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Bitcoin climbed above $113,000 on Friday following a U.S. payrolls report showing an increase of 22,000 jobs and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3 percent. These figures have led traders to price in a near-certain Federal Reserve rate cut in September.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics release, private employers added 38,000 jobs, while government payrolls declined by 16,000 and the manufacturing sector lost 12,000 jobs.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.3 percent month-over-month and 3.7 percent year-over-year. The labor force participation rate edged up to 62.3 percent, and average weekly hours remained steady at 34.2. The U-6 underemployment rate stood at 8.1 percent.
Bitcoin traded above the $113,000 level during the session, hovering just below that mark on real-time charts.
The modest headline gain followed a week of incremental softening across higher-frequency indicators. Initial jobless claims rose by 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 237,000, while private-sector payroll growth in the ADP series cooled, reinforcing evidence of slower hiring, according to Trading Economics data.
Separately, the services sector improved but showed persistent price pressure: the ISM Services PMI firmed in August, new orders advanced, and the prices-paid index eased only slightly to a still-elevated 69.2.
On the cost side, the Labor Department revised second-quarter nonfarm productivity up to a 3.3 percent annualized pace and unit labor costs down to 1.0 percent. This combination supports disinflation at the margin.
Trade flows added another dimension to the macro picture. The U.S. goods and services deficit widened to $78.3 billion in July as imports rebounded, marking the largest gap since early spring, per the latest joint release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau. This pattern points to resilient domestic demand and front-loading related to tariff policy, even as hiring momentum slows.
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Rate expectations adjusted quickly after the August payrolls figures. Futures implied probabilities tracked by the CME FedWatch Tool showed markets treating a September reduction as the base case, with some chance of a larger move discussed in rates commentary during the trading day.
The probability of a 50-basis-point cut rose from 0 percent yesterday to 12 percent, while the 3.6 percent chance of no cut has evaporated to 0 percent.
The setup is straightforward for crypto: a softer labor market and contained wage growth raise the probability of easier monetary policy, which has historically supported liquidity conditions that can lift risk assets, including Bitcoin.
The mix of slower hiring, firm services demand, and improving productivity leaves the policy debate finely balanced heading into the September 16–17 meeting.
If service inflation pressure, captured in ISM prices, moderates alongside cooling labor conditions and lower unit labor costs, the Fed has room to begin a measured easing cycle, a backdrop that crypto markets have already started to discount.
The committee’s decision will finalize the near-term path for dollar liquidity and duration, and by extension, the tone for digital asset trading into quarter-end.
The Fed meets September 16–17.
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