Bitcoin remains above $70,000, but its future trajectory depends on discussions between Iran and the U.S.

Cryptocurrencies saw an uptick following Trump’s announcement of a five-day halt on military actions, yet the subsequent direction will depend on whether U.S.-Iran tensions diminish or escalate, noted a trader from Wintermute.

Bitcoin (BTC) price on Monday (CoinDesk)

Key points:

• Bitcoin surpassed $70,000 and maintained most of its gains after U.S. President Donald Trump declared a five-day cessation of strikes on Iranian energy assets.
• Alternative cryptocurrencies such as ether, solana, and dogecoin increased by approximately 5%, while mining stocks tied to cryptocurrencies surged alongside the broader stock market, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both gaining around 1.2%.
• Experts suggest that bitcoin’s forthcoming movements depend on whether oil prices and shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz stabilize, which could lead to another examination of the $74,000 to $76,000 range, or deteriorate, potentially dragging prices back toward the mid-$60,000s.

Bitcoin BTC$70,854.88 retained its gains on Monday following an earlier rise above $70,000, yet the outcome of the recovery now relies on the developments between the U.S. and Iran.

This movement came in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a five-day suspension of military actions against Iranian energy infrastructure, attributing it to “productive” diplomatic discussions.

Iranian officials refuted the existence of these discussions, but the markets largely disregarded this, with risk assets remaining resilient throughout the trading session.

Bitcoin traded slightly below $71,000 later in the session, reflecting a 3.8% increase over the previous 24 hours. Alternative cryptocurrencies outperformed, with ether (ETH), solana (SOL), and DOGE$0.09510 each increasing by around 5%.

Stocks linked to cryptocurrencies also surged, particularly bitcoin mining companies, which have increasingly mirrored AI infrastructure investments. Hut 8 (HUT) rose by more than 11%, while Bitfarms (BITF), Cipher Mining (CIFR), CleanSpark (CLSK), Riot Platforms (RIOT), and TeraWulf (WULF) saw gains of 6%-7%.

Conventional markets also experienced an upward trend, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing approximately 1.2% higher.

Although the temporary halt has alleviated pressure in the energy sector, traders should approach the recovery in risk assets with caution.

“The macro ceiling has shifted,” commented Jasper de Maere, OTC trader at Wintermute. “The extent of room available will depend on the next five days.”

Should oil prices stabilize and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal, he stated, inflation worries might diminish, facilitating the return of rate-cut expectations and alleviating a significant obstacle for crypto.

In such a scenario, bitcoin could attempt to breach the $74,000–$76,000 range, a level that has limited advances in recent weeks, according to de Maere.

A breakdown in discussions or a renewed disruption to energy supplies would yield the opposite effect, he indicated. This could likely elevate oil prices again, heightening inflation concerns and pushing markets back into a risk-averse stance that could pull bitcoin back toward the mid-$60,000s.