Which forecasts proved accurate this year? An overlooked model accurately predicted the 2025 market cycle.

At the beginning of 2025, prominent figures in the crypto space made ambitious predictions: Bitcoin reaching $200,000, Ethereum at $7,000, a US strategic reserve, and stablecoins becoming widely adopted.

A year later, the results show a trend. The anticipated price targets largely fell short, while the forecasts regarding regulation, ETFs, and payment infrastructure gradually materialized.

Here’s a breakdown of who was accurate, who missed their targets, and what the disparity between expectations and reality indicates about the functioning of this market.

Bitcoin $200,000, Ethereum $7,000, Solana $750

Bitwise’s December 2024 forecast kicked off with sensational figures: Bitcoin at $200,000, Ethereum at $7,000, and Solana at $750, all fueled by ETF-driven growth and institutional interest.

The hypothesis wasn’t far-fetched, as spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024, attracting tens of billions, and the Trump administration’s supportive stance on crypto suggested ongoing favorable regulatory conditions.

Bitwise’s 2025 forecast anticipated Bitcoin reaching $200,000, Ethereum soaring to $7,000, and Solana advancing to $750 by the end of the year.

However, reality told a different story. Bitcoin peaked at about $126,000 in mid-October but then faced a steep decline due to tariff news and macroeconomic challenges, ending the year in the high-$80,000s.

Ethereum reached just below $5,000 in August and ended around $3,000, while Solana traded in the low-$100s as the year concluded.

While the price predictions were inaccurate, the forecasts regarding regulation and institutional adoption were largely correct.

Bitwise was directionally accurate in predicting that 2025 would mainly be an “up only” year, but the specific price targets were overly ambitious. The firm’s true value lay in forecasting the growth of ETFs and policy changes concerning stablecoins.

For the purpose of price predictions, this falls into the “enthusiastic yet incorrect” category.

Cycle peak in Q1, Bitcoin to $180,000, tokenization at $50B

VanEck’s late-2024 projection anticipated a peak in the first quarter, with Bitcoin reaching $180,000, another all-time high by year-end, and substantial growth in on-chain activity: $50 billion in tokenized securities, $200 billion in DeFi total value locked (TVL), and $30 billion in NFT transactions.

The timing was off. Bitcoin’s peak occurred in October, hitting around $126,000 and never returning to that level after the tariff shock.

The tokenization market maxed out at $19.2 billion, total value locked in DeFi reached $170 billion before declining, and NFT volume was approximately $5.6 billion, all significantly lower than VanEck’s estimates.

VanEck had predicted that tokenized securities would surpass $50 billion in 2025, with private credit leading the growth after a 61% increase in 2024.

VanEck was overly optimistic regarding scale but generally correct that both tokenization and DeFi would see meaningful growth. The firm deserves credit for identifying the trends, although it projected two years of growth instead of just one.

Bitcoin $300,000, Ethereum $8,000, total crypto $10T

HashKey Group’s “Top 10 Market Predictions for 2025” reflected a sentiment snapshot when nearly 50,000 community voters endorsed the most bullish scenario: Bitcoin exceeding $300,000, Ethereum above $8,000, the total crypto market cap at $10 trillion, and USD stablecoins surpassing $300 billion.

The only figure that has held up is the supply of USD-pegged stablecoins, which currently stands at $308 billion.

The stablecoin market capitalization increased from about $200 billion at the start of 2025 to $308 billion by year-end, according to DeFiLlama data.

Bitcoin’s peak was approximately $126,000, Ethereum’s around $4,950, and the overall crypto market stagnated far below $10 trillion.

This prediction serves as a clear representation of the prevailing bullish mindset of 2025.

Bitcoin $185,000, DOGE above $1, miners become AI shops

Galaxy presented one of the most detailed prediction sets for 2025: Bitcoin at $185,000, Ethereum above $5,500, Dogecoin breaking $1, along with ambitious targets for DeFi and NFTs.

They also posited that most public miners would transition into AI and high-performance computing.

Bitcoin and Ethereum fell short of those price targets by roughly 30% and 10%, respectively, and DOGE never reached $1.

However, in terms of structural predictions, Galaxy was much closer. Miners did significantly invest in AI and HPC capabilities throughout 2025.

MARA Holdings, Riot Platforms, and others announced AI computing partnerships and upgraded facilities to meet GPU demand.

Galaxy Research predicted that over half of the top-20 Bitcoin miners would shift towards AI and high-performance computing partnerships in 2025.

This exemplifies a situation where “who was right” depends on whether one prioritized price predictions or business models. Galaxy’s price forecasts largely missed the mark; however, their industry structure prediction was largely accurate.

Bitcoin to $200,000 by year-end

In October, Geoff Kendrick from Standard Chartered reiterated a long-held belief that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, citing Trump’s pro-crypto position and ETF inflows as potential catalysts.

Bitcoin did achieve a new all-time high above $126,000 in early October, but then experienced a significant decline due to tariff announcements, falling roughly 30% from the peak and over 50% below the $200,000 target.

