The evaluation framework for an XRP investment strategy distinguishing Ripple’s licensing from the utility of XRPL signals.

Ripple begins 2026 with new permissions in the UK and EU.

In January, Ripple announced that it had obtained permissions from the UK Financial Conduct Authority for an Electronic Money Institution (EMI) license and cryptoasset registration.

On February 2, it confirmed the receipt of full EMI approval in Luxembourg.

What implications does this hold for XRP investors?

Ripple’s standardized XRPL “snapshot” tables effectively conclude at Q1 2025 (when it indicated it would retire the XRP Markets Report in its current format), so narratives regarding 2026 “utility” should be evaluated against more recent third-party research and live XRPL dashboards, including benchmarks like Messari’s Q3 2025 network review, rather than outdated quarter-over-quarter comparisons.

Key takeaways

• Ripple’s progress in licensing serves as an enabler for company-level distribution, yet it still requires observable conversion into XRPL activity before “utility” can be claimed as a demand driver for XRP.
• With Ripple planning to discontinue its quarterly XRP Markets Report tables after Q1 2025, a more current XRPL checkpoint is derived from third-party research like Messari’s Q3 2025 snapshot, which reported an 8.9% increase in average daily transactions (from 1.6M to 1.8M) and a 46.3% rise in total new addresses to 447,200.
• Modernization of cross-border payments is progressing slowly at the system level, with the BIS indicating that end-2027 targets are not on track and the FSB noting that global outcomes have yet to manifest into substantial improvements.
• XRP’s performance in 2026 may remain sensitive to liquidity conditions, following the Fed’s decision to keep its key rate steady at approximately 3.6% in January.

Who this information is intended for

• Long-term holders seeking a checklist that differentiates Ripple distribution from XRPL usage.
• Swing traders who react to legal and licensing news but require on-chain confirmation for their decisions.
• Institutional and treasury professionals monitoring payment infrastructures, licensing, and settlement processes.

What to monitor this quarter

• Trends in XRPL activity compared to the last disclosed benchmark (transactions, new wallets, fees burned, DEX volume).
• Signals of operational readiness, including whether validators and operators are up-to-date on essential core node releases like rippled 3.0.0.
• Evidence of regulatory-to-usage conversion, tracking the flow from licensing to onboarding to routing decisions to XRPL settlement.
• Macro payments context regarding costs, speed, and access objectives, referencing the language from the BIS and FSB.

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Understanding XRPL (and the realistic implications of “utility”)

XRPL functions as a public ledger with its own node software lifecycle. The maintenance of the network is essential for both uptime and the credibility of any “enterprise-grade” claims. According to XRPL.org, version 3.0.0 of rippled was launched on December 9, 2025.

The site urged server operators to upgrade “as soon as possible.” In an investor thesis, “utility” requires a definition that withstands changes in headlines.

Ripple’s market reports offer a monitoring framework by categorizing four areas that can be tracked collectively: transactions, new wallets, XRP burned in fees, and DEX volume.

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Ripple vs XRPL (roles defined), why licenses do not equate to token demand

Ripple’s 2026 regulatory updates pertain to the company level.

Ripple announced on January 9, 2026, that it had secured FCA permissions in the UK related to an EMI license and cryptoasset registration.

Additionally, Ripple communicated that it obtained preliminary EMI approval in Luxembourg on January 14, 2026.

Later, it confirmed full EMI approval in Luxembourg on February 2, 2026.

A forward-looking framework views these permissions as the initial phase in a conversion funnel that can be audited over time.

Licensing → institutional onboarding → routing and settlement choices → XRPL activity → potential XRP demand

The funnel could break at the routing stage, as a payments business may direct value in ways that do not necessitate XRP for on-ledger settlement.

The investable question for 2026 revolves around whether licensing-driven distribution enhances XRPL usage in the specific on-chain categories that can be monitored.

Related Reading

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Demand factors in 2026: payment realities, liquidity dynamics, and headline fluctuations

On the macro payments front, the baseline continues to reflect slow reform rather than rapid transformation.

The Financial Stability Board’s consolidated progress report for 2025 stated that endeavors have not resulted in “tangible improvements” globally, with costs remaining “sticky.”

The Bank for International Settlements noted in a December 2025 bulletin that end-2027 cross-border payment goals are falling behind schedule.

It also commented that improvements have been “modest.”

Stablecoins pose a competing narrative for settlement, accompanied by their own limitations.

The IMF has suggested that stablecoins could enhance payments and global finance, while cautioning about risks such as currency substitution and diminished control over capital flows.

In the market, liquidity conditions may still dominate the medium-term performance of higher-beta assets. The Fed maintained its key rate at around 3.6% in a decision made in January.

For XRP, the viewpoint for 2026 is mechanical.

If rates and volatility conditions tighten, rallies driven by headlines may face challenges to sustain themselves without on-chain verification.

Headlines regarding XRPL’s institutional roadmap can influence the flow of narratives.

However, they still require confirmation at the ledger level to substantiate the claim that “utility drives price,” which includes Ripple’s institutional-focused roadmap for XRPL and proposed upgrades for institutional DeFi.

What to monitor in 2026: XRPL metrics dashboard and narrative-to-metric evaluations

Ripple’s last disclosed quarter-over-quarter analysis serves as a benchmark for understanding what “cooling” looked like following a spike.

