The Major Bitcoin Short: Individual Earns $200 Million by Accurately Timing Trump’s Tariff Announcement

Speculation regarding insider trading was prevalent on social media over the weekend as one wallet amassed significant wealth from a single transaction.

The price of Bitcoin experienced a swift decline following President Trump’s announcement on Friday about implementing 100% tariffs on all imports from China starting Nov. 1.

The market rebounded on Monday as crypto derivatives adjusted and spot demand stabilized, while social media circulated theories about a substantial Bitcoin short position that was established just prior to the announcement, allegedly linked to a member of the Trump family.

The tariff announcement impacted risk assets throughout the weekend, with Bitcoin testing the $105,000 level before recovering to approximately $115,000 by Monday morning in Europe.

Liquidations in the crypto market during the 24 hours surrounding the drop totaled around $19 billion, affecting over 1.6 million accounts.

The focus of the rumor centers on a significant Bitcoin short initiated before the tariff announcement, with some versions attributing the trade to Barron Trump. As of this writing, there is no public, verifiable evidence from exchanges or on-chain data linking any member of the Trump family to this position.

Information connecting Barron Trump to the cryptocurrency space primarily revolves around family wealth disclosures and profile articles, including financial reports, Forbes rankings, and previous meme-coin rumors, rather than documented derivatives trading.

The Big Bitcoin Short

Known elsewhere as Garret Jin, the trader gained attention on Friday by opening substantial short positions on Bitcoin just moments before President Trump publicly revealed the new 100% tariffs on China. The trader utilized the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid, placing short bets on Bitcoin and Ethereum with a notional value exceeding $700 million.

Within hours of the announcement and the subsequent price drop, the trader reportedly realized profits between $160 million and $200 million. Bitcoin fell from around $124,000 to as low as $105,000, while Ethereum also experienced a significant decline. On-chain analytics suggest that most positions were quickly closed to secure these considerable gains, with the trader briefly maintaining about $92 million worth of Bitcoin shorts after the crash.

The precise timing of these actions, executed just before President Trump’s announcement, fueled intense speculation within the crypto community regarding potential insider knowledge, although direct evidence supporting such claims has not emerged.

Nonetheless, the profit from this trade on Friday is estimated to be around $160 – $200 million, marking one of the largest and quickest gains in recent crypto trading history.

An X account claiming to be Jin posted on Oct. 13, denying any connection to the Trump family and characterizing the short as a macro/technical decision amid overvalued risk assets and escalating US-China tensions.

The account stated, “The fund isn’t mine — it’s my clients’. We run nodes and provide in-house insights for them.” He then responded to Binance Co-Founder Changpeng Zhao, stating,

“Thanks for sharing my personal and private information. To clarify, I have no connection with the Trump family or @DonaldJTrumpJr — this isn’t insider trading.”

Some users on X remain skeptical.

That gap matters for legal characterizations.

In the United States, insider trading revolves around trading based on material, nonpublic information that has been obtained or used in violation of a duty.

The misappropriation theory under Rule 10b-5 encompasses trading on confidential government information when a duty of trust or confidence is violated. The STOCK Act addresses the misuse of nonpublic information by federal officials and staff, accelerating trade disclosures for covered officials, although enforcement mechanisms vary by office and instrument type.

Bitcoin is classified as a commodity for regulatory purposes, thus the Commodity Futures Trading Commission would oversee Bitcoin derivatives. The Securities and Exchange Commission has pursued insider trading cases where the asset in question is classified as a security.

This combination means that any potential charges would depend on proving access to nonpublic policy timing, evidence that trading occurred based on that information, and documentation linking the positions to the individuals involved.

Tariff signaling, leverage rebuilding, and exchange-related liquidity are likely to continue influencing price movements and flows over the next two to six weeks.

A base case assumes the White House maintains the 100% tariff plan for Nov. 1 with occasional rhetorical shifts, while China’s policy response develops.

An escalation scenario anticipates clear retaliatory actions or additional U.S. trade measures, while a de-escalation scenario expects targeted exemptions or delay signals. Open interest and funding rates typically recover at a slower pace following significant liquidation events, which can lead to volatile ranges as market makers adjust inventories.

Historically, the days following record liquidation clusters often witness a second test of stress levels if equities decline and the dollar strengthens. Monitoring exchange stablecoin flows is also important, as net deposits can precede re-risking and increase USDT transfers to Binance during stabilization.

To contextualize the discussion within scenario ranges, the following table outlines plausible price corridors leading into early November, anchored to Monday’s European morning spot level.

Scenario	Key triggers and assumptions	Illustrative BTC corridor	Plausible drivers to watch
Escalation	Clear China retaliation or additional U.S. measures, S&P 500 down 5 to 8 percent from Monday, DXY up 1 to 2 points, VIX higher by 5 to 8 vols, open interest contracts another ~5 percent from post-shock levels	90,000 to 105,000	Equity gaps lower, negative funding, thin weekend books, second-leg liquidations
Base	Status quo jawboning, no new measures before Nov. 1, funding converges toward flat, open interest rebuilds gradually	110,000 to 125,000	Range trading, stablecoin net deposits to major venues, realized vol above recent averages
De-escalation	Exemptions or delay signals, equities stabilize, dollar softens, funding normalizes positively	125,000 to 135,000	OI expansion, spot-led bids, fewer forced sellers

The liquidation figures and the weekend activity diminish the necessity for a manipulative narrative to explain the movement.

The $19 billion liquidation figure is among the largest single-day occurrences reported in the crypto space, and Bitcoin’s share alone, combined with a downturn in related assets, aligns with a multi-venue, cross-position flush, with recovery into Monday.

If a single short position triggered the movement, it would still need to be reconciled with observed funding and order book behavior across various exchanges, the timing of the tariff announcement, and the actions of correlated risk assets.

The cross-market context is significant here, as tariff shocks influence supply chain expectations, rare-earth and technology inputs, and large-cap equity factor movements, and cryptocurrency has historically traded with high beta equity baskets on such occasions.

The legal frame is forward looking.

If investigators were to explore the rumor, the central questions would be whether any nonpublic information regarding the timing and content of the tariffs was accessed beforehand, whether a duty of confidentiality was violated, whether trading occurred based on that information, and whether records connect that trading to the named individuals.

In the absence of documentary proof, the rumor remains a narrative about alignment rather than evidence of conduct. Televised commentary earlier this year, as reported by PBS, assessed the likelihood of legal exposure from tariff announcements alone as low, while legislative interest in stricter trading regulations for officials progressed in the Senate.

For readers monitoring near-term market structure, a concise set of indicators can translate policy noise into positioning signals.

First, open interest across Bitcoin perpetuals relative to seven-day averages, along with funding rate direction, helps determine whether new leverage is pursuing rebounds or if the market is still de-risking. Live panels for these metrics are accessible on CoinGlass.

Second, exchange stablecoin balances and significant net deposits, particularly into Binance and CME basis movements, can precede periods when spot leads and derivatives catch up.

Third, equity futures and dollar indexes around tariff announcements can influence crypto ranges intraday.

The price trajectory leading into Nov. 1 will be determined by tariff guidance, equity and dollar conditions, and whether leverage rebuilds more quickly than spot flows justify.

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