The upcoming Bitcoin all-time high has a distinct three-year timeframe, but a harsh $1.3 billion outflow alters the situation today.

The trajectory for Bitcoin to reach a new all-time high and explore subsequent price levels hinges on whether spot ETF flows regain consistency following a tumultuous start to 2026, which assessed the resilience of institutional demand in the post-ETF landscape.

CryptoSlate recorded net outflows totaling $1.29 billion from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs between December 15 and December 31, 2025. This period demonstrated that redemptions can accumulate even towards the end of the year.

The first complete trading week of January 2026 brought an additional risk-off sentiment. Spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a collective loss of $681 million.

Farside Investors’ daily flow table for that period indicates several significant negative sessions. Notable figures include -$486.1 million on January 7, -$398.8 million on January 8, and -$250.0 million on January 9.

Date (2026)	Spot BTC ETF net flow (USD mm)
Jan. 7	-486.1
Jan. 8	-398.8
Jan. 9	-250.0
Jan. 14	+840.6
Jan. 20	-479.7
Jan. 21	-708.7
Jan. 22	-32.2
Jan. 23	-103.5

The rapid shifts in flows highlight the volatility of the channel, demonstrating how swiftly it can reopen and how quickly it can close again when risk appetite diminishes.

The most significant single-day inflow of early 2026 occurred on January 14, with inflows reaching about $840 million, as Bitcoin traded above $97,000.

However, the trend shifted again towards the end of January: four sessions from January 20 to January 23 saw approximately $1.32 billion in net outflows, with a leading drop of -$708.7 million on January 21. This reversal serves as the latest test of whether creations can continue beyond reactive, price-driven days.

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Spot ETF era alters market dynamics

The 2024 approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs marked a crucial shift in market structure, making these flow figures significant and transforming how supply and demand manifest through a regulated medium. Prior to this, any ETF flows related to crypto were largely insignificant, as they were based on ‘paper Bitcoin’ through futures markets.

For traders attempting to predict the next all-time high, the paramount question is whether this alteration eliminates the halving cycle.

What is certain is that it modifies the rhythm and transparency of repositioning, as flows predominantly react to macro conditions rather than dictate them.

Historical data continues to provide the most recent benchmark for “price discovery.” Bitcoin achieved a peak of $126,100 in October 2025, a movement linked to gains in U.S. equities and ETF inflows coinciding with a decline in the U.S. dollar.

This October peak occurred within a timeframe where cycle highs have consistently followed previous halvings, as CryptoSlate predicted last year.

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The forward-looking inquiry is whether the next breach above the October 2025 threshold will occur sooner through a renewed, sustained ETF interest under stable policy expectations, outside of the conventional cycle timeline.

Alternatively, flows might remain tactical enough to postpone a new peak until the next cycle point. If following historical patterns, this would not happen until 2029, or late 2027 if the 2020 – 2024 cycle replicates, which saw another all-time high just before the halving.

For context on how the last breakout unfolded, refer to CryptoSlate’s explanation of why BTC achieved a new all-time high.

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Macro liquidity and rate expectations shape the landscape

The current macro environment offers a quantifiable backdrop. In the Federal Reserve’s weekly H.4.1 report for the week ending January 21, 2026, “Securities held outright” totaled approximately $6.285 trillion.

In the same report, “Reserve Bank credit” was recorded at $6.532 trillion. Some macro traders monitor this as a broader balance-sheet indicator and liquidity metric.

These figures do not directly correspond to Bitcoin’s price, but during the ETF era, they assist in describing the environment in which ETF creations may either continue or retract, particularly around policy meetings that can affect risk pricing.

Fed H.4.1 line item	Week ended	Value (USD mm)	Approx. (USD T)	Source
Securities held outright	Jan. 21, 2026	6,284,577	6.285	Federal Reserve (H.4.1)
Reserve Bank credit	Jan. 21, 2026	6,532,345	6.532	Federal Reserve (H.4.1)

The next volatility checkpoint is also scheduled. The upcoming FOMC meeting will commence on January 27, 2026, and conclude on January 28, with the statement expected at 2 p.m. ET.

As of the time of writing, the CME FedWatch tool indicates a 97% likelihood of no change. Practically, this establishes a short-term assessment of whether the inflow day in January marked the beginning of a longer streak of creations, or if the outflows in late January signify a return to tactical, mean-reverting strategies.

It could also turn out to be a one-day surge that unwinds rapidly if rate adjustments tighten financial conditions.

Three avenues to the next Bitcoin all-time high

Considering these factors, three timing scenarios arise that traders can monitor without viewing any single factor as determinative.

Path 1

In a “liquidity stabilizes and the ETF interest continues” scenario, the next all-time high could emerge in 2026 or 2027 if daily net flows transition from spikes to multi-week net creations. The market has already demonstrated its capacity to absorb around $840 million of net inflows within a single session.

However, the key factor is consistency: ongoing positive totals in ETF flows that do not swiftly revert to multi-day outflow streaks, coupled with a more stable rates trajectory around meetings such as the late-January FOMC.

For cross-asset validation, the BTC/Nasdaq ratio currently stands at 3.4, down from approximately 4.8 observed in October 2025, when Bitcoin reached its all-time high. The BTC/Nasdaq ratio (BTC price divided by the Nasdaq 100) serves as a relative-strength gauge for whether BTC is leading or lagging U.S. growth risk.

Thus, since the October peak, Bitcoin’s performance has weakened relative to the Nasdaq, indicating it is in a less favorable risk environment than it was at its peak.

Path 2

The second path maintains the cycle concept but is “re-parameterized” by traditional finance structures. From this perspective, the next all-time high may arrive later, potentially closer to the pre-2028 halving period.

The rationale for this slower trajectory is evident in the behavior of two-way flows. Significant outflows towards the end of 2025 and again in early January 2026 were succeeded by a notable positive day that reflects tactical re-entry based on price movements rather than long-term allocation, followed by another outflow streak in late January.

Within this framework, price discovery becomes a conditional event. It necessitates both a breach above the October 2025 highs and assurance that creations are no longer reverting in response to risk-off weeks, rather than relying on a single catalyst date linked to issuance.

Path 3

The third path views drawdowns as a persistent constraint even with ETFs. Historical market patterns include substantial declines from peak to trough that could reemerge if macroeconomic shocks prompt deleveraging across risk assets.

PortfoliosLab indicates a -76.67% maximum drawdown from November 2021 to November 2022. It also reveals previous cycles experiencing declines exceeding -80%, including -85.3%, -83.8%, and -93.07% in earlier periods.

In this scenario, institutional frameworks may influence the pace and liquidity of distribution.

However, the range of historical outcomes remains broad enough that “timing for the next ATH” becomes secondary to how significant a reset is priced before a new accumulation phase begins.

Sell-side predictions offer an additional reference range that can be monitored against these triggers without treating the target as a fixed point.

Standard Chartered anticipates Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by the end of 2026. The bank has reduced its forecast from a prior $300,000 target, establishing a clear benchmark that would necessitate the market reclaiming the October 2025 highs and maintaining above them.

Whether this scenario unfolds is now measurable daily through ETF flow consistency and weekly through Fed balance-sheet updates and rate-path forecasts, rather than solely relying on halving narratives.

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The immediate challenge for that framework arises at the same juncture the market is already monitoring. It is January 28 at 2 p.m. ET, when the Fed announces its policy statement.

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