This is a clear miss. Standard Chartered deserves credit for its conviction and for correctly predicting that Bitcoin would reach new highs, but the $200,000 target became a meme as the year ended with BTC in the $80,000s.

Bitcoin peaked around $126,000 in October 2025 before dropping to approximately $88,962 by year-end, failing to meet most price forecasts.

Perma-bulls pointed to Bitcoin at $250,000

Two of the most vocal forecasters of 2025 were BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and Fundstrat’s Tom Lee. Hayes frequently suggested scenarios where Bitcoin would achieve $200,000 to $250,000, and Ethereum would reach $10,000, relying on Fed easing and a potential “doom loop” in sovereign debt.

Lee expressed to various outlets that he anticipated Bitcoin reaching $250,000 in 2025. They experienced the same outcome as Standard Chartered: the cycle peaked at approximately half those levels for BTC and around half for ETH before a dramatic liquidation event in October reset leverage.

Hayes and Lee were not incorrect in asserting that Bitcoin would rise or that macro liquidity was important. They were mistaken regarding the scale and the market’s capacity to sustain rapid increases without a shock.

This exemplifies the perma-bull tax: always optimistic, leading to slightly excessive bullishness.

US strategic Bitcoin reserve, major digital asset legislation, XRP and SOL ETFs

Gemini’s January 22 blog, “Five Crypto Predictions for 2025,” contended that the US would formally establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve, spurred by Trump’s campaign rhetoric and a growing bipartisan interest in alternative reserve assets.

In March, President Trump signed an executive order directing the Treasury to create a “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve,” initially funded with BTC seized from previous enforcement actions, and authorizing further acquisitions subject to congressional approval.

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This is one of the clearest “nailed it” predictions of the year. VanEck also anticipated a reserve, but Gemini’s 2025 version framed the political landscape particularly well.

In the same article, Gemini forecasted that Congress would overcome gridlock to pass comprehensive digital asset legislation, particularly emphasizing a federal stablecoin framework.

The GENIUS Act successfully passed both chambers and was signed in July, establishing a national licensing and reserve framework for dollar-backed stablecoins while explicitly banning algorithmic models.

The broader market structure bill remains under negotiation, but the stablecoin component arrived essentially as Gemini had outlined.

Gemini also anticipated that ETFs would extend beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum, specifically naming Solana and XRP as potential 2025 spot ETF candidates.

Spot Solana ETFs launched in the US on October 28 via Bitwise’s BSOL, attracting over $400 million within the first week. In November, US regulators approved the first spot XRP ETF, following earlier XRP products in Brazil and Europe.

Gemini predicted that spot XRP and Solana ETFs would commence trading in the U.S. in 2025, citing increasing institutional interest.

This is a significant structural prediction that transformed trading in both assets and validated the “ETF-palooza” narrative heading into 2026.

Gemini’s perfect record on non-price predictions makes them the clear leader in the “structural vision” category.

Stablecoins, DeFi, and consumer crypto go mainstream

Coinbase’s 2025 Outlook steered clear of specific price targets and concentrated on three major trends: a more crypto-friendly Congress, stablecoins transitioning from trading mediums to payment solutions, and a resurgence in DeFi.

Delphi Digital similarly forecasted that 2025 would be a “key development node for consumer DeFi,” with on-chain cards and tokenized US stocks becoming part of mainstream applications.

The GENIUS Act and ongoing CLARITY discussions resulted in precisely the “most crypto-friendly Congress in history” dynamic that Coinbase had predicted.

Stablecoins expanded their role as Mastercard, Visa, Stripe, and Shopify began utilizing USDC and other coins for international payments and subscriptions.

DeFi TVL rebounded to about $170 billion, its highest level since late 2021, while on-chain cards and tokenized-stock access in applications like Robinhood supported the consumer-DeFi argument almost point-for-point.

These represent the understated winners. No sensational $200,000 chart, but nearly everything they predicted regarding structure, regulation, and usage largely came to fruition.

Coinbase and Delphi earn the highest accolades for valuable predictions, as they indicated where the market was headed, not merely where prices would surge.

The verdict

The results are evident. Price forecasts were overly optimistic, while structural predictions regarding regulation, ETFs, stablecoins, and infrastructure mostly succeeded.

The firms that emphasized “what will change” rather than “how high will it go” provided the most insights. Gemini achieved a perfect score on non-price predictions.

Coinbase and Delphi accurately captured the thematic progression. Bitwise, VanEck, Galaxy, Standard Chartered, Hayes, and Lee all fell short on their targets but highlighted aspects of the directional narrative.

The takeaway for 2026: disregard the price predictions, focus on the structure.

The individuals who accurately assessed 2025 were not those forecasting $200,000 Bitcoin or $10,000 Ethereum. They were the ones advocating for stablecoin legislation, ETF proliferation, and a user experience overhaul for DeFi. That’s where the genuine value lies.

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