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Bitcoin (BTC) remained under $26,000 as the weekly close approached on September 3, with analysis dismissing excessively pessimistic trader sentiment.
BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
BTC price weekly close highlights $25,900
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView indicated that BTC price experienced minimal volatility over the weekend, fluctuating within a narrow $200 range.
The lack of clear direction created a strong sense of familiarity for market participants, reminiscent of the behavior observed during the August monthly close.
With the effects of last week’s two volatility events—related to crypto asset manager Grayscale and U.S. regulators—completely absent from the charts, traders assessed the implications of various potential weekly close levels.
“In terms of market structure, we have yet to see a candle body close below June’s higher low or $25.9K,” noted popular trader Skew in a thread on X (formerly Twitter).
Skew mentioned a higher low (HL) below $25,000, identifying $25,900 as the critical level to reclaim this week.
“This is significant because if the weekly close is below this level and the price encounters this area as resistance early next week, it would suggest a downward movement towards the previous weekly resistance around $24.3K,” he added.
BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Skew/X
Looking ahead, a “bearish scenario” could reintroduce sub-$20,000 levels. Conversely, a bullish recovery, which would involve reclaiming $26,000 and establishing a higher low for Q4, was deemed “less likely,” according to Skew.
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Bitcoin “bearadise” risk persists
Reflecting on the events of the previous week, Keith Alan, co-founder of the monitoring resource Material Indicators, warned against definitive claims regarding Bitcoin’s bullish or bearish stance.
Related: Bitcoin prepares for RSI confrontation as BTC price approaches a new 2-week low
Volatility in both directions stemmed from Grayscale’s legal win against the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), followed by the SEC’s postponement of a decision on the first U.S. Bitcoin spot price exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
However, Alan contended that the underlying Bitcoin market structure has not experienced any fundamental changes.
“On the first day of the September monthly candle, volatility persists as traders who appear to have forgotten ‘the trend is your friend’ are holding onto unrealistic hopes and debating narratives that align with their biases,” he stated in part of an X post on September 2.
“The reality is NOTHING HAS CHANGED, as neither a breakout nor a breakdown has been technically confirmed or invalidated.”
Reiterating an existing theory, Alan emphasized that $24,750 is the support level to monitor, with Bitcoin’s “bearadise” at risk of being triggered if it fails to hold.
An accompanying chart illustrated the BTC/USD order book on Binance, showing an increase in buy liquidity just below the spot price at the $24,750 area of interest.
BTC/USD order book data for Binance. Source: Keith Alan/X
This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading decision carries risk, and readers should perform their own research before making any decisions.
