‘VanEck forecasts Bitcoin could attain 50% of gold’s market capitalization, estimating BTC at $644,000’

Bitcoin and gold have outperformed all other significant asset classes this year, illustrating how uncertainty in the U.S. macroeconomic landscape is influencing investor behavior.

Gold has surged by 48% year to date, achieving an unprecedented high near $4000. In contrast, Bitcoin has increased by over 30% this year, reaching a new peak above $126,000. This is notably the first occasion where both assets have concurrently occupied the top performance positions within a single calendar year.

Bitcoin and Gold Price Performance (Source: Charlie Bilello)

Both price increases are driven by similar underlying factors: a quest for safety as U.S. fiscal conditions worsen and rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will shift towards rate reductions.

As the federal government struggles with escalating debt and the potential for an extended shutdown, investors are increasingly directing liquidity into assets that can maintain purchasing power.

Ecoinometrics, a macro analysis platform, has also supported this perspective.

It highlighted that while Bitcoin leads in overall returns, gold continues to excel on a risk-adjusted basis.

Bitcoin and Gold Returns (Source: Ecoinometrics)

The firm indicated that this trend has persisted for the past two years, and this consistency suggests a lasting preference for hard assets as U.S. debt rises and fiscal dominance becomes the prevailing economic reality.

The firm further noted that investors who are betting on Bitcoin and gold are essentially hedging against what they perceive as a gradual decline in the value of fiat currency.

Bitcoin’s Long-Term Advantage Over Gold

While both assets are being recognized for their current market performance, there is a growing belief that BTC may soon surpass gold.

In a post on X (formerly Twitter) dated October 7, Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, stated that Bitcoin could achieve half of gold’s market capitalization following the next halving in April 2028. A halving event reduces Bitcoin’s issuance rate by 50%, which decreases supply and typically leads to price increases when demand remains stable.

Sigel pointed out that younger investors, especially in emerging markets, increasingly regard Bitcoin as a more effective store of value compared to the precious metal. He noted that gold’s value primarily derives from its function as a reserve of value rather than from industrial or jewelry demand.

Thus, if Bitcoin continues to gain that perception advantage, its market could see significant expansion. At gold’s current record price, Sigel estimated an equivalent valuation of $644,000 per BTC.

Importantly, several industry experts share his optimism.

Dave Weisberger, the founder of CoinRoutes, contended that Bitcoin’s “real bull market” has yet to commence when compared to gold.

Bitcoin Price in Gold (Source: Weisberger)

In light of this, he anticipates that Bitcoin will outperform gold in future cycles as it solidifies its status as the “preeminent hard money.”

Weisberger remarked:

“When the real Bitcoin bull market starts, you will know it from the expressions of disbelief that echo around this platform… Until then, Bitcoin WILL garner its share of increasing global liquidity, but the real fireworks are in the (unpredictable) future.”

Similarly, David Marcus, former president of PayPal, noted that if Bitcoin were valued like gold, its fair price would surpass $1.3 million per coin.

Their confidence is based on Bitcoin’s technological advantages over physical bullion.

Unlike gold, Bitcoin is digital, divisible, and can be transferred across borders without intermediaries. It also provides programmable utility, facilitating new financial applications that traditional commodities cannot replicate.

While the global economy continues to depend on fiat currencies for transactions, shifting geopolitical dynamics and increasing skepticism towards government-backed money could gradually bring Bitcoin closer to gold’s long-established role as a universal store of value.

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