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The United States is currently the sole market purchasing Bitcoin, as global investors capitalize on profits.
Bitcoin followed a familiar pattern following the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran: a rapid decline over the weekend, a recovery that began prior to the reopening of traditional markets, and a more orderly repricing during the weekdays once U.S.-related liquidity returned.
This operation marked a significant escalation, and cross-market positioning adhered to the expected response: rising energy prices, declining equity futures, and an increased appetite for “hard” hedges.
In the commodities sector, Brent crude surged into the low-$80s as traders factored in disruption risks, while U.S. equity futures fell as the narrative surrounding the conflict broadened.
In the context of rates and foreign exchange, investors favored gold and the dollar over long-duration bonds due to concerns about inflation and stagflation linked to persistent energy prices.
Throughout the weekend, Bitcoin acted as the “24/7 risk barometer” that cryptocurrency has assumed during previous geopolitically charged periods.
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The low point was approximately $63,254 on Saturday, followed by a rise above $67,000, before settling back into the mid-$65,000s by early Monday.
However, in contrast to previous instances, this response was notably resilient, with BTC being one of the few “risk-on” asset classes to rise at the U.S. market opening on Monday.
During shocks driven by conflict, Bitcoin has not consistently acted as a safe haven as anticipated. It remains active when other high-risk markets are closed, serving as a venue for traders to express fear, hedge, and then reverse their positions once the initial wave of adjustments subsides.
The dynamics behind this sequence have become increasingly U.S.-focused as spot ETFs and CME-linked basis trading shape how price discovery occurs during the workweek. Weekends can still produce the most pronounced price movements due to thinner liquidity and heightened urgency driven by news.
However, the trend for the week typically solidifies when U.S. cash and derivatives participants engage simultaneously.
Bitcoin performance per trading session. Blue = Asia, Orange = Europe, Green = US
Weekend shock, weekday repricing
A succinct way to characterize the period following the strikes is “weekend shock, weekday repricing.” The shock phase often manifests as an air pocket: traders respond to new reports when many desks are minimally staffed, and there is no U.S. spot ETF session to provide incremental demand.
The repricing phase then occurs when U.S. hours resume, and flows re-enter through the channels that have gained significance since the launch of ETFs.
This flow channel is evident in the daily net creations and redemptions reported by the primary U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs.
Flows transitioned from a notable outflow session to a series of inflows, followed by another strong inflow when the market reopened after the weekend.
| Date | US spot BTC ETF net flow (US$m) | Sign |
|---|---|---|
| Feb. 23 | -203.8 | Outflow |
| Feb. 24 | +257.7 | Inflow |
| Feb. 25 | +506.6 | Inflow |
| Feb. 26 | +254.4 | Inflow |
| Mar. 2 | +458.2 | Inflow |
Across these sessions, the net total amounts to approximately +$1.27 billion, which clarifies why weekday repricing can appear distinct from weekend activity, even when the underlying risk landscape remains unchanged.
In practice, a weekend decline can serve as the initial tradable release valve, while the Monday session becomes the moment when positioning manifests through ETF creations, macro hedges, and cash liquidity.
This does not imply that every Monday rally is “ETF-driven.” The Monday session offers multiple avenues to translate intent into size: spot ETF flows, CME positioning, and broader U.S. macro correlations. When these factors align, price tends to move more directly than during the thin-liquidity hours of the weekend.
US hours and the ETF-CME feedback loop
One reason U.S. hours can establish direction is that returns have started to concentrate there, even as Bitcoin trades continuously. Previous research by Kaiko indicated that U.S. session returns actually surpassed those of APAC and London during the January 2023–December 2025 timeframe.
For a market that previously relied heavily on offshore venues and Asia-driven liquidity, this represents a significant shift in where the “decision session” typically occurs.
Historically, Bitcoin’s “smart money” has tended to appear during Asia-Pacific hours rather than U.S. hours. Across various market periods, analyses that differentiate BTC returns by trading session have revealed a consistent pattern: APAC hours contribute a disproportionate share of the net gains or steady increases, while U.S. hours more frequently align with drawdowns or macro-style risk-off selling.
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The nuance is that “Asia” is not a monolithic entity. Research on market microstructure related to price discovery has traditionally highlighted stronger influences from venues such as Japan and offshore dollar markets, while retail-driven distortions (e.g., Korea’s premium episodes) do not necessarily translate into global price formation.
APAC has not always outperformed, but those Asian hours have consistently appeared as the accumulation window, with U.S. hours functioning more like the volatility/macro swing window, until the regime shifted.
Bitcoin trading session returns. Blue = Asia, Orange = Europe, Green = US
The session overlay on the chart illustrates a clear reversal of the typical ‘Asia bid’ narrative: the strongest buying momentum is now beginning in U.S. hours, while Asia hours have recently experienced heavier selling pressure.
