Viernes, fallo de la Corte Suprema podría provocar un inmediato “shock arancelario” que cause una caída debido a la mala valoración del impacto del Bitcoin.

The US Supreme Court is set to reconvene on January 9 after a four-week hiatus, facing a potentially significant economic decision: whether the Trump administration legally enacted extensive tariffs under emergency powers or if these duties on hundreds of billions in imports breached Congressional limitations.

Prediction markets assign the government a mere 23% to 30% chance of success. Treasury officials have hinted at tens of billions in possible refunds and several hundred billion in lost revenue over the next decade if the tariffs are overturned.

In the meantime, Bitcoin options traders are pricing seven-day implied volatility at levels close to multi-month lows, with the 25-delta skew favoring calls. Futures funding remains around 0.0076% to 0.0094% every eight hours, according to CoinGlass data, significantly lower than inflated levels.

The dollar index is trading 9.5% lower than it was a year ago, ten-year Treasury yields are approximately 4.2%, and equity markets concluded 2025 near all-time highs.

The disparity is evident: while Washington and prediction platforms regard Friday as a binary macro event, neither cross-asset markets nor Bitcoin derivatives indicate a clear “tariff shock” premium.

No directional movements, potential for high volatility

Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs were enacted in April 2025 under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a 1977 statute typically reserved for threats to national security.

Two lower courts deemed the tariffs illegal, stating that IEEPA was applied beyond Congressional intent. The Supreme Court heard arguments in November, with justices from various ideological backgrounds expressing skepticism about the government’s stance.

Tariffs implemented under IEEPA comprise about half of total US tariff revenue and contributed to price pressures that made 2025 the dollar’s worst year since 2017. If invalidated, the implications for refunds and revenue could amount to hundreds of billions over the next decade.

Traders at Polymarket estimate a 77% likelihood that the Supreme Court will rule against the Trump administration, while the odds at Kalshi are slightly lower at 69%.

Prediction markets indicate a 23-31% chance that the Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump’s tariffs, based on data from Polymarket and Kalshi.

A niche market where importers sell potential refund claims to hedge funds shows those claims trading for approximately 20-30 cents on the dollar, which macro analysts cross-reference to estimate real-money odds in the 40-45% range.

The difference between prediction market odds and secondary refund claim pricing suggests substantial uncertainty remains, creating the potential for event-driven volatility to surge if the ruling is unexpected.

Bitcoin derivatives also reflect no directional bias among traders, although high volatility could follow the decision.

Deribit’s volatility index (DVOL) increased from 43 on January 1 to a local peak of 46.4 on January 5. Nonetheless, it is currently at one of its lowest points since late November.

Deribit’s volatility index climbed from 43 on January 1 to 46.4 on January 5, nearing its lowest levels since late November. Image: Deribit

Furthermore, the 25-delta call-put skew is slightly negative at around -1.3 vols for both 1-week and 1-month maturities, indicating that short-dated puts are trading marginally richer than equivalent calls.

The difference between tenors is minimal, so the options surface is not indicating a strong directional sentiment surrounding the event. The data reveals only a slight, general preference for downside hedges rather than a speculative upside pursuit.

This coincides with perpetual futures funding hovering around 0.0076% to 0.0094% every eight hours, significantly below the over 0.01% levels that indicate excessive long leverage.

However, Bitcoin futures open interest has already surged above $60 billion, suggesting ample leverage exists in the system, despite neither crash hedges nor upside lottery tickets being particularly sought after.

If the Supreme Court produces an unexpected outcome, the reaction may be less about “new information” and more about how $60 billion of positioning adjusts to the announcement.

Two outcomes, two transmission channels

If the Court upholds the tariffs, it would contradict prediction market odds and take macro desks by surprise.

The implication would be that import prices are higher and more persistent, leading to decreased confidence that inflation will return to target, alongside a tendency towards a stronger dollar and increased real yields.

This scenario is risk-off for equities, and Bitcoin in this context would likely trade alongside other high-beta assets in an immediate selloff reaction, coupled with a stronger DXY and weaker S&P.

The dollar index is currently around 98, approximately 9.5% lower than its peak a year ago in early 2025.

The slower narrative presents a different perspective. Ongoing tariffs reinforce the perception that US policy risk and fiscal fragility are structural. This environment tends to see the resurgence of “digital gold” and “outside money” narratives following initial deleveraging.

This represents a second-leg theme rather than an immediate safe-haven appeal.

From a derivative standpoint, a surprising ruling that upholds tariffs would lead to a sharp increase in the value of short-dated puts, a spike in realized volatility, and a rise in front-end implied volatility.

If the Court invalidates the tariffs, which is currently the more probable outcome, it would confirm the base case in Polymarket, Kalshi, and on Wall Street. Repealing the tariffs would effectively create a disinflationary supply-side shock along with potential corporate stimulus if refunds come to fruition.

Market analysts have characterized this as “rocket fuel” for stocks and a boost for global growth expectations.

The immediate playbook would likely involve a weaker DXY, lower long-end yields, tighter credit spreads, and rising equities. Bitcoin typically benefits during a broader risk-on environment, especially if lower yields reignite the “liquidity and carry” trade that supported 2025’s ETF and basis flows.

The twist is that because this outcome is anticipated, Bitcoin’s response may heavily depend on market positioning. If the market approaches January 9 with only slight front-end implied volatility, moderate funding, and no significant put skew, there is potential for BTC to rise as traders become more risk-oriented.

Conversely, if options and perpetual contracts become heavily long leading into Friday, the classic “good news, sell the fact” scenario could occur, where BTC briefly surges before reverting to its mean.

What “priced in” actually means

Prediction markets suggest that the direction is somewhat priced in, yet neither cross-asset markets nor BTC derivatives display a substantial “tariff shock” premium.

This does not imply that the ruling won’t impact markets. Instead, it indicates that the market’s movement is less contingent on the Court’s decision and more on whether the outcome deviates from existing positioning.

If tariffs are upheld, that would be a true surprise, and the market can anticipate a surge in volatility as traders adjust their views on inflation persistence and the dollar’s strength. If tariffs are overturned, the market’s reaction will depend on whether it has already anticipated the favorable news or still has capacity to pursue risk-on momentum.

The current situation implies that Bitcoin is positioned such that either outcome could trigger a tradable movement, but neither is so predetermined that Friday becomes a non-event.

The ruling may not redefine Bitcoin’s long-term path, but it could clarify which macro narrative prevails in the coming weeks: reflation and dollar strength if tariffs are upheld, or disinflation and risk-on flows if they are rescinded.

The derivatives market is not yet signaling alarm, which suggests that there is still potential for profit in staying attentive.

The post Friday Supreme Court ruling could trigger an instant “tariff shock” crash as Bitcoin wildly misprices impact appeared first on CryptoSlate.