Bitcoin is not currently experiencing its ‘most extended bear market’ — Here’s the explanation.

Industry analysts suggest that cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin (BTC) are not currently experiencing their “longest bear market” and may not even be in a bear market at all.

Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading, expressed on X (formerly Twitter) on Aug. 27 that Bitcoin is presently undergoing its “longest bear market” in history.

“At this moment, Bitcoin’s price is significantly below the peak valuation from November ’21. It has decreased by over 50% and has been in a bear market for 490 days,” the trader noted.

Van de Poppe’s assertion has garnered considerable attention from users on X, accumulating 1.3 million views and nearly a thousand shares at the time of this report. However, some cryptocurrency enthusiasts believe that Van de Poppe’s claims are not accurate.

To assess the duration of the current “bear market” in the cryptocurrency sector, it is essential to recognize that the term can be interpreted in various ways.

“The reality is that the terms ‘bull’ and ‘bear market’ are completely subjective,” stated Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, in an interview with Cointelegraph. “It can refer to either past price movements or anticipated future price directions,” Greenspan added:

“This ambiguity allows analysts to engage in endless debates without resolution.”

As noted by Cointelegraph’s market editor Allen Scott, one could interpret the current market conditions as a “multi-year bear market until a new all-time high is achieved.” This viewpoint implies that Bitcoin has been in a bear market since it reached its all-time high of nearly $69,000 on Nov. 10, 2021, totaling 659 days. This duration exceeds that cited by Van de Poppe, yet it still does not represent the longest “bear market” under this interpretation.

Cointelegraph previously reported that Bitcoin experienced a price drop below its previous highs for a span of 37 months — approximately 1,125 days — from November 2013 to January 2017. For over three years, Bitcoin’s price did not recover to $1,000 after reaching that level in 2013.

After hitting $20,000 for the first time in December 2017, Bitcoin remained below that price until December 2020, lasting 1,095 days. However, does this indicate that Bitcoin was in a “bear market” during that timeframe? Analyzing the charts, one might argue that Bitcoin was actually on a path toward its all-time high of $68,000.

Bitcoin price chart from late 2017 to August 2023. Source: CoinGecko

According to another interpretation of the bear market concept, Bitcoin may not be in a bear market at this time.

Some traditional definitions indicate that a bear market occurs when a market index or asset declines by 20% or more from its recent peak.

Data from CoinGecko shows that Bitcoin’s latest high was in mid-July 2023, around $31,400. Currently, Bitcoin is approximately 13% below that figure. Additionally, the cryptocurrency has risen by 34% over the past year.

“If you take a broader view, Bitcoin appears as one significant green candle and has been in a continuous bull market since 2019. Those who concentrate on shorter timeframes may perceive a bear market,” remarked Samson Mow, CEO of Jan3, in a conversation with Cointelegraph.

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The Bitcoin proponent also suggested that he views the current market conditions as “very bullish,” citing factors such as high inflation, diminishing purchasing power, escalating debt, and adoption by countries like El Salvador. Mow also articulated his own definition of a bear market:

“A bear market is what high time preference crypto investors experience periodically.”

Greenspan from Quantum Economics supported Mow’s comments, asserting that Bitcoin has never truly been in a bear market. “By considering the longest time frames for both past occurrences and future expectations, we can conclude that Bitcoin has always been and will always be in a bull market,” he stated.

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