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Your day-ahead look for March 12, 2026
Bitcoin options indicate that some traders are concerned the price may not be as sturdy as it appears. (Peggy_Marco/Pixabay modified by CoinDesk)
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By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless stated otherwise)
Extremely pessimistic predictions are receiving little attention from market analysts, and justifiably so, with bitcoin remaining robust amidst tumult in global markets. However, options activity suggests there might be validity to the bears’ grave concerns.
Bloomberg has reiterated its forecast for the leading cryptocurrency to drop to $10,000 — a threshold last reached in mid-2020. Industry experts have dismissed this as absurd.
On Deribit, the largest crypto options exchange, nearly $800 million in open interest is concentrated in the $20,000 put, indicating a bet that the price will decline to that point. This is the fourth-most favored bearish position on the exchange.
This suggests some traders are gearing up for a significant downturn. Nonetheless, not all positions are outright speculation on a price decline, according to Deribit.
"Most of that positioning appears to be short puts rather than directional long hedges,” stated Sidrah Fariq, Deribit’s global head of retail sales. "Traders frequently sell very far OTM puts because the likelihood of reaching those levels is minimal."
Meanwhile, bitcoin continues to exhibit remarkable resilience, maintaining a level around $70,000 even as a renewed oil surge pushed crude prices toward $100 earlier today, unsettling traditional markets. Ether (ETH), XRP, and solana (SOL) are also showing stability, while Hyperliquid’s HYPE token gains attention with approximately 10% growth over the last 24 hours.
Analysts suggest that excessive leverage is being eliminated from BTC, setting the stage for potential upward movement.
"From a market structure standpoint, this kind of consolidation can be beneficial because decreasing leveraged positions usually creates a more stable base for the next movement when a clearer macro catalyst appears,” said Diana Pires, VP of sales at crypto platform sFOX, in an email.
In traditional markets, volatility in oil seems to be affecting bonds. The MOVE index, which gauges the 30-day expected volatility in U.S. Treasury notes that support global finance, has increased to 76 from under 60 in late February. This could result in financial tightening globally, exerting pressure on risk assets. Stay vigilant!
Related Posts
Read more: For insights into today’s trends in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to Watch
For a detailed list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s "Crypto Week Ahead".
- Crypto
- March 12: Polkadot’s economic upgrade to commence, featuring a DOT supply limit, a reduction in emissions, and decreased unbonding.
- March 12, 1 p.m.: MARA to conduct an X Spaces session with its CEO, CFO, and Chief Growth & Strategy Officer.
- March 12: BOB mainnet to experience its Jovian hardfork.
- Macro
- March 12, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. initial jobless claims for week ending March 7 Est. 215K (Prev. 213K)
- March 12, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. trade balance for January Est. -$66.6B (Prev. -$70.3B)
- March 12, 4:30 p.m.: Fed balance sheet for period ending March 11 (Prev. $6.63T)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- March 12: Cango (CANG), post-market, -$0.34
Token Events
For a detailed list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s "Crypto Week Ahead".
- Governance votes & calls
- Arbitrum DAO is voting to establish an operational directive that will automatically consolidate idle and surplus non-ARB funds from DAO initiatives directly into the Arbitrum Treasury Management Company (ATMC) portfolio. Voting ends March 12.
- Arbitrum DAO is voting to implement a delegated voting power (DVP) quorum model, revise its constitution, and allow on-chain proposal cancellations. Voting ends March 12.
- CoW DAO is voting on a swap affiliate initiative to reward affiliates who refer new retail traders and those who achieve qualifying volume milestones, with a total of up to 500,000 USDC allocated over a six-month pilot. Voting ends March 12.
- World Liberty Financial DAO is voting to introduce a WLFI governance staking system that mandates unlocked token holders to stake (minimum 180-day lock) to engage in governance. Voting ends March 12.
- Unlocks
- March 12: Aptos to unlock 0.69% of its circulating supply worth $11.21 million
- Token Launches
- March 12: ForU AI’s (FORU) token generation event takes place.
Conferences
For a detailed list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s "Crypto Week Ahead".
- Day 4 of 5: Policy Week 2026 (Sydney, Australia)
- Day 1 of 4: ETHMumbai (Mumbai, India)
Market Movements
- BTC is up 0.12% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $70,400.41. (24hrs: +1.11%)
- ETH is steady at $2,071.35 (24hrs: +2.21%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 0.4% at 2,008.02 (24hrs: +1.32%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate has decreased by 1 basis point to 2.79%
- BTC funding rate is at -0.0048% (-5.2188% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is stable at 99.36
- Gold futures are up 0.43% at $5,189.60
- Silver futures are up 2.38% at $87.09
- Nikkei 225 closed down 1.04% at 54,452.96
- Hang Seng closed down 0.70% at 25,716.76
- FTSE 100 is down 0.33% at 10,320.02
- Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.43% at 5
