“‘Avoid selling during dark green periods’ — Strategies for trading the 2024 Bitcoin halving”

Bitcoin (BTC) is moving into prime “buy the dip” territory as the countdown to the 2024 block subsidy halving continues.

This assessment comes from several prominent market participants this month, with Bitcoin just a year away from its “very intriguing” upcoming halving.

Bitcoin vs. the halving: Is it time to purchase?

Bitcoin halving cycles are recognized for exhibiting patterns in price movements over specific timeframes.

These four-year “epochs” have historically included a macro high and macro low for BTC prices, with these occurrences also spaced four years apart.

Additionally, in each cycle, the macro low has typically been observed slightly more than a year prior to the next halving. For veteran Bitcoin figures, including crypto media expert Pete Rizzo, there is little reason to expect that the future will be significantly different.

“A small reminder the world's most valuable money is only designed to get more scarce. Plan accordingly,” he noted in part of a tweet on May 12.

Rizzo was marking the three-year anniversary of the 2020 halving, and an accompanying chart highlighted BTC price behavior in relation to the number of months remaining before a halving event.

BTC/USD monthly chart with time to halvings marked. Source: Pete Rizzo/ Twitter

Investor and entrepreneur Alistair Milne further commented, suggesting that for those aiming to gain from BTC exposure, the optimal time to buy is now, while the months leading up to the halving are less advantageous for entry points.

“Don't short when it's dark green and be all in before it's blue…,” he summarized regarding the chart’s information.

PlanB: 2024 halving “not factored in”

Earlier in the month, another well-known yet contentious figure in the Bitcoin industry utilized the same halving narrative to assert that the price cycles were not coincidental.

Related: Bitcoin Halving: How it works and Why it matters

In a post of his own, PlanB, the pseudonymous creator of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) series of Bitcoin price forecasting models, stated that half of market participants viewed the connection between halvings and price as random.

His remarks were made in the context of how halvings relate to S2F, a theory that continues to face significant criticism due to missed price targets from 2021 onward.

Nonetheless, for PlanB, BTC/USD remains undervalued, with the forthcoming halving not yet receiving adequate market recognition.

“Why is bitcoin S2F/halving not priced in? Because ~50% thinks the BTC price jumps after last 3 halvings (red) are a coincidence,” he wrote alongside an illustrative chart.

“Halvings are key to S2F, but these critics focus on auto-correlation between halvings and conclude there is no relation between S2F/halvings and price. I disagree, obviously. 2024 halving will be very interesting!”

Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow chart. Source: PlanB/ Twitter

In a follow-up discussion, PlanB referred to the concept of Bitcoin price rising as halvings reduce available supply, or “flow,” as a “no-brainer.”

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This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading decision carries risk, and readers should perform their own research before making a choice.