Bitcoin halving cycle suggests Q4 timing as informed investors prepare for potential gains.

Bitcoin (BTC) is “much more likely” to remain rangebound until at least Q4, 2023, as stated by veteran market participant Filbfilb.

In an X thread dated Aug. 25, the well-known analyst and co-founder of the trading platform Decentrader advised followers to anticipate stagnant BTC price movements as the year concludes.

Filbfilb: BTC price nearing "critical time"

While Bitcoin may be disappointing bullish investors following its 70% gains in Q1, Filbfilb believes that the current BTC price behavior during this halving cycle is not significantly different from previous cycles.

“Bitcoin is 1200 days since the last halving. Historically, Bitcoin has consolidated during this timeframe,” he clarified.

By sharing various comparative charts, Filbfilb forecasted that miners are likely to start pushing prices higher as the Bitcoin halving approaches — typically occurring around 1,276 days after each previous halving.

“Miners are motivated to ensure that prices remain well above marginal costs prior to the halving. Whether they consciously collude or not, they are collectively incentivized to elevate prices before their marginal revenue is effectively halved,” he noted, adding that smart capital interested in “buying the rumor” regarding the halving’s potential positive influence on BTC prices has also supported the market in past years.

Counting 1,276 days from the 2020 halving suggests early November as a possible timeframe for such activity to manifest.

“From a timing standpoint, Q4 appears to be a crucial period for BTC, where we are likely to see supply tightened and new investments driven by speculation,” Filbfilb projected.

“Until then, it would be unusual for Bitcoin to break upward; it is much more likely to consolidate.”

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Filbfilb/X

Macro risk to Bitcoin remains "elephant in the room"

However, in the interim, various challenges may arise for Bitcoin, particularly concerning United States macroeconomic policy.

Related: Bitcoin could be worth less than $20K in 2023, US inflation data indicates

The upcoming September meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which will determine benchmark interest rates, is especially significant for risk asset bulls.

Filbfilb characterized the macroeconomic factor as “clearly the elephant in the room.”

“If that can remain stable, then I believe the game theory will unfold, and Bitcoin will convincingly surpass $30k before the end of 2023,” he stated.

In the event of a more pessimistic scenario where Bitcoin drops to $20,000, the current 2023 local peak of $31,800 may hold.

“I would suggest that if that occurs and lasts for anything other than a very brief period, then the pre-halving surge may only take us to the 2023 highs already observed, and breaking that would happen later,” he concluded.

Potential BTC/USD scenarios. Source: Filbfilb/X

As Cointelegraph reported, other analysts are also tracking the days between halvings, with differing BTC price forecasts resulting from their analyses.

Asset management firm Pantera Capital recently set a target of $35,000 for the next halving and $148,000 for after the 2024 event, while another recent forecast indicated that $100,000 would not occur under any circumstances before that time.

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This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading decision carries risk, and readers should perform their own research before making any choices.