryptoQuant show predominantly bullish signals. The coin is not experiencing significant selling pressure, with net deposits on exchanges remaining below the seven-day average. Bitcoin’s aSORP is in the green, indicating that sellers are currently at a loss, typically a sign of a bear market bottom. Additionally, the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) metric indicates that the market is engulfed in fear, which is often viewed as another bullish indicator.
Supporting the optimistic perspective are traditional market indicators. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a bullish inclination, and Bitcoin’s Money Flow Index (MFI) is on an upward trajectory. Both indicators increase the probability of Bitcoin breaking free from its bearish trend soon.
However, challenges remain for Bitcoin. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has shown a slight decrease, possibly signaling weaker buying interest or heightened selling activity. This blend of conflicting indicators and future forecasts highlights the current unpredictability of the market, making it essential for investors to proceed with caution in these uncertain conditions.
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