The dollar remains dominant until 2046, thwarting Bitcoin aspirations with $13 trillion in IMF data.

The initial viable trajectory for Bitcoin to achieve the status of the world’s global reserve currency (here defined as reserve-currency supremacy rather than merely limited reserve-asset adoption) is projected to occur around the mid-2040s, according to a scenario model that considers official mandates, collateral applications, and invoicing norms as crucial constraints.

This timeline is based on a reserve system where total global foreign-exchange reserves were estimated at $12.94 trillion in the second quarter of 2025, with the U.S. dollar still representing 56.32% of allocated reserves.

The same IMF data illustrates why a rapid decade-scale transition is challenging to predict with high certainty, even with swift private adoption. The overall volume is substantial and shifts gradually.

In the first quarter of 2025, the IMF reported the U.S. dollar at 57.74% of allocated reserves, the euro at 20.06%, and the renminbi at 2.12%. These statistics set the context for the allocation of “safe” reserve balance sheets that central banks currently manage.

The status of a reserve currency is closely linked to the funding and hedging framework underlying reserve portfolios. In April 2022, the dollar was involved in 88% of global foreign-exchange transactions.

The core collateral within this network continues to be U.S. Treasurys.

There was approximately $30.3 trillion outstanding, along with an average daily trading volume of about $1,047.1 billion, as reported by SIFMA in its January 2026 update on U.S. Treasury securities.

Two phases: Reserve asset adoption vs. reserve-currency supremacy

Thus, Bitcoin’s case for becoming a reserve currency comprises two distinct phases that markets frequently conflate into a single narrative. The initial phase represents a “reserve asset breakthrough,” wherein official entities and regulated intermediaries recognize BTC as a long-term reserve diversifier in limited quantities.

The subsequent phase is “reserve-currency supremacy,” where BTC becomes a standard unit for invoicing, settlement, collateral, and liquidity provision across international borders.

The IMF’s dominant-currency framework elucidates why invoicing and contracting norms can persist even when trade shares fluctuate, as pricing and financing practices can become self-perpetuating during both stress and normal conditions.

This persistence is detailed in the IMF staff discussion note, “Dominant Currencies and External Adjustment.”

Current policy and market infrastructure developments may also elevate the standards for achieving that second phase. It may broaden dollar usage into new frameworks rather than replacing it.

The BIS indicated that Project Agorá is examining the tokenization of wholesale central bank money and commercial bank deposits on programmable platforms for cross-border payments. This aligns with a future where major currency settlements and bank balance sheets remain the primary “money object,” even if the interface evolves.

Citi, in its 2025 stablecoin outlook, updated its 2030 issuance forecasts to $1.9 trillion in a base case and $4.0 trillion in a bullish scenario.

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McKinsey has also projected the tokenization of real-world assets, excluding cryptocurrencies and stablecoins, to reach approximately $2 trillion by 2030. It estimates a range of about $1 trillion–$4 trillion, underscoring the magnitude of balance-sheet migration that could happen without altering the unit of account for reserves.

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Access is expanding, but official limitations persist

Regulated access to Bitcoin has broadened. This alleviates one obstacle to wider reserve-asset ownership while maintaining the reserve-currency challenge.

The SEC approved 11 spot Bitcoin ETP Rule 19b-4 applications on January 10, 2024. This created a standardized framework for U.S. investors and some institutions that cannot directly hold BTC.

Secondary market metrics indicate rapid growth in those frameworks. Cumulative U.S. spot crypto ETF trading volume has surpassed $2 trillion, with spot Bitcoin ETF assets around $117 billion as of January 2, 2026.

This statistic is more significant as an adoption channel than as a direct indicator of sovereign reserve intentions. For additional insights on AUM and market positioning, see spot Bitcoin ETFs celebrating their first anniversary, with four ranking among the top 20 in AUM.

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Central bank actions in the short term also suggest an alternative diversification avenue that already aligns with reserve-manager constraints. The World Gold Council reported that central banks purchased approximately 1,045 metric tons of gold in 2024, marking the third consecutive year above 1,000 tons.

Its 2025 survey indicated that 95% of respondents anticipate a rise in global gold reserves, with a record 43% expecting their own gold holdings to increase over the next year. These findings were published in the WGC’s 2024 gold demand (central banks section) and the WGC central bank survey 2025.

This observable trend limits any model presuming that near-term official diversification will default to BTC. Instead, it competes with a reserve asset that has already established accounting and liquidity practices.

A constrained model suggests an earliest window around 2046

A forward-looking estimate for Bitcoin as the world’s “global reserve currency” is therefore contingent on gates that must be cleared in sequence.

These include volatility reduction suitable for reserve portfolios, legal and regulatory harmonization for custody and settlement finality, and more robust collateral and funding markets capable of functioning under stress.

Additionally, they entail official-sector mandates that go beyond symbolic allocations. Finally, a transformation in invoicing, settlement, or collateral practices away from the dollar’s current foundation is required.

The barriers these gates must overcome are evident in macro data, including the dollar’s share of reserves, its standing in FX markets, and the magnitude of Treasury collateral. These constraints are grounded in COFER, the BIS FX survey, and SIFMA’s Treasury market statistics.

Utilizing those constraints, our scenario model assigns an “earliest plausible window” for reserve-currency supremacy around 2046.

This is differentiated from the earlier possibility of BTC being a minor reserve asset in certain portfolios.

The probability table below considers reserve-currency supremacy as the target outcome. It explicitly presents the figures as editorial modeling rather than sourced forecasts.

Horizon	Probability BTC becomes global reserve currency (supremacy) by then (editorial model)	Model anchors tied to observable constraints
5 years (2031)	1%	ETP access exists, but reserve-manager requirements and official mandates rarely shift within a single cycle, while USD reserve share and FX dominance remain high (CRS; IMF COFER 2025Q2; BIS FX survey).
10 years (2036)	4%	Tokenized deposits and USD-denominated stablecoins can scale on programmable rails, reinforcing incumbent currency usage even as settlement technology evolves (BIS Project Agorá; Citi stablecoin framework).
20 years (2046)	15%	Multi-cycle regulatory alignment and financing-market maturation could compound, although the Treasury collateral base and FX network effects remain significant (SIFMA Treasury statistics; BIS FX survey).
50 years (2076)	35%	Extended timelines allow for institutional restructuring, while the persistence of dominant currencies in invoicing and contracting presents a structural challenge (IMF dominant-currency framework).
Never	45%	Structural obstacles include the lack of an issuer backstop for stress operations and the potential for tokenized USD systems to absorb most digital money demand (BIS Project Agorá; Citi stablecoin framework).

The use of the dollar in cross-border payments and trade finance also remains a pertinent constraint in models of currency supremacy, though definitions are significant. The Wall Street Journal referenced SWIFT data estimating the dollar at about 47% of payments and approximately 80% of trade finance.

These figures are directional without the underlying SWIFT release available.

What emerges from the aggregated data is a divide between rapidly evolving channels that can enhance Bitcoin exposure and slowly evolving channels that establish reserve currency status.

Tokenized bank money and stablecoins might achieve a trillion-dollar scale within the next decade while keeping dollars and bank deposits at the forefront of settlement, according to the BIS and Citi’s perspectives.

Central banks may continue to accumulate gold as a balance-sheet hedge while maintaining the dollar at the core of FX reserves, as per the World Gold Council and COFER. These constraints render 2046 an “earliest window” for supremacy in this model rather than a median outcome.

They also keep the near-term narrative focused on whether Bitcoin can evolve into collateral and liquidity infrastructure that reserve managers can utilize during times of stress.

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