This iconic $197M bear has traded long altcoins with significant leverage, yet funding rates indicate a risky trap.

There are traders known for their vocal presence, and those recognized due to their activities reflected in public data.

The wallet that crypto Twitter refers to as “BitcoinOG,” “1011short,” or similar variations belongs to the latter group.

In October, the narrative was straightforward and prominent. This wallet was associated with a significant BTC short on Hyperliquid, with Lookonchain providing ongoing updates as the position expanded, was modified, and ultimately closed.

One update indicated that the trader completely exited their BTC shorts, securing over $197 million across two wallets, while another hinted at a transfer of USDC to Binance immediately afterward. I won’t rehash every screenshot from that time; the key takeaway is that this trader earned the reputation of a “short legend” in the public’s perception.

Currently, the data suggests we’ve entered a new phase.

The beginning of the new narrative: 850 SOL long positions initiated in one hour

When you scrutinize perpetual activity for long enough, you begin to discern human actions from machine-generated behavior.

Hypurrscan data `0xb317…83ae` reveals 873 “Open Long” events on SOL USD, with 863 occurring on December 25.

More notably, 850 of those SOL longs on December 25 occurred within a single hour, from 15:00 to 15:59 UTC. This type of concentrated execution appears more algorithmic than human-driven.

Hyperliquid BitcoinOG trader dashboard (Source: HypurrScan)

The prices are also closely aligned. During that same hour, the median fill price hovers around $123.12, with the bulk of fills clustering between approximately $123.01 and $123.16. Although there are some outliers in the data, the central tendency indicates that the trade was centered around the low $123s.

Thus, a trader who had established a name through a dramatic short makes a return and purchases quietly, swiftly, and in a manner that implies they prioritize gaining exposure over showcasing their timing.

The wallet not only acquired SOL but financed an entire strategy

This December 25 SOL surge makes more sense when considering the funding.

USDC deposits into the address amount to approximately $430.0 million, while withdrawals total around $138.5 million, resulting in a net inflow of about $291.5 million over the specified timeframe. The deposits are uneven, as expected when a wallet prepares to manage a significant margin account. One day alone shows a $110 million deposit on December 11, with additional substantial deposit days around $70 million and $50 million in early December.

This is where the narrative shifts from a “SOL trade” to a broader portfolio strategy.

Notably, December 11 is also the day the wallet begins to leave what appears to be a structured plan.

Within the Hyperliquid data, there are nine blocks of 100 BTC each placed at around $91,600, totaling 1,000 BTC of orders, amounting to about $91.54 million notional. There is also a significant cluster of orders priced in the low $3,000s that correspond with ETH price levels, and the total notional across those orders reaches approximately $273.6 million, with substantial gross notional in both directions, likely reflecting order adjustments rather than a singular clean directional print.

Then there’s SOL again, represented in sizable limit blocks, featuring five 50,000 SOL orders placed around $135.50 to $139.00, along with two 30,000 SOL blocks around $123.89 to $124.00.

Even without speculating on what executed versus what was posted and retracted, it reveals the trader’s mindset. They were constructing the capacity to scale up across various assets, employing orders rather than relying on intuition.

They amassed a substantial long position across ETH, BTC, and SOL, with leverage in the low single digits at the account level and a considerable drawdown. The same screenshot indicates noteworthy funding costs on the long side, the type of figure you notice if you intend to maintain your position.

Many whales appear astute when the market moves favorably. The intriguing ones are those who can endure discomfort, retain their size, and still rest easy at night. This wallet exudes that essence, at least based on what we can observe.

The significance beyond merely observing whales

It’s tempting to frame this as a character study, where the short king transforms into the long guy, and that’s the end. However, it’s more nuanced than that.

The most insightful way to interpret this is as a signal regarding the type of market participants are willing to engage with at present.

Perpetual markets expand when traders feel secure about holding leverage. Conversely, they contract when traders become apprehensive about funding, volatility, and being forcibly exited. When a wallet like this injects hundreds of millions in USDC, places substantial ladders, and subsequently executes 850 SOL longs in an hour, it indicates that at least one serious player believes the upcoming weeks favor a risk-taking approach.

Additionally, there’s a cross-market context that supports this sentiment. Last week, Binance surpassed CME in bitcoin futures open interest. Whether you view this positively or negatively, it aligns with the overarching concept that leverage is shifting towards venues and products where expressing significant views is straightforward.

For this wallet, perpetuals are the primary focus.

The risks that determine the outcome: funding and correlation

Two factors could turn a large long portfolio into a challenge.

The first is funding. If longs incur costs and the market remains stagnant, time becomes a foe. You can monitor SOL funding regimes directly on CoinGlass, and it’s beneficial to keep that chart accessible while observing whether the wallet increases or reduces positions.

The second factor is correlation. A portfolio may seem diversified until the market reminds you that crypto can sometimes move as a unified asset, causing SOL to decline more sharply than the rest. In a correlated downturn, the portfolio gets impacted across multiple positions simultaneously, while funding fees could still be accruing.

This scenario compels decision-making.

Three distinct scenarios to consider moving forward

Here’s the spectrum of potential outcomes to analyze based on the current behavior of this wallet, all of which can be tested with the same on-chain and perpetual data we are already examining.

Scenario one, risk-on continuation.
BTC and ETH gradually rise, SOL outperforms, funding remains manageable, and the December 25 SOL surge appears like a strategic addition, with the wallet looking prescient rather than reckless.

Scenario two, chop and bleed.
Prices move sideways, funding remains favorable, the portfolio quietly deteriorates, the wallet either reduces exposure or begins hedging, and the public narrative shifts from brilliance to a test of patience.

Scenario three, risk-off shock.
A rapid correlated sell-off impacts the portfolio, volatility surges, the portfolio gets squeezed by both price and risk thresholds, and the wallet either defends with new collateral or quickly de-risks.

What I’ll be monitoring next

If you seek a straightforward “next chapter” indicator, keep an eye out for repetition.

If we witness another hour akin to December 25, with another dense cluster of SOL long openings around a single price level, it suggests this trader has a strategic playbook and is executing it with confidence.

If, on the other hand, we observe USDC flowing out, fewer openings, and more canceled ladders, it indicates this was a tactical maneuver and the wallet is safeguarding itself from potential carry costs.

Regardless, the reason this wallet remains captivating has nothing to do with the memes associated with it. It’s intriguing because it operates like a genuine trader, the type who establishes the account first, places the ladder, executes in a surge, and then manages the position.

If you have been tracking whale alerts like sports scores, this is the type of analysis that warrants a different perspective.

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