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Benjamin Cowen, the founder of Into The Cryptoverse and a well-regarded analyst, anticipates a difficult September for Bitcoin, referencing historical trends that indicate a downward path for the leading cryptocurrency.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at around $25,860. The cryptocurrency has faced pressure lately, following an impressive 60% increase from its lows in November 2022. However, market sentiment has been affected by incidents such as the collapse of FTX and the insolvency of various centralized finance (CeFi) lending platforms, including BlockFi. As a result, Bitcoin has retraced from its peak of approximately $31,800 in July 2023.
August turned out to be a tumultuous month for Bitcoin, as bearish movements erased all gains from July, leading to an approximate 20% decline from July’s highs. A significant drop on August 17 sent ripples through the market.
Cowen’s analysis indicates that Bitcoin recorded an 11.31% loss in August, slightly better than the average of the last two pre-halving years, where the average return for that month was -11.71%. Nevertheless, Cowen’s forecast for BTC in September appears even more negative.
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Referring to historical data, Cowen observed that prices typically decline in September prior to a Bitcoin halving event—the average return for September before the last halving was -17.29%. If this historical pattern continues, Bitcoin could fall to $21,400 by the end of September.
However, taking into account the somewhat “brighter” historical performance of Bitcoin in September during the previous two halving cycles, which recorded an average return of -5.66%, it suggests that BTC might settle around $24,400 by the end of this month. Even with this more favorable outlook, it indicates that Bitcoin could still face additional downward pressure in the upcoming weeks.
Despite the short-term hurdles and price volatility, Bitcoin advocates remain optimistic about the medium to long term. They are particularly hopeful that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will greenlight a spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF). Such approval could draw in institutional investors, potentially increasing demand for BTC and aiding its recovery.
Bitcoin continues to be in a state of flux, with its price movements closely observed by market participants and investors who are eagerly awaiting regulatory outcomes and broader market trends to ascertain its future direction.
The post Bitcoin Drop Before Halving Expected: Will It Get Worse In September? appeared first on BitcoinWorld.
