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Bitcoin faces a potential 15% drop by October, but a rise to $100K is expected in 2026 — Analysis
According to a seasoned market analyst, Bitcoin (BTC) may very well fall below the $25,000 threshold next month.
In a fresh BTC price forecast, Timothy Peterson, the founder and investment manager at Cane Island Alternative Advisors, indicated that the likelihood of a decline to local lows stands at 50/50.
BTC price might experience “final major dip” in September
While Bitcoin enthusiasts strive for a breakout above $30,000, several prominent traders and analysts are focusing on lower price points.
Peterson, recognized for his technical analysis, now suggests that the customary performance in August and September could lead to a retreat to the $25,000 level.
By sharing a chart of monthly performance data for BTC/USD on X (previously known as Twitter), he concluded that a “final major dip” could occur before the end of September. In other words, BTC’s price could decline by over 15% in the upcoming six weeks.
“There is a 50% probability that bitcoin will fall below $25,000 prior to the conclusion of September,” the accompanying commentary mentioned.
“This would represent the last significant dip before the next major bull run begins.”
BTC/USD monthly returns comparison. Source: Timothy Peterson/X
As Cointelegraph highlighted, September is historically a challenging month for Bitcoin bulls. Since 2017, BTC’s price movement has concluded the month lower than its starting point each year.
August, on the other hand, presents a mixed scenario, with either slight gains or minimal losses, with 2017 being a notable exception.
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Bitcoin Lowest Price Forward predicts $100,000 by mid-2026
Furthermore, Peterson reiterated his optimistic stance on Bitcoin.
Related: Bitcoin price could go ‘full bull’ next month if the 200-week trendline holds
Alongside predicting a final substantial pullback before the bullish phase, recent analysis indicated a timeline of less than 1,000 days — under three years — for BTC/USD to reach an impressive $100,000.
This information stems from the “Lowest Price Forward” metric, which provides price forecasts for specific future dates.
Previously recognized as a calculator for Bitcoin’s “never look back price,” it is noted for accurately predicting Bitcoin’s last visit to $10,000 in September 2020.
“If you dismissed Bitcoin’s ‘Lowest Price Forward’ trend due to the downturn in 2022, keep in mind that Bitcoin’s price typically dips below the trend after a bear market,” a confident Peterson stated in an X post on Aug. 8.
“Bear markets are for patience, not skepticism. Bitcoin is less than 1000 days away from $100K.”
Bitcoin Lowest Price Forward annotated chart. Source: Timothy Peterson/X
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This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading activities carry risks, and readers should perform their own research when making decisions.
