Bitcoin may drop to $10,000 amid increasing recession risks in the U.S., according to Mike McGlone.

McGlone associates bitcoin’s decline with unprecedented U.S. market cap-to-GDP ratios, minimal equity volatility, and increasing gold prices, cautioning about possible spillover effects into stocks.

Mike McGlone indicated that bitcoin could drop to $10,000; however, market analyst Jason Fernandes argues that this perspective is misguided. (Photo: Olivier Acuna/Modified by CoinDesk)

Key points:

• Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone cautions that declining cryptocurrency values and the potential for bitcoin to approach $10,000 could indicate increasing financial strain and signal a forthcoming U.S. recession.
• McGlone asserts that the post-2008 “buy the dip” trend may be waning as cryptocurrencies decline, stock market valuations linger near historical peaks relative to GDP, and equity volatility remains notably low.
• Market analyst Jason Fernandes contends that a bitcoin drop to $10,000 would likely necessitate a significant systemic shock and recession, labeling such an event a low-probability tail risk compared to a gentler reset or consolidation.

Bloomberg Intelligence macro strategist Mike McGlone stated on Monday that the plummeting prices of cryptocurrencies may reflect broader financial distress, suggesting that bitcoin could revert to $10,000 and potentially presage the next U.S. recession.

In a post on X, McGlone also noted that the enduring “buy the dip” mindset supporting risk assets since 2008 may be faltering as digital currencies decline and volatility dynamics change.

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After rising to $70,841 by 07:00 UTC on February 15 from $65,395 late on February 12, bitcoin was approximately $68,800 by mid-morning. The overall cryptocurrency market was also in decline on Monday, with 85 of the top 100 tokens experiencing losses. Privacy-centric coins monero and zcash fell by 10% and 8%, respectively, over the preceding 24 hours.

“Healthy Correction is what we should hear soon from stock market analysts (who risk unemployment if not onboard), following collapsing cryptos,” McGlone commented. “The buy the dips mantra since 2008 may be over.”

McGlone referenced various macroeconomic indicators that illustrate heightened risk conditions. He noted that U.S. stock market capitalization relative to gross domestic product (GDP) has attained its highest level in roughly a century. Concurrently, he mentioned that 180-day volatility in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 is at its lowest level in nearly eight years.

He characterized the “crypto bubble” as “imploding,” adding that “Trump euphoria” has peaked and is contributing to contagion across markets. Additionally, gold and silver are “grabbing alpha” at a rate not seen in about half a century, with increasing volatility that he mentioned could “trickle up” into equities.

McGlone presented a chart comparing bitcoin divided by 10 for scaling, alongside the S&P 500. As of February 13, both were positioned below 7,000 on his graphic. He remarked that “volatile and beta-dependent” bitcoin is unlikely to maintain that level if the broader equity beta weakens.

The Bloomberg analyst identified 5,600 on the S&P 500, roughly equivalent to $56,000 for bitcoin under his scaling, as an initial “normal reversion” level. Beyond that, part of his baseline scenario anticipates bitcoin reverting to $10,000, contingent on a peak in the U.S. stock market.

McGlone’s perspective divides opinion

Jason Fernandes, co-founder of AdLunam and a market analyst, informed CoinDesk that McGlone’s argument presupposes that market extremes must resolve through collapse, asserting that bitcoin’s equity beta ensures a proportional downturn.

“That’s false equivalence and single-path bias,” Fernandes stated. “Markets can also rectify excess through time, rotation, or inflation erosion. A macro slowdown could result in consolidation or a reset to $40,000 to $50,000, rather than a systemic decline to $10,000.”

Fernandes remarked that a shift toward $10,000 would likely necessitate a genuine systemic event, which could involve sharp liquidity contraction, widening credit spreads, forced deleveraging across funds, and a disordered equity drawdown.

“That implies recession plus financial stress, not merely slower growth,” he explained. “In the absence of a credit shock or policy error that drains global liquidity, such a collapse remains a low-probability tail risk.”