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Your day-ahead look for March 13, 2026
Bitcoin’s gaining traction. (PublicDomainArchive/Pixabay modified by CoinDesk)
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By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless specified otherwise)
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Bitcoin appears to be building bullish momentum, with increased volatility anticipated as prices approach a $3 billion trigger point.
The foremost cryptocurrency by market capitalization surged past $72,100 during European trading hours, surpassing the widely monitored average price over the previous 50 days. Analysts indicate that a decisive move above this threshold would affirm bullish momentum, potentially attracting additional buyers.
Volatility is expected to rise as prices approach $75,000. At this level, options market makers, who facilitate liquidity in the order book and ensure smooth trading, are reportedly maintaining net “short gamma” positions valued at $3 billion, as noted by Markus Thielen, the founder of 10x Research.
This suggests that as prices rise toward that point, these market participants are likely to purchase to rebalance their net exposure to neutral, even as prices increase. Such dealer hedging could enhance market volatility, possibly intensifying any rally. It is important to note that market makers generate revenue through the bid-ask spread rather than through price direction.
“The options market indicates approximately $3 billion of negative gamma exposure at the $75,000 strike, signifying that dealers are likely short gamma around this price point. As Bitcoin progresses higher toward this area, dealer hedging activities may start to significantly influence price movements,” Thielen stated in a communication to clients.
However, this is not a guaranteed outcome. Alex Kuptsikevich, the chief market analyst at FxPro, expresses concerns that macroeconomic headwinds may hinder Bitcoin’s gains.
Indeed, traditional markets are signaling risk aversion. A significant indication comes from the U.S. Treasury market, which is foundational to global finance. The MOVE index, which gauges the expected price fluctuations in Treasury notes over 30 days, surged over 21% to 95 points on Thursday, marking the largest single-day increase since October 2024, according to data provider TradingView.
Sudden increases in Treasury volatility commonly tighten money supply globally, restricting credit flows and triggering widespread selling across markets. Stay vigilant!
Read more: For insights into today’s movements in altcoins and derivatives, refer to Crypto Markets Today
What to Watch
For a more detailed list of events this week, refer to CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
- Crypto
- No events scheduled.
- Macro
- March 13, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. GDP growth rate QoQ second estimate for Q4 Est. 1.4% (Prev. 1.4%;)
- March 13, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. core PCE price index MoM for January Est. 0.4% (Prev. 0.4%)
- March 13, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. personal spending MoM for January Est. 0.3% (Prev. 0.4%)
- March 13, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. JOLTS job openings for January Est. 6.7M (Prev. 6.542M)
- March 13, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. Michigan consumer sentiment preliminary for March (Prev. 56.6)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- March 13: Bit Digital (BTBT), pre-market, -$0.01
Token Events
For a more detailed list of events this week, refer to CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
- Governance votes & calls
- No significant calls scheduled.
- Unlocks
- March 13: WhiteBit Coin (WBT) will unlock 27.77% of its circulating supply valued at $4.59 billion.
- Token Launches
- March 13: Ether.fi KAT token rewards will be distributed.
Conferences
For a more detailed list of events this week, refer to CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
- Day 5 of 5: Policy Week 2026 (Sydney, Australia)
- Day 2 of 4: ETHMumbai (Mumbai, India)
Market Movements
- BTC is up 2.95% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $72,457.14 (24hrs: +3.14%)
- ETH is up 2.92% at $2,128.69 (24hrs: +3%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 3.14% at 2,068.83 (24hrs: +3.01%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 1 bps at 2.79%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0015% (1.6688% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is up 0.42% at 100.16.
- Gold futures are down 0.44% at $5,093.40
- Silver futures are down 2.11% at $82.89
- Nikkei 225 closed down 1.16% at 53,819.61
- Hang Seng closed down 0.98% at 25,465.60
- FTSE 100 is down 0.43% at 10,260.60
- Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.71% at 5,708.34
- DJIA closed on Thursday down 1.56% at 46,677.85.
- S&P 500 closed down 1.52% at 6,672.62
- Nasdaq Composite closed down 1.78% at 22,311.98
- S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.84% at 32,840.60
- S&P 40 Latin America closed up 1.43% at 3,611.39.
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 6 bps at 4.27%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.30% at 6,697.75
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.29% at 24,631.50
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.34% at 46,881.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 59.44% (0.24%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.0294 (0.01%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 984 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $31.34
- Total fees: 2.69 BTC / $188,598
- CME Futures Open Interest: 110,290 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 14.2 oz.
- BTC vs gold market cap:
