StanChart maintains $200k year-end forecast for Bitcoin amid US government shutdown developments.

Geoffrey Kendrick, the head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, reiterated his Bitcoin (BTC) price target of $200,000 by the end of the year on October 2.

Kendrick suggested that new ETF inflows and the U.S. government shutdown could propel the cryptocurrency to new heights in the upcoming weeks.

In a communication to clients, Kendrick indicated that Bitcoin is on the verge of surpassing its all-time high within days and may reach $135,000 in the near future, slightly later than his earlier prediction.

Kendrick pointed out that net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have approached nearly $50 billion, with three months remaining in the year.

Shutdown as a catalyst

Kendrick contended that the current shutdown is more significant than the 2018–2019 situation, during which Bitcoin exhibited minimal response.

He observed that this year, the asset has closely tracked “U.S. government risks,” as seen in Treasury term premiums, positioning it to gain as political stalemate intensifies.

The prediction market Polymarket shows a 60% likelihood that the shutdown will persist for 10 to 29 days, a timeframe Kendrick believes would likely support Bitcoin prices throughout.

ETF inflows and market dynamics

Although gold ETFs have recently surpassed Bitcoin ETF inflows, Kendrick anticipated that this trend will soon shift in favor of the digital asset. Inflows have been increasing over the past week and are projected to persist.

Kendrick stated that the demand for Bitcoin ETFs, along with the cryptocurrency’s growing correlation with macroeconomic risk factors, reinforces its status as an evolving financial asset.

He noted:

“I would expect at least another $20 billion by year-end, a number which would make my $200,000 year-end forecast possible.”

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