Traders assess equal chances of Bitcoin finishing 2025 under $90k following $3B in ETF withdrawals.

The Bitcoin market is experiencing a notable shift, with traders actively positioning themselves for a year-end close below the $90,000 mark.

This follows a brief dip of the leading digital asset to a seven-month low of $89,970 on Nov. 18, before it rebounded to $91,526 at the time of reporting.

Consequently, the sentiment among crypto traders has markedly changed due to a combination of structural capital flight and tightening macroeconomic conditions.

Options desk pricing Bitcoin below $90,000

The clearest indication of this bearish outlook is found in options flows and prediction markets.

Crypto options platform Derive.xyz informed CryptoSlate that traders are currently estimating a 50% likelihood that Bitcoin will finish the year under $90,000. This aligns closely with crypto bettors on Polymarket, who estimate a 36% chance of the leading cryptocurrency ending the year below $80,000.

Indeed, this bearish positioning is evident in aggressive risk management, indicating that professional desks are now betting against the previously held bullish consensus.

Derive.xyz observed that Bitcoin’s Implied Volatility (IV), both short-term and long-term, has been increasing concurrently. For context, BTC‘s short-term IV has surged from 41% to 49% over two weeks, while long-term volatility (180-day) has similarly risen from 46% to 49%.

This suggests that traders do not perceive the current decline as a fleeting occurrence, but rather as the beginning of a more extended and deeper structural change in macro conditions and market sentiment.

Derive.xyz added:

“With ongoing concerns regarding the resilience of the US job market and the likelihood of a December rate cut dwindling to just above a coin-toss, there’s minimal macro support for traders to maintain a bullish stance as the year concludes.”

Further evidence of this pessimism is reflected in the widening of the 30-day put skew, which gauges the premium paid for downside protection (puts) compared to the premium for upside exposure (calls).

The skew has dropped from –2.9% to a notably defensive –5.3%, indicating that traders are not merely hedging but are incurring significant costs to safeguard against a substantial, sustained decline.

According to the firm, this marks the transition of the market into a new, more fearful volatility regime, where risk aversion prevails in positioning as the year draws to a close.

ETF outflows

This cautious options positioning has been directly triggered by the sharp reversal of flow within the Spot Bitcoin ETF sector.

Throughout much of 2025, these ETFs served as a crucial marginal buyer, acting as the primary stabilizing force by consistently absorbing supply. However, that role has now diminished.

The scale of the institutional withdrawal is remarkable, with Bitcoin ETFs reporting gross outflows of nearly $3 billion this month alone ($2.5 billion net), according to SoSoValue data. Notably, this is on track to be the second-largest month for outflows since these products were introduced in 2024.

Bitcoin ETF Monthly Flows (Source: SoSo Value)

The largest institutional vehicle, BlackRock’s IBIT, which is typically the market’s most robust structural buyer, has accounted for the majority of these withdrawals.

This ongoing selling eliminates the market’s most dependable absorption mechanism, leading to a critical outcome where structural demand diminishes, and liquidity significantly decreases.

In this liquidity-scarce environment, volatility increases, and what would normally be a minor dip can quickly escalate into a price decline.

Moreover, parallel actions across the ecosystem have intensified this lack of a consistent institutional buyer. Major BTC treasury firms have halted their historical accumulation patterns, and in some instances, have reduced their holdings.

Even MicroStrategy (Strategy), a corporate stronghold of bullishness, is exhibiting signs of strain. Their recent acquisition of 8,178 BTC was modest compared to previous purchases and was executed at a price roughly 10% above current levels.

As a result, 40% of their 649,870 BTC treasury is now at a loss, fundamentally undermining the perceived stability of the corporate treasury floor.

Strategy’s Bitcoin Holdings Percentage in Profit and Loss (Source: CryptoQuant)

Thus, while ETF outflows alone do not dictate price movements, their presence in a contracting liquidity environment amplifies every other negative signal.

Long-term holders selling

The current downturn is also being influenced by selling from an unexpected source: Long-Term Holders (LTHs).

These holders, historically the most resilient group, have collectively moved or sold over 800,000 BTC in the past 30 days. While LTH capitulation typically signifies late-stage drawdowns just before a bottom, the situation this time appears somewhat different.

Ki Young Ju of CryptoQuant has suggested that this movement is less about a complete collapse of confidence and more about internal rotation.

According to him, the older whales are strategically offloading their generational holdings to a new, structurally sound class of institutional buyers, such as sovereign funds, pensions, and multi-asset managers.

He noted that these new institutions generally exhibit much lower churn rates and significantly longer investment horizons.

Therefore, if accurate, this rotation could be interpreted as long-term bullish, effectively transferring supply from early adopters to stable, perpetual investors.

However, the short-term price impact of these offloadings remains negative.

On-chain metrics reveal this acute selling pressure, with Glassnode data indicating that Short-Term Holders (STHs) are realizing losses of approximately $427 million per day, a level not observed since the November 2022 capitulation.

Bitcoin Short Term Holders (Source: Glassnode)

Consequently, the supply of STH BTC held at a loss has surged to levels historically consistent with market bottoms.

However, analysts at Swissblock contended that panic-driven “capitulation selling” is currently absent, while adding that the existing setup clearly indicates an “open bottoming window.”

This suggests that the period of maximum uncertainty implies that while a floor may be forming, the market has yet to confirm it, and continued selling pressure could easily drive the price lower before stabilization occurs.

Macro headwinds tighten the noose.

Ultimately, the most critical factor influencing current behavior is the increasingly adverse global macro environment.

Bitcoin is behaving less like a unique asset and more like a high-beta reflection of global risk sentiment. When global liquidity contracts, high-risk assets inevitably suffer.

Expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut, which was a key bullish catalyst confidently priced in earlier this year, have essentially collapsed to even odds.

According to CME FedWatch data, traders now assign a 46.6% chance of a rate cut at the Dec. 10 FOMC meeting and a 53.4% probability that the Fed maintains current rates.

US Interest Rate Cut Probabilities (Source: CME FedWatch)

This renewed hawkish stance has directly resulted in tighter liquidity, heightening risk aversion as rising Treasury yields and fragile equity markets exert pressure on all asset classes. Crypto is caught directly in this current.

With liquidity contracting globally, traders are compelled to hedge risks aggressively as the year ends rather than pursue speculative upside opportunities.

This macro pressure reinforces the bearish signals observed in the options market. On-chain momentum indicators position Bitcoin firmly in the Pessimism ‘Correction’ zone around 0.72.

Bitcoin Composite Index. (Source: CryptoQuant)

If this metric continues to decline, technical models indicate a critical correction target of $87,500, a significant support level dating back to early 2025.

Thus, any price stabilization would necessitate a strong reversal in liquidity and sentiment, enabling the market to consolidate between $90,000 and $110,000.

Wintermute stated:

“Until BTC moves back toward the top of its range, market breadth is likely to remain narrow and narratives will continue to be short-lived.”

The post Traders put 50/50 odds on Bitcoin ending 2025 below $90k amid $3B ETF outflows appeared first on CryptoSlate.