The five indicators currently influencing Bitcoin and their impact on your investment portfolio.

From net flows to perpetual funding, the indicators that elucidate this bull cycle surpass the simplistic notion of “number go up.” Bitcoin (BTC) price fluctuations are now influenced by off-chain flows and leverage, rather than solely relying on traditional on-chain signals.

Since the launch of US spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, the factors that clarify why BTC surges or declines have subtly shifted. On-chain metrics now illustrate the tension in the market rather than indicating whether a trigger is being pulled.

The trigger is found in ETF flows, perpetual swap funding, stablecoin liquidity, and macroeconomic shocks that affect institutional portfolios.

Here are five indicators that genuinely influence BTC in the ETF era.

ETF net flows emerged as the main incremental driver

A collaborative market analysis by Gemini and Glassnode released in February 2025 estimated that spot ETFs had gathered over 515,000 BTC, approximately 2.4 times the quantity miners produced during the same timeframe.

Furthermore, research conducted by Mieszko Mazur and Efstathios Polyzos indicated that capital inflows into US spot ETFs are the most significant factor in forecasting Bitcoin’s valuation, proving to be more informative than conventional crypto metrics.

The first quarter of 2024 experienced around $12.1 billion in net inflows into the new US spot ETFs, coinciding with BTC surpassing its previous all-time high.

In November 2025, net redemptions reached approximately $3.7 billion, marking the largest monthly outflows since inception, as BTC fell from above $126,000 to the high-$80,000s.

Glassnode’s November reports characterize the softness in ETF flows as a primary reason BTC dipped below crucial cost-basis levels, with spot order flow being “exceptionally sensitive” to relatively minor incremental flows in a thin market.

A $500 million outflow day from IBIT is now as significant as any major on-chain whale transaction.

Perp funding and futures basis illustrate the leverage cycle

Derivatives data from prominent platforms such as BitMEX, Binance, and Bybit indicate that funding is clustering around a neutral range in this cycle, with significantly fewer extreme blow-off events compared to 2017 or 2021. However, spikes still correlate with local peaks and liquidations.

Funding rates between 8% and 12% annualized are currently in balance. Spikes exceeding this range typically precede local highs, while deeply negative funding signals cycle lows and forced unwinds.

A 2025 SSRN paper by Emre Inan revealed that BTC perpetual funding on Binance and Bybit demonstrates predictability in funding rates rather than price returns. Nonetheless, it aids in forecasting the next funding print, which provides data to analyze the next BTC movement.

As ETF flows turned slightly negative in November, Glassnode noted a decline in futures open interest, cycle-low funding, and a sharp repricing of downside options.

Price movements now appear to be a combined result of ETF flows and derivatives positioning. When ETF inflows rise but funding remains low, that indicates sustained demand.

Conversely, when funding spikes above 20% annualized while ETF flows stagnate, it signifies leverage pursuing momentum, which unwinds rapidly.

Stablecoin liquidity continues to serve as the native rails

Stablecoin supply and exchange balances still align closely with BTC price trends.

Increases in stablecoin supply and rising exchange balances have historically preceded or coincided with significant BTC rallies, while stagnant or declining stablecoin growth has often foreshadowed corrections.

CEX.IO’s January 2025 analysis indicates that stablecoin supply grew approximately 59% in 2024, reaching about 1% of the US dollar money supply, with transfer volume totaling $27.6 trillion that year.

Periods of robust ETF inflows combined with expanding stablecoin supply yield the strongest rallies. When both turn net negative, downward movements occur more swiftly and severely.

ETF flows act as the entry point for institutions, while stablecoins dictate the extent of marginal capital that crypto-native traders can contribute to a movement.

Holder regimes have evolved, not vanished

Glassnode and Avenir’s June 2025 report highlights that the proportion of BTC held by long-term holders reached unprecedented levels by early 2025, tightening the float. However, an increasing “Hot Capital Share” of short-term, price-sensitive supply to approximately 38% has rendered the market highly responsive to new flows.

Additionally, Glassnode’s November reports connect recent price movements to long-term holder (LTH) behavior: BTC falling below key realized-price levels coincided with LTHs beginning to distribute into ETF and CEX demand, diminishing support.

21Shares posits that prior to 2024, Bitcoin cycles could be narrated solely through on-chain cohort and cost-basis metrics. Post-ETFs, it is necessary to integrate these with ETF flows, derivatives, and macroeconomic factors.

Monitoring the distribution of supply, LTH versus STH, in-profit bands, and realized price offers insight into the market’s elasticity, which can then be paired with ETF and derivatives data to clarify why the same dollar of buying now impacts BTC differently than before.

Global liquidity and real yields transmit through ETFs

The ETF era has tightened Bitcoin’s connection to macro liquidity and real yields. Ainslie Wealth’s September 2025 analysis indicates that BTC historically reacts with a beta of 5x to 9x to fluctuations in a composite global liquidity index, compared to roughly 2x to 3x for gold and about 1x for equities.

A 2025 macro-finance paper concludes that Bitcoin has shown increasing sensitivity to interest-rate expectations and liquidity shocks, behaving more like a high-beta macro asset.

Deutsche Bank analysts assert that the current drawdown is more challenging to recover from because BTC is now deeply integrated into institutional portfolios via ETFs, and those portfolios are being de-risked amid macroeconomic challenges and rising real yields.

21Shares links the autumn sell-off to tightening liquidity and diminishing hopes for rate cuts, framing ETF flows as the conduit between macroeconomic factors and BTC.

Odds of rate cuts, dollar liquidity indices, and movements in US real yields are now reflected almost immediately in ETF flows, which subsequently influence spot and derivatives markets.

The joint system determines direction

The five indicators function as components of the same mechanism.

ETF flows establish the foundational institutional demand. Perp funding indicates whether that demand is being amplified or countered by leverage. Stablecoin liquidity determines the capacity of crypto-native traders to absorb or anticipate institutional flows. Holder regimes influence the market’s elasticity. Macro liquidity regulates the availability and cost of capital, impacting all four.

When all five align, BTC surges. When they diverge, BTC declines.

The ETF era has made Bitcoin resemble a traditional risk asset with crypto-specific infrastructure. If Bitcoin achieves a market cap of $3 trillion, it will be due to all five indicators moving in the same direction.

The post The 5 signals that really move Bitcoin now—and how they hit your portfolio appeared first on CryptoSlate.