Tuur Demeester forecasts a $500,000 target for Bitcoin, citing ‘mid-cycle strength’ and an upcoming institutional bull market.

A recent analysis by Bitcoin expert Tuur Demeester and Adamant Research suggests that the present market phase may represent a period of “quiet strength” for Bitcoin; a mid-cycle moment in what could evolve into one of the “most significant bull runs” in Bitcoin’s history.

Strategies for the Bitcoin surge

The document, titled ‘How to Position for the Bitcoin Boom’, spearheaded by Bitcoin economist and early backer Tuur Demeester, anticipates that there remains the possibility for a 4–10x increase in price from current levels, indicating targets exceeding $500,000 per BTC in the coming years:

“We believe this is the mid-cycle in what could become one of the most significant bull runs in bitcoin’s history. From its current range, we see a pathway toward a 4-10x value appreciation, which would suggest bitcoin price targets above $500,000.”

Multiple indicators bolster this perspective, as on-chain trends reveal strong conviction among seasoned holders. For instance, the report notes that larger investors (whales) are retaining their assets rather than selling. The HODLer Net Position Change indicates no signs of large-scale capitulation thus far in 2025, a behavior typically linked to market peaks.

“Whales have been transferring some coins over the past two years, particularly when bitcoin re-tested prior all-time highs during a tumultuous U.S. election. However, in 2025, HODLers have not moved over 100,000 coins in a single day, which historically has signaled selling activity during late-stage exuberance.”

Another metric, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), indicates that 50–70% of the Bitcoin supply is in unrealized profit. This aligns more with healthy, mid-cycle optimism rather than late-stage euphoria.

Low-probability potential challenges

The report discusses possible triggers for a market correction but perceives minimal risk of these factors disrupting the bull market. For instance, a significant hack could undermine confidence, yet historical instances have had little effect on BTC prices:

“We believe only in extreme scenarios could a hack genuinely halt or conclude the bitcoin bull market. When 120,000 bitcoin was stolen from Bitfinex in 2016, it had a negligible impact on the price.”

Additionally, distributions from Mt. Gox and bankruptcy coins have been swiftly absorbed by market demand, with a July 2025 liquidation of 80,000 BTC resulting in just a 4% price movement.

A substantial 10% of the Bitcoin supply is reportedly held by Coinbase, which could introduce a centralization risk. However, ETF issuers have started diversifying their custody strategies, and the likelihood of custody seizures remains low under the current U.S. administration, which is actively incorporating Bitcoin into its financial framework.

While a macroeconomic downturn could induce short-term volatility, the report anticipates Bitcoin will continue to outperform commodities and inflation in the long run.

Tuur Demeester emphasizes: Bitcoin over altcoins

The report marks a departure from its 2015 recommendation to maintain a small allocation in altcoins, now advocating for exclusive Bitcoin holdings and discouraging investment in “vastly inferior” projects that lack its network effect, security model, and monetary integrity.

The authors liken BTC’s function to the foundational layer of the internet, a singular, dominant protocol, and foresee that competitors like Ethereum, Ripple, and Cardano will diminish in significance over time.

Tuur Demeester highlights “long-term store of value” demand as the primary driver of Bitcoin’s current and future expansion. This is influenced by several factors, including ongoing inflation, fiscal deficits, bonds losing their long-standing safe-haven status, real estate’s waning attractiveness as a hedge, and capital shifting toward liquid, low-counterparty-risk assets.

Following El Salvador’s 2021 legal tender decision, U.S. adoption has accelerated under pro-Bitcoin policies from the Trump administration, including the establishment of a National Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, supportive legislation like the GENIUS Act, and the rapid adoption of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which currently hold approximately 1.4 million BTC.

Such assertive actions by the U.S. are prompting other countries to consider their own Bitcoin strategies. As the report notes:

“These strong endorsements are beginning to create a global ripple effect.”

Regarding how much Bitcoin investors should allocate to their portfolios, various factors should be taken into account, such as risk tolerance and conviction levels. The report suggests that a 5% allocation acts as insurance against systemic risks, while increasing that to 10% is viewed as a speculative hedge within a diversified portfolio. Holders with a 20–50% allocation indicate high conviction and an “early retirement” strategy.

For custody, the report advocates for collaborative multi-signature arrangements as the optimal balance between self-sovereignty and operational security, particularly for new adopters.

Mid-cycle, not the peak

Tuur Demeester and Adamant Research perceive Bitcoin’s current bull market as far from concluded, with institutional adoption, macroeconomic tailwinds, and strong holder conviction laying the groundwork for potentially historic gains.

This is “mid-cycle,” not the peak, and if Bitcoin fulfills its store-of-value promise, the next few years could redefine its role in the global financial landscape.

The post Bitcoin’s ‘mid-cycle strength’: Tuur Demeester predicts $500k target and historic institutional bull run appeared first on CryptoSlate.