Bitcoin maintains stability around $70,000 as increasing open interest suggests a measured, pessimistic stance.

Bitcoin was trading at approximately $69,800 as open interest increased to $102 billion, indicating a rise in defensive, bearish positions while altcoins showed better performance in a risk-averse macro environment.

Increasing open interest indicates bearish positions (Sean Benesh on Unsplash/Modified by CoinDesk)

What to know:

• Bitcoin has been trading within a narrow range of $69,000 to $71,700 for 48 hours, even as the conflict in the Middle East has caused oil prices to rise toward $100, impacting global equity markets.
• Open interest in crypto futures increased by 2% to $102 billion; however, flat to negative funding rates and cumulative volume delta imply that traders are taking on cautious bearish positions rather than significantly increasing long positions.
• Altcoins have demonstrated relative strength: HYPE, SKY, and TAO have gained, while NIGHT dropped 10% following its Binance listing, prompting selling from holders.

Bitcoin BTC$70,388.41 was recently trading around $70,100, reflecting a 0.1% decrease since midnight UTC.

The leading cryptocurrency has been confined within a narrow trading band of $71,700 to $69,000 over the past 48 hours as volatility appears to diminish despite ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Oil prices moved closer to $100 per barrel on Thursday after reports of a sixth ship being attacked by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns about global energy supplies.

In contrast, the crypto market has remained relatively stable; Hyperliquid’s HYPE token has continued to rise toward $40, increasing by 2.5% since midnight, while MORPHO, ETHFI, and XMR have also posted gains.

Derivatives positioning

• In the last 24 hours, open interest (OI) in crypto futures has risen by 2% to $102 billion.
• OI for bitcoin and ether increased by 2% and 4%, respectively, while annualized perpetual funding rates and cumulative volume delta (CVD) have remained flat to negative. This indicates that the recent increase in open interest is primarily due to defensive, bearish positioning rather than aggressive long positions.
• Hyperliquid’s HYPE token has seen a 9% increase in the past 24 hours, extending its recent upward trend. However, the rally has not yet stimulated demand for leveraged bets, as evidenced by futures OI remaining steady near multi-month lows of around 40 million HYPE.
• Interest in tether gold (XAUT) has been declining, with futures OI dropping to 93.50 XAUT, the lowest level since February 28, and significantly down from the March 2 peak of 149.72K XAUT. This indicates that gold-linked assets are gradually losing appeal as the rally in spot gold stagnates.
• The 30-day implied volatility indices for bitcoin and ether, BVIV and EVIV, have remained stable despite an overnight rally in oil and a drop in U.S. stock futures.
• This stability indicates that traders are not perceiving a substantial shift in forward-looking risk or cross-asset contagion for major cryptocurrencies.
• On Deribit, put options for bitcoin and ether, which provide protection against market declines, continue to be priced at a premium over call options. There is significant interest in the $20,000 put option, a position that bets on BTC’s spot price falling below that level.

Token talk

• The altcoin market remains resilient despite a risk-averse sentiment in global markets.
• The decentralized finance (DeFi) token SKY recorded a 7.6% increase over the last 24 hours, while the AI-oriented bittensor (TAO) rose by approximately 4.5%.
• One token that has struggled to keep pace with its counterparts is midnight (NIGHT), the privacy token established by Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson. NIGHT is currently priced at $0.046, having declined 10% over the past 24 hours after its listing on Binance provided holders with an opportunity to sell.
• The altcoin-focused CoinDesk 80 (CD80) Index was the top-performing benchmark in the last 24 hours, gaining 2.5%, while the bitcoin-centric CoinDesk 5 (CD5) only increased by 0.9%.
• The next movement in the altcoin market will depend on whether bitcoin can break above the current range, with a move past $74,000 potentially leading to further rotation into more speculative altcoins.