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Bitcoin (BTC) is on the verge of challenging hodlers with a “mid cycle lull” prior to initiating a bull run in late 2024, according to a new BTC price model.
As stated by its creator, well-known analyst CryptoCon, the “November 28th Cycles Theory” predicts that the BTC price will reach an all-time high in 2025.
Countdown to BTC price “bull run initiation”
In the midst of discussions regarding the characteristics of the current Bitcoin four-year price cycle, CryptoCon suggests that the behavior of BTC/USD may be more straightforward than many believe.
Revealing the “November 28th” chart on X (formerly Twitter), he identified this date as a significant pivot point within the year, along with a three-week timeframe on either side.
“Utilizing 4-year time cycles in relation to my Theory accurately reflects Bitcoin’s behavior over time since its inception. Cycles are centered around the date of the first halving on November 28th,” he clarified.
“Bitcoin price action commenced at the initial bottom on October 8th, 2010. This marks where cycle curves peak every four years. Tops and bottoms occur +/- 21 days from November 28th at their respective times on the curve. Tops during the upswing, bottoms at the peak.”
The chart indicates that November 28 is the date Bitcoin experiences a “bull run initiation” every four years. The most recent instance was in 2020 when BTC/USD surpassed its previous all-time high (ATH) to reach its current record of $69,000 a year later.
The next significant date is thus November 2024. Until that time, BTC price action is expected to remain in a “mid cycle lull.”
“Following Bitcoin’s bottom, the price makes an initial first cycle move (orange) and transitions into a mid-cycle lull,” CryptoCon elaborated.
“This represents the longest segment of the cycle, during which Bitcoin lingers around the median price (half of the previous ATH), until the curve reaches its bottom.”
Bitcoin November 28th theory chart. Source: CryptoCon/X
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He noted that Bitcoin has “almost certainly” reached its early peak, referring to the $31,800 local highs from July.
A Bitcoin “bull market deception”
As Cointelegraph has reported, views on the direction of BTC price action leading up to the 2024 block subsidy halving vary.
Related: Bitcoin halving could elevate BTC price to $148K by July 2025 — Pantera Capital
Some believe that only modest gains will be experienced by hodlers prior to the event, which is set for April next year.
In a recent interview with Cointelegraph, Filbfilb, co-founder of trading suite DecenTrader, nonetheless projected a target of $46,000 for the halving, with $35,000 anticipated by year-end.
In his latest newsletter published on September 5, CryptoCon characterized 2023 BTC price movements as a “bull market deception.”
“This creates the illusion that the bull market has commenced with the activation of numerous signals, but eventually, the price fails to sustain its momentum,” he stated.
“This is the most compelling example we’ve encountered of this phenomenon thus far. Personally, I believe there is still some time left for this to unfold, and I am patiently awaiting its conclusion.”
BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
BTC/USD was trading at $26,200 at the time of writing on September 8, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
This article does not offer investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading decision carries risk, and readers should perform their own research before making any choices.
