Bitcoin recovers towards $70,000 as ETFs attract $1.45 billion in just five days.

Market maker Enflux indicates that traders are not factoring in either disaster or resolution regarding the conflict in the Middle East, while Glassnode data reveals an uptick in spot demand alongside cautious positioning in derivatives.

Key points:

• Bitcoin’s surge toward $70,000 has primarily been influenced by short-covering and positioning, rather than a revival of bullish sentiment, according to market maker Enflux.
• Institutional interest continues to be a significant source of support, with spot bitcoin ETFs attracting around $1.45 billion in net inflows during the last five trading sessions.
• On-chain, derivatives, and prediction-market data suggest that bitcoin has established near-term support; however, traders are still cautious and are not pricing in either a substantial rally or a significant sell-off.

Bitcoin’s rise towards $70,000—trading at $68,000 as Hong Kong reached midday—seems to have been more influenced by positioning than by conviction, as noted by market maker Enflux, which stated that the movement largely reflected short-covering after traders positioned themselves bearish in response to geopolitical news.

“The market is not factoring in disaster, but it is also not anticipating resolution,” Enflux stated in a note to CoinDesk. “Shorts reacted to the Iran developments over the weekend, prompting BTC to drop to 63k, and when escalation did not quickly lead to a more extensive regional conflict impacting the Gulf and Dubai trade routes, the squeeze began.”

(CoinDesk)

Enflux noted that cryptocurrency typically responds more swiftly than traditional assets during geopolitical disturbances.

“When bombs fall or sanctions become stricter, capital seeks avenues for exit. In uncertain times, BTC serves as a pressure relief valve,” the firm stated.

Institutional interest has consistently been a significant support factor. In the last five trading sessions, BTC ETFs have garnered approximately $1.45 billion in net inflows.

Boomers to the rescue again as bitcoin ETFs record $1.5b of inflows in the past 5 days after another big day yesterday. Biggest haul in a while, just about all of the original ten spot ETFs seeing action too = breadth and depth. This after a 50%(!) drawdown and most underwater.… pic.twitter.com/eF0VJqiPZ0

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) March 3, 2026

On-chain and derivatives metrics indicate the market is stabilizing, yet confidence has not fully returned.

A recent report from Glassnode indicated that momentum indicators are starting to recover from prior weaknesses, with bitcoin’s relative strength index climbing to approximately 41 from 36 the week before, although it remains below the neutral 50 level that would indicate stronger bullish dominance.

Spot market conditions have also shown improvement. Trading volume has increased to around $9.6 billion from $6.6 billion the prior week, while the balance of buying and selling flows in spot markets has improved, indicating that the previous wave of aggressive selling is starting to subside.

Derivatives markets continue to exhibit caution. Glassnode mentioned that the expense of maintaining leveraged long positions has significantly decreased, while futures trading still reflects sellers outnumbering buyers, indicating ongoing caution among leveraged traders.

Prediction markets portray a similar trend of waning conviction: the likelihood of bitcoin dropping to $65,000 in March has decreased by 11 percentage points to 73%, the chances of it reaching $60,000 have fallen by 10 points to 41%, and a separate Polymarket contract forecasting bitcoin hitting $60,000 before $80,000 has also weakened, dropping 12 points to 61%.

Together, these indicators suggest that bitcoin has found support for the time being, but traders remain reluctant to factor in either a significant rally or a deeper sell-off.