Ten-Year Bitcoin Holdings Increase at a Rate Exceeding Daily Production, Indicating Scarcity Following 2024 Halving

On-chain analytics indicate that Bitcoin’s (BTC) “ancient supply” is expanding at a rate that outpaces the daily issuance of new BTC, as reported in a June 18 study by Fidelity Digital Assets.

The report defines ancient supply as Bitcoins that have remained untouched for a minimum of ten years, noting an average of 566 BTC being added to the 10-year-plus category each day since April 2024, exceeding the 450 BTC that miners currently contribute to circulation daily.

This development occurred less than a year following the 2024 block-reward halving, which halved the issuance rate and altered the supply dynamics of the network.

Ancient supply constitutes over 17% of all mined Bitcoin, totaling approximately 3.4 million BTC valued at around $360 billion at a price of $107,000 per coin, a significant increase from nearly zero when this metric was first established at the beginning of 2019.

Satoshi Nakamoto possesses 33% of this reserve, while an unknown quantity may be permanently lost. Nevertheless, analysts emphasize that any coin can potentially be reactivated for use.

Conviction and volatility

Daily reductions in the 10-year category occur in less than 3% of instances, but this percentage rises to 13% when considering holders with a five-year tenure.

The report noted that the period following the 2024 US elections saw increased activity among even the most committed wallets. Since November, the ancient supply has diminished on 10% of trading days, which is four times its historical average.

Movement from five- to ten-year holders appears to be more reactive. Coins that have been held for at least five years exited their category on 39% of days during the same timeframe, three times the usual rate.

The report attributed this increase to stable prices in the first quarter, suggesting that greater distribution from older cohorts can dampen short-term price increases even as net scarcity grows.

HODL rate turns positive

Fidelity also evaluated the “HODL rate,” which is defined as the inflow of ancient supply minus new issuance.

This metric turned positive in April 2024, averaging a positive 116 Bitcoin per day, reinforcing the notion that a solid core of holders is absorbing circulation more rapidly than miners can replenish it.

Given that Bitcoin’s issuance schedule is designed to decrease with halvings, the firm anticipates that the circulating supply will reach 20% of all Bitcoin by that year and 25% by 2034, based on current trends.

Public companies may further accelerate this trend. Currently, 27 publicly traded firms collectively hold over 800,000 BTC.

Fidelity’s model forecasts that the ancient supply will surpass 30% of the float by 2035 if companies holding 1,000 BTC or more continue to retain coins on their balance sheets.

Despite the implied scarcity, this does not ensure higher prices without sufficient demand to absorb it.

However, a sustained increase in long-term held coins reduces the float available to traders and increasingly links price discovery to marginal flows.

Fidelity concluded that Bitcoin now differentiates itself from commodities with flexible supply.

The growth of post-10-year Bitcoin holdings outpacing daily issuance signals scarcity following the 2024 halving, as first reported by CryptoSlate.