Remove the violent weekends, and Bitcoin’s upward trend persists as the dollar keeps declining.

Bitcoin’s 2026 dilemma is the weekend

I find myself returning to this statement because it resonates with a harsh reality that only markets can deliver.

The only scenario worse than investing in Bitcoin this year was opting not to invest in it. If you held onto dollars, you were subtly taxed.

The dollar has been declining, and the sentiment surrounding “anti-dollar” assets has been amplifying with each passing day.

If you owned tangible assets, you were rewarded prominently, receiving texts with chart screenshots at 2 a.m.

Gold has traded for over $5,000 an ounce, silver has surged into triple-digit territory, and even the S&P 500 has seen gains this year.

Then, you turn to Bitcoin, the asset that has crafted its identity around being the escape route from fiat currency.

The scoreboard indicates it has essentially remained stagnant. That’s where individuals typically pause, shrug, and move on to their next trade.

That is a misjudgment.

The true narrative in this data is more peculiar, and it’s nestled within the clock.

Bitcoin's 2026 performance (Source: TradingView)

The scoreboard that captures everyone’s attention

Here’s how 2026 has unfolded thus far in straightforward percentage terms, measured from the first available print after Jan. 1 to Jan. 27 at 15:00 UTC.

Asset	Return (Jan. 1–Jan. 27, 15:00 UTC)
Silver	+46.22%
Gold	+16.59%
Oil	+6.35%
S&P futures	+1.49%
Bitcoin	-0.07%
DXY	-1.94%

If you’re consuming this information like an average person, the conclusion is clear.

Metals triumphed, oil performed adequately, equities were stable, the dollar depreciated, and Bitcoin remained flat.

The issue is that “remaining flat” is an illusion that operates 24/7.

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Bitcoin trades perpetually, while others do not

Bitcoin is traded every hour of every day. There is no closing time, no weekend pause, no leniency. People can purchase it after dinner, during flights, or on Sunday mornings, right in the midst of any news cycle causing widespread panic.

Most other assets represented in this chart operate on “almost always” schedules. That remains distinct from “always.”

DXY futures trade for 21 hours each day. S&P futures offer “nearly 24-hour” access throughout the week. CME refers to it as around-the-clock liquidity, and that’s accurate in the manner every futures trader comprehends: It’s accessible most of the time that truly matters.

Cryptocurrency, particularly spot Bitcoin, falls into the category of 24/7 trading. It continues when all others are meant to be resting. That appears to be an advantage.

In this dataset, it functioned more like a liability.

The “fair” comparison casts Bitcoin in a negative light

When comparing assets, you can either assess them based on their own timelines or impose the same timestamps on them.

So I analyzed the data in both manners.

In the first instance, “as traded,” you receive the flat Bitcoin outcome.

In the second instance, overlap-only, you examine only the timestamps where every market has established a price.

This method ensures the comparison occurs within the same hours. The overlap window begins on Jan. 2, 00:00 UTC, and extends through Jan. 27, 15:00 UTC.

Asset	Return (Overlap-only window)
Bitcoin	-1.24%
Gold	+16.44%
Silver	+46.17%
Oil	+6.48%
S&P futures	+1.46%
DXY	-1.94%

Thus, the narrative that “Bitcoin was flat” is already more tenuous than it appears.

Moreover, the larger implication still hasn’t been realized. Bitcoin’s struggles this year have manifested as opportunity costs. That opportunity cost emerged at a notably specific time.

Bitcoin’s entire 2026 hinged on Saturdays and Sundays

Here’s the clearest element in the dataset, and it’s a detail I cannot ignore.

From Jan. 1 through Jan. 27, Bitcoin’s compounded return distinctly divided between weekdays and weekends.

Period	UTC days	Compounded return (Jan. 1–Jan. 27)
Weekdays	Monday–Friday	+3.21%
Weekends	Saturday–Sunday	-3.17%
Net	All days	~0% (flat)

In simpler terms, Bitcoin spent the weekdays appearing to strive for higher values. Then, it spent the weekends reversing that progress.

If you’re curious about which weekends caused the setbacks, the dataset provides that information as well.

Weekend ending (UTC)	Weekend return
Jan. 18	-1.97%
Jan. 25	-3.33%

Bitcoin failed to gain momentum, but not in isolation. It performed in a manner that indicated who held sway over the market when the major markets were offline.

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This is how “digital gold” appeared in ounces

People refer to Bitcoin as a hedge against the dollar, which is understandable since your profit and loss are typically calculated in dollars.

However, when the hard-asset trade is active, dollars may not be the best measuring unit.

Therefore, I evaluated Bitcoin in terms of what actually performed well. Using the overlap-only window:

Bitcoin priced in	Change (Overlap-only window)
Gold ounces	-15.18%
Silver ounces	-32.44%
S&P futures	-2.66%

This is why I believe my statement about the “only thing worse…” strikes an emotional chord.

Bitcoin didn’t plummet, and that can feel like a win when you’re conditioned to anticipate drama. Your purchasing power, however, still diminished. It eroded against the very assets that individuals invest in when they worry about policy, currency, and geopolitical issues.

That anxiety is prevalent in current mainstream discussions.

The Washington Post characterized the surge in gold and silver as a shift away from the dollar, central bank acquisitions, and a broad search for safety. The Guardian labeled gold’s $5,000 price as a move towards a safe haven.

The World Bank has explicitly outlined the link between uncertainty and gold. It anticipates that precious metals will remain elevated into 2026, with policy unpredictability and geopolitical factors at the forefront of the narrative.

Bitcoin’s role suggests it ought to thrive in such an environment. The data, however, indicates a different scenario is unfolding.

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Bitcoin is behaving like an equity beta, not a metal

Correlation is often misused. I won’t pretend that a single month defines what an asset “is.”

Nevertheless, the overlap-only hourly returns present a consistent narrative.

Pair	Correlation (overlap-only hourly returns)
Bitcoin vs. S&P futures	~0.40
Bitcoin vs. gold	~-0.06
Bitcoin vs. silver	~0.00

Thus, when individuals reflect on this year and question why Bitcoin didn’t keep pace with the hard-asset surge, the data-driven answer is straightforward.

During this period, Bitcoin behaved more like a risk asset than a safe haven. This becomes increasingly significant when connected back to the weekend pattern. Risk assets are typically where individuals liquidate cash when feeling apprehensive.

Cryptocurrency possesses a structural characteristic that makes it an appealing avenue for that: It’s continuously available. Even general explanations of 24/7 trading tend to converge on the same notion.

Constantly open markets can lead to thinner liquidity during unconventional hours, which can result in sharper movements.

The data reveals a version of that reality where weekends became a precarious situation.

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Why this is significant moving forward

If Bitcoin is to “catch up” in a market led by metals, it likely requires one key element above all else.

It must cease its decline during weekends. That’s a bold assertion. It also provides us with a clear method to track the situation in real time.

If the upcoming weekends yield flat or positive contributions, the “weekday rally, weekend fade” trend will be broken.

Bitcoin has the potential to return to functioning like a macro asset. If the trend continues, the opportunity costs will keep accumulating.

Bitcoin’s assertion as the most reliable anti-fiat trade is continually challenged by the oldest anti-fiat trade known to humanity. We can also link this to the institutional flow narrative that has been gradually entering serious Bitcoin predictions.

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Standard Chartered’s research team has indicated that the next phase heavily relies on ETF interest.

Their updated forecast positions Bitcoin around $150,000 by the end of 2026, while excluding incremental corporate treasury purchases from the model.

This is relevant because weekends are the part of the market where traditional mechanisms are quiet, while crypto markets continue to operate.

If Bitcoin aims to trade like a mature hedge, it requires institutional flows willing to maintain risk over the weekend. Alternatively, it needs sufficient depth so that weekend sell-offs do not matter.

The market will reveal which scenario materializes.

The human aspect of this story

Most individuals do not experience “correlation.” They feel regret. They witness gold surging, silver skyrocketing, and Bitcoin remaining stagnant as if it’s waiting for an invitation. They question whether the entire situation was a fabrication.

Then they focus closely and notice that Bitcoin did exhibit momentum during the week. That momentum vanished the instant Saturday arrived. That’s relatable because it aligns