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A close beneath $67,300 for bitcoin would signify six consecutive monthly declines amid persistent macroeconomic pressures.
Key points:
- With only a few hours remaining in March, bitcoin is down approximately 1% for the month and is poised to match a rare six-month losing streak seen only once before.
- In all previous bear markets, bitcoin has dipped below its 200-week moving average and realized price; it has not yet deviated from this pattern.
Bitcoin is on course to tie a record of six successive monthly declines, previously set between August 2018 and January 2019, as per Coinglass data.
Currently priced at $66,600, BTC would need to increase by slightly more than 1% over the next 15 hours to finish above the $67,300 mark at which it began the month.
Data from Coinglass indicates that bitcoin experienced a 4% decline in October, an 18% drop in November, and a 3% decrease in December. The downward trend continued into 2026, with a 10% reduction in January, a 15% fall in February, and March presently showing a decline of about 1%.
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The last occurrence of bitcoin recording six successive down months was from August 2018 to January 2019. That timeframe was succeeded by five straight months of increases, providing bitcoin bulls with a modest historical reference for a possible rebound.
Downside risks persist
In contrast to the 2019 scenario, the current technical indicators and macroeconomic conditions imply that the downward pressure may continue.
Bitcoin is still above critical long-term support levels, including its 200-week moving average at $59,268 and its realized price — the average on-chain cost basis — at $54,177, according to Glassnode data. Historically, bitcoin has generally dropped below both thresholds and remained there for an extended period during prior bear markets.
200WMA + realized Price (Glassnode)
Macroeconomic conditions also present challenges. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has kept oil prices above $100 per barrel for over a month, complicating central banks’ policy decisions regarding interest rate cuts or further tightening. Additionally, renewed apprehensions surrounding quantum computing risks have introduced another layer of uncertainty.
One potential positive development is that bitcoin has shown a slight increase since the beginning of the Middle East conflict, indicating some resilience despite the broader risk-averse environment.