In Messari’s State of XRP Ledger Q3 2025 report, the firm indicated that numerous key network metrics experienced quarter-over-quarter increases, including average daily transactions rising from 1.6 million to 1.8 million.

It also noted quarter-over-quarter declines in transaction-fee burn (in XRP) and DEX activity, thus providing a more recent “cooling versus re-acceleration” perspective for monitoring in 2026.

Metrics dashboard

Metric	Q2 2025	Q3 2025	QoQ change	How to utilize it in 2026 tracking
Average daily transactions	1.6M	1.8M	+8.9%	Look for sustained throughput increases across several quarters, rather than isolated bursts linked to hype cycles.
Average daily active sender addresses	21,900	25,300	+15.4%	Utilize as a proxy for participation, while considering that destination-tag aggregation can compress “address” counts for exchanges/custodians.
New addresses (quarter total)	—	447,200	+46.3%	Monitor whether licensing/onboarding narratives align with net-new account growth, rather than merely recycled activity.
XRP burned in transaction fees (quarter total, XRP)	308,700	174,200	-43.6%	Use as an indicator of activity costs (and a proxy for “demand for blockspace”), but interpret alongside changes in fee/price regimes.
DEX volume (avg daily, CLOB issued-currency volume, USD)	$8.2M	$7.9M	-4%	Observe whether liquidity increases alongside throughput (a healthier pattern than isolated volume spikes).
DEX volume (avg daily, AMM volume, USD)	$2.1M	$1.7M	-17%	Track AMM participation separately from the CLOB, as each may behave differently based on market structure and incentives.

Messari reported total new addresses increasing by 46.3% QoQ to 447,200 in Q3 2025, alongside average daily transactions rising from 1.6 million to 1.8 million.

This change provides a more up-to-date reference point for onboarding and throughput discussions regarding “utility” as we approach 2026 compared to older quarter comparisons.

Ripple also stated it would terminate the XRP Markets Report “in its current form” starting Q2 2025, indicating that its prior on-chain tables should be viewed as a closed historical series rather than an ongoing quarterly benchmark.

This shift emphasizes that methodological consistency is a primary concern: do not combine Ripple’s legacy tables with third-party series without explicitly normalizing definitions and data sources.

Details regarding this are found in Ripple’s Q1 2025 XRP Markets Report and Messari’s Q3 2025 XRPL report.

Narrative-to-metric mapping (audit trail)

• “Licensing unlocks usage” should manifest as a multi-metric trend, encompassing transactions and fees burned, along with new wallets if onboarding increases participation.
• “XRPL DeFi liquidity is improving” should be reflected in DEX volume in conjunction with activity metrics, considering the same reporting-methodology caveats.

Bull, base, and bear scenarios

Bull indicators: licensing advantages align with ongoing, multi-quarter re-acceleration in transactions, new wallets, fees burned, and DEX volume.

The licensing aspect is observable through Ripple’s updates in the UK and Luxembourg, while the on-chain aspect is measurable through the metrics framework in its market reports.

Base indicators: Ripple broadens regulated distribution, while XRPL activity stabilizes within a post-spike range.

XRP trades as an asset sensitive to liquidity and headlines within the context of the Fed’s pause-rate environment.

Bear indicators: the modernization of cross-border payments remains slow according to BIS and FSB progress reports.

Stablecoins attract payment focus within the IMF’s risk framework, and XRPL activity fails to re-accelerate amid tighter risk appetites.

Red flags and invalidation (conditions that undermine the thesis)

• Methodology discontinuity: Ripple’s note regarding updates to on-chain data sources, which “may result in slight discrepancies,” can invalidate simplistic quarter-to-quarter comparisons.
• Narrative-driven rallies: licensing or legal headlines that do not correspond with multi-metric XRPL follow-through in transactions, wallets, fees burned, and DEX volume.
• Macro dissonance: claims of payments adoption that overlook BIS and FSB progress language risk exaggerating near-term conversion from infrastructure plans to global cost and speed outcomes.

Common misconceptions and a monitoring checklist for 2026

Misconception: “Ripple licensing equates to XRP demand.”

Ripple’s permissions define what the company can do in regulated markets, while the token-demand assertion necessitates a secondary step that is observable on XRPL through activity metrics.

Misconception: “Ripple is synonymous with XRPL.”

XRPL has its own operational rhythm, and the upgrade guidance for rippled 3.0.0 from XRPL.org serves as a reminder that network reliability is a distinct focus.

Action checklist and routine

• Weekly: monitor risk appetite inputs related to the Fed rate environment, noting that the AP reported the policy rate remained unchanged at approximately 3.6% as of late January.
• Monthly: refresh an XRPL dashboard utilizing Ripple’s four categories as a consistent framework, and highlight any methodological notes prior to comparing trends.
• Quarterly: reassess the licensing-to-ledger funnel, connecting Ripple’s jurisdictional permissions to observable routing and activity results, keeping conclusions provisional until confirmed by on-chain data.

For 2026, narratives surrounding XRP boil down to whether regulated distribution translates into consistent XRPL usage.

This assessment takes place within a payments system that global organizations continue to describe as slow to evolve.

The post The scorecard for an XRP investment thesis that separates Ripple licensing from XRPL utility signals appeared first on CryptoSlate.