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Bitcoin optimistic positions reach a 28-month peak on Bitfinex, signaling concern for bearish traders.
Historically, increases in Bitfinex BTC/USD long positions have served as a contrary signal.
Long positions on Bitfinex increase, indicating a positive sign for bitcoin bears. Bear. (Hans-Jurgen Mager/Unsplash)
Key points:
- Optimistic bitcoin long positions on Bitfinex have risen to 79,343, the highest figure since November 2023.
- Historically, surges in Bitfinex BTC/USD long positions have served as a contrary signal, frequently aligning with price peaks and precede downturns.
- The recent increase in long positions, along with macroeconomic factors, indicates a heightened risk that bitcoin’s bearish trend may intensify.
Indeed, the title is accurate. The quantity of bullish bitcoin positions, known as BTC/USD longs, on the original exchange Bitfinex has reached multi-month peaks.
However, bulls should exercise caution, as this metric has historically become a classic “contrary indicator,” with increases often characterizing downward trends in bitcoin’s price.
Peak since 2023
The total of BTC/USD longs has surged to 79,343, the highest since November 2023, according to data from CoinDesk.
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Rising bullish positions typically suggest increasing upward pressure – a favorable indication. Nevertheless, historically, the market has exhibited the opposite behavior, declining just as favorable conditions seem to arise.
For example, during the last quarter of 2025, BTC/USD longs increased by 30% while BTC’s spot price dropped by 23% to $87,550. Similar trends have been noted in recent years, as illustrated below.
The chart illustrates the inverse relationship between the spot price and the number of longs on Bitfinex. (TradingView)
BTC’s price tends to reach its lowest points when Bitfinex longs are at their peak and tends to rise as longs decrease. Price peaks (like in October) are achieved when longs are at their lowest, followed by price declines as longs increase.
Analysts have previously noted this paradox, suggesting that the majority of market participants are often misguided, hence it is advisable to bet against them.
Consequently, the recent rise in longs implies that bitcoin’s volatile price movements between $65,000 and $75,000 may soon culminate in a sell-off, potentially worsening the downtrend that commenced above $100,000 last year. It is important to mention that past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes.
Additionally, other elements, such as reports regarding the U.S. potentially deploying troops in the ongoing conflict in Iran, the surge in oil prices, and concerns over a possible Federal Reserve rate increase, further support the bearish outlook.
As of the time of writing, bitcoin was trading near $66,400, based on data from CoinDesk.
