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Hayes suggested that Hyperliquid’s robust revenue, authentic trading activity, and controlled token supply may drive the token to achieve new peaks.
Reasons for Arthur Hayes’ optimism: In a conversation with CoinDesk’s Jennifer Sanasie on Markets Outlook, Hayes remarked that Hyperliquid distinguishes itself from other perpetual futures exchanges through actual usage rather than volume driven by incentives.
- Hayes informed Sanasie that he liquidated his firm’s HYPE position around the $50–$55 mark in anticipation of imminent token unlock pressure but became optimistic again after the team opted not to sell the majority of its monthly token distributions.
- He indicated that Hyperliquid continues to achieve nearly a $1 billion annualized revenue run rate based on 30-day fee statistics.
- The platform’s HIP-3 permissionless listing feature has broadened trading opportunities beyond cryptocurrency to include assets such as oil and equity indices.
Factors driving engagement: Hayes noted that traders are increasingly utilizing Hyperliquid to access markets that are not available via traditional platforms.
- Retail investors can engage in trading assets like oil or Nasdaq proxies around the clock on-chain using stablecoins and crypto wallets.
- Hayes mentioned that leverage of 10x–20x is frequently accessible, in contrast to the 2x–3x available to many retail traders on conventional brokerage platforms.
- Geopolitical developments during weekends, such as sudden conflict announcements, have prompted traders to turn to Hyperliquid while traditional markets remain closed.
What makes Hyperliquid unique: Hayes contended that Hyperliquid’s liquidity and trading indicators reflect more authentic market activity compared to competing decentralized exchanges.
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- According to Hayes, many rival platforms depend on wash trading or token incentive schemes to artificially inflate activity.
- He assesses exchanges based on the trading volume to open interest ratio, which he claims helps reveal genuine trading demand.
- Hayes stated that Hyperliquid has the lowest ratio among leading perpetual DEXs, suggesting a greater level of “real” trading.
- He added that the platform provides the least slippage for substantial bitcoin perpetual trades ranging from $100,000 to $10 million.
Potential challenges to the thesis: Hayes acknowledged that increasing hype and heightened competition could indicate a possible exit point.
- He mentioned he would reevaluate his stance if HYPE’s price-to-earnings ratio significantly increases and market sentiment turns overwhelmingly positive.
- Another concern is whether competitors with lower fees can diminish Hyperliquid’s approximately 70% share of perpetual DEX revenue.
- Hayes emphasized that maintaining healthy revenue and continued restraint in team token sales are crucial for upholding the bullish outlook.
Beyond HYPE: Hayes also pointed out privacy-oriented crypto projects as an emerging narrative.
- He suggested that Zcash could gain from rising worries regarding blockchain surveillance and AI-driven transaction analysis.
- Hayes mentioned Zcash’s cryptographic advancements and privacy framework as reasons for his preference over alternatives such as Monero.
Bitcoin forecast: Hayes reiterated his bullish outlook for Bitcoin.
- He reaffirmed that Bitcoin could achieve $250,000 by year-end despite not hitting earlier projections.
