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Bitcoin enthusiasts identify signs of a potential bottom as long-standing skeptics celebrate their success.
The Financial Times and Peter Schiff were among the no-coiners celebrating as cryptocurrency plummeted this week.
Crypto bears, for the time being, have claimed victory (Midjourney/Modified by CoinDesk)
Key points:
- Longstanding no-coiners were celebrating this week as cryptocurrency markets declined.
- According to the FT’s Jemima Kelly, Bitcoin is still $69,000 (or $70,000) too high.
- Peter Schiff and the FT highlighted that Michael Saylor’s Strategy is currently at a loss from its more than five-year bitcoin purchasing initiative.
As the prolonged decline in cryptocurrency intensified into a steep drop last week, bullish investors were desperately seeking technical indicators, or possibly rumors about the collapse of some leveraged hedge fund, that might suggest a potential bottom for this bearish market.
Perhaps the most definitive indicator of a bottom could be the reactions from those who have consistently maintained a bearish outlook on bitcoin as its value increased from $0 to over $100,000 throughout its 16-year history.
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Over the years, the Financial Times has undoubtedly stood out among traditional media in its unwavering opposition to bitcoin and cryptocurrency. The London publication’s group of exceptionally skilled writers has seemingly never deviated from a strict no-coiner position, and this week marked a significant moment for them.
“Bitcoin is still approximately $69,000 too high,” was the title of a Sunday article by the FT’s Jemima Kelly that effectively encapsulated Kelly’s and the FT’s overall perspective over the past decade. [The FT later revised the headline to “$70,000 too high” after bitcoin increased overnight].
“Since its inception, bitcoin has embarked on a path that will culminate in its demise,” Kelly wrote. “This week has illustrated that the pool of ‘greater fools’ that bitcoin relies on is diminishing,” she added. “The narratives that have sustained crypto are proving to be just that. Individuals are starting to realize that there is no foundational value in something based solely on mere speculation.”
Earlier this week, as the bitcoin price fell below the $76,000 average cost basis of BTC treasury giant Strategy (MSTR), the FT’s Craig Coben wrote, “Strategy’s long road to nowhere.”
With the stock already down approximately 80% from its peak in late 2024, Coben stated in February 2026, “Management faces no secure options — only various routes to eroding shareholder value … it is challenging to justify investing in a vehicle that has merely broken even on its investments over five years.”
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“Like an enormous mastodon trapped in La Brea tar pits,” Coben concluded. “Strategy is struggling to find a way out.”
Peter Schiff’s contribution
With gold — despite some recent fluctuations — continuing in a significant bull cycle, longtime gold supporter and bitcoin detractor Peter Schiff was also in high spirits.
“According to Michael Saylor, bitcoin is the top-performing asset globally,” he remarked on Tuesday. “Yet Strategy has invested over $54 billion in bitcoin over the last five years, and at present, the company is experiencing a roughly 3% loss on that investment. I anticipate that losses over the next five years will be significantly larger!”
“With bitcoin below $76,000, it is now equivalent to 15 ounces of gold, down 59% from its November 2021 peak,” Schiff added. “Bitcoin is in a prolonged bear market when valued in gold.”
Additional indicators
“I refuse to try to time the market,” former hedge fund manager Hugh Hendry once stated. “Monkeys waste their time attempting to time the market.”
As Hendry pointed out, it is likely prudent not to overly complicate timing one’s purchases based on headlines like those from the FT this week. However, it is reasonably safe to suggest that some form of bottoming process is in progress.
In other developments this week that would unlikely be associated with market highs, it appears that investor appetite for Tether is diminishing. With the cryptocurrency market still lively late last year, it was reported that the stablecoin issuing giant was negotiating to raise $15-$20 billion at a potential $500 billion valuation.
However, according to a Tuesday report from the FT, investors seem to be resisting that valuation, and capital-raising efforts may only amount to around $5 billion.
For its part, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino informed the FT that the initial reports of a $15-$20 billion capital raise were a “misunderstanding,” asserting that Tether had received substantial interest at that $500 billion valuation.
Nevertheless, as the report indicated, investors have privately expressed concerns regarding that elevated valuation. The situation is fluid, and a rally in the cryptocurrency market could swiftly alter sentiment.