The most significant impulsive upward movement on the chart occurs during a U.S. session (green), with a sharp rally into the ~70k area that takes place within the large green block on the right side of the chart.
The latest notable downward movement is concentrated in the Asia session (blue), marked by a decline from the high-68s/69k area down toward the current ~66.5k region, which largely unfolds during the final blue block on the far right.
Europe (orange) appears more as a transition/continuation zone here, often bridging whatever trend was established in the preceding session rather than reversing it cleanly.
Why is the US buying while Asia takes profit?
The workweek session integrates spot ETF flow with CME hedging and basis trading. When ETF demand drives spot prices higher, basis traders can react through futures; when macro risk impacts equities and rates, the same desks often express a view in bitcoin due to its nearly continuous trading and its proximity to the center of “risk-on/risk-off” behavior during shocks.
Recent data on derivatives positioning indicates that leverage is not as eager to pursue opportunities as it was at previous peaks. A CryptoQuant research note revealed that the CME basis has contracted, and CME bitcoin futures open interest has decreased by approximately 47% from its peak, reflecting a leverage reset.
A reset can reduce the likelihood of cascading liquidations, but it may also result in fewer marginal buyers available to support breakouts unless spot demand (including ETF demand) continues to materialize.
Microstructure may also alter the weekend wick pattern over the upcoming quarter. CME intends to introduce 24/7 trading for crypto derivatives starting in late May.
If CME approaches true continuous trading, one mechanical outcome could be a reduction in the “Sunday reopen” sensation and fewer thin-liquidity air pockets that amplify weekend news. This would not eliminate conflict-driven volatility but would change who can respond with size and when, which is crucial in determining whether a weekend movement becomes the week’s trend or fades by Tuesday.
Options pricing, key levels, and what the next month is pricing in
Options markets are currently reflecting a wider-than-usual range of potential outcomes. Deribit’s volatility index (DVOL) was around 53, and Deribit’s own statistics indicated that the implied volatility percentile was near 91.8, which is high compared to the past year’s distribution.
At approximately $66,500, a DVOL level near 53% annualized suggests a “normal” (one standard deviation) movement of about ±7.3% over one week and about ±15% over 30 days using the standard square-root-of-time approximation.
| Horizon | Implied move (≈1σ) | Dollar move (BTC ≈ $66,500) | Implied range |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | ±7.3% | ≈ ±$4,900 | ≈ $61,600 to $71,400 |
| 30 days | ±15% | ≈ ±$10,100 | ≈ $56,000 to $77,000 |
These ranges align with the technical framework traders have been utilizing since the weekend shock. The most defensible way to discuss levels is in terms of “acceptance” and “failed holds,” rather than certainty. Based on the marked zones on the chart:
| Zone | Area | How traders tend to frame it |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance | ~$69,000–$70,700 | Breakout/failed-breakout area; acceptance above can prompt spot chasing |
| Resistance | ~$71,500–$72,000 | Next supply zone if price maintains above ~$70,700 |
| Support | Mid-$65,000s | First shelf; losing it often converts rallies into retests |
| Support | ~$64,600 / ~$63,800 | Prior reaction area near the weekend shock low region |
| Downside markers | ~$61,700 and ~$61,100 | Structural levels that tend to carry more significance if macro stress continues |
The macro trigger that looms over this setup is energy. If the conflict narrative keeps oil prices elevated, markets are likely to discuss inflation and price pressures through equities and rates, which is the environment where bitcoin often behaves as risk-sensitive liquidity rather than as a safe haven.
Recent developments in energy channels and shipping risks have kept this possibility in focus.
Thus, the forward-looking assessment becomes conditional and observable. Traders can monitor:
- Whether U.S. spot ETF sessions continue to generate net inflows (or shift into a multi-day outflow streak)
- Whether DVOL decreases from elevated levels or remains near the top of its one-year distribution.
- Whether CME leverage rebuilds after the reported decline in open interest.
If these inputs lean supportive, steady inflows, reduced volatility, and stable basis, weekend dips are more likely to be purchased again during U.S. hours, and resistance zones near $69,000–$70,700 could become more than just overhead lines.
If these inputs lean negative, outflows, persistently high volatility, and weak risk markets may cause price action to behave similarly to the initial shock: sharp wicks first, followed by a slower decline once weekday liquidity assesses the move.
The next mechanical milestone is late May. If CME’s plan for 24/7 crypto derivatives trading proceeds, the weekend shock to weekday repricing pattern could soften at the margins. The market will still absorb new developments on Saturdays and Sundays.
The question remains whether the largest pools of U.S.-linked liquidity will continue to wait until Monday to determine how to express them.
The post The US is the only market buying Bitcoin right now while the international ‘smart money’ keeps taking profit appeared first on CryptoSlate.
