XRP faces significant decline with more than $50 billion in unrealized losses as 60% of its supply falls below break-even.

XRP continues to face considerable pressure as the recent oil crisis and general market anxiety drive investors towards a more cautious approach.

The digital asset associated with Ripple has decreased by 26% this year, currently priced at approximately $1.34, and has dropped 54% over the last six months, as per data from CryptoSlate. In the most recent 24-hour period, XRP fell from around $1.37 to a low of $1.33 before bouncing back to nearly $1.35 at the time of reporting.

This movement is relatively modest by cryptocurrency standards. However, the broader implication arises from on-chain and exchange data indicating a market still navigating a substantial number of holders experiencing losses, alongside a trading environment that has diminished in depth.

According to Glassnode data, approximately 36.8 billion XRP are currently held at a loss based on present prices. In monetary terms, these unrealized losses total around $50.8 billion, representing roughly 60% of the circulating supply.

XRP's Total Supply In Loss (Source: Glassnode)

This situation leaves a significant number of investors still at a loss, likely prompting them to reduce their exposure as the price nears their entry points.

This dynamic clarifies why XRP has had difficulty converting brief recoveries into a more sustained upward trend.

When a large portion of the supply is priced below the cost basis, rallies can encounter a consistent influx of sellers aiming to exit closer to breakeven. In such a scenario, price strength must not only attract momentum buyers but also absorb the remaining supply from earlier holders.

Simultaneously, the macroeconomic environment has intensified the pressure.

Increasing oil prices and the broader repricing of risk assets have led traders to reevaluate their exposure to digital tokens, particularly older, more liquid assets that tend to react swiftly when sentiment shifts.

XRP has been affected by this adjustment, although its internal positioning indicates that the market was already susceptible to renewed selling.

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XRP's cost basis near $1.44 is shaping the market

The most significant level in the market is around $1.44, where Glassnode identifies XRP’s realized price. The realized price is commonly utilized as an on-chain indicator for the aggregate cost basis of holders.

When spot prices fall below this threshold, the average holder is at a loss. This situation frequently alters the behavior of rallies, transforming them into chances to restore the balance sheet.

For XRP, this cost-basis gap has become pivotal to the market’s framework.

With XRP trading at approximately $1.35 and a realized price of about $1.44, the token remains below the level at which the broader holder base starts to return to profitability. This positions the next significant recovery zone directly in an area where selling pressure may accumulate.

Additional on-chain indicators corroborate this perspective. Glassnode’s Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) remains below 1, suggesting that coins transacting on-chain are being spent at a loss on average.

Concurrently, XRP's Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) is also negative, indicating that the market overall remains in a state of aggregate loss.

Collectively, these indicators suggest a market that has yet to exit its loss regime.

However, these indicators do not imply that XRP’s price cannot experience a rally. Instead, they indicate that the threshold for a sustained rally is elevated.

This implies that XRP requires sufficient new demand to absorb a significant block of supply held by investors who have been waiting for more favorable exit points. Until this occurs, the realized-price band is likely to remain a reference for both bullish and bearish participants.

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Sell-side aggression is showing up across order flow and derivatives

The institutional landscape has also become less favorable for any upward trend in XRP.

Data from SoSoValue indicates that spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) products experienced their third weekly outflow of the year in the week ending March 6, with approximately $5 million exiting the funds.

These products still reflect around $70 million in net inflows for the year; however, the recent shift suggests that some allocators have become more discerning amid rising market volatility.

For context, CoinShares data reveals that XRP-focused investment products are the poorest performers this month, with over $30 million in outflows.

Crypto Investment Products Flows (Source: CoinShares)

The flow data indicates a slight pullback rather than a collapse. In a market already burdened with a large block of underwater supply, even minor shifts in demand can have a significant impact.

XRP may remain under pressure without a widespread institutional retreat if new buying slows while existing holders utilize strength to reduce their positions.

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Meanwhile, the derivatives market also indicates a decline in participation. Total XRP open interest has dropped to approximately $2.25 billion, the lowest level since January 2025.

XRP's Open Interest (Source: Coinglass)

Open interest measures the value of outstanding futures contracts and is often regarded as an indicator of speculative interest. Such a significant decline suggests that traders have been closing positions and reducing directional exposure rather than increasing leverage.

This caution is also evident in the digital asset’s order flow, where aggressive sell orders dominate the market.

CryptoQuant’s taker buy-sell ratio is around 0.912, indicating that aggressive sell orders surpass aggressive buy orders.

XRP's Taker-Buyer Ratio on Binance (Source: CryptoQuant)

In practical terms, the side providing liquidity is primarily composed of sellers. This situation results in buyers supplying liquidity through resting limit orders rather than driving the market higher with market orders.

With XRP trading at approximately $1.34, this imbalance reinforces the notion that the market lacks robust, aggressive demand.

Although XRP buyers are still present in the order book, they are not pushing the price upward with urgency.

This signal aligns with the broader context. A market can stabilize temporarily while passive buyers absorb incoming supply, but prices typically struggle to gain momentum when the more aggressive side of the flow is dominated by sellers.

The combination of these factors leaves XRP with diminished upward momentum.

In stronger market phases, increasing open interest can bolster a spot move and add urgency to the trading activity. In the current situation, a smaller open interest base means the price is more reliant on direct spot buying to overcome resistance.

However, this is not occurring as the market is presently dominated by sellers.

Thin exchange activity raises market’s sensitivity

Exchange data indicates that activity has decreased in ways that could lead to more abrupt movements in the future.

CryptoQuant’s 30-day XRP volume z-score on Binance is approximately -1.16, suggesting that daily trading volume has dipped below its recent average. The latest figure corresponds to a daily volume of around 27 million XRP while the token trades near current levels.

XRP Trading Volume Momentum (Source: CryptoQuant)

Lower volume does not guarantee a larger price movement. However, it leaves the market with less buffer when orders arrive in significant sizes.

CryptoQuant data also reveals that the net number of active wallets depositing and withdrawing XRP across 15 major exchanges has reached its lowest point since early 2025, with Binance still accounting for the largest share of activity.

XRP Exchange Wallets Interactions (Source: CryptoQuant)

This indicates a market with fewer participants actively repositioning and less urgency from both buyers and sellers.

When wallet activity and trading volume decline concurrently, order books can become thinner, making prices more reactive.

Under such conditions, smaller flows can influence the market more significantly than they would in a deeper environment. A seemingly stable chart can thus conceal a more fragile structure beneath, particularly when macroeconomic news can disrupt sentiment across assets.

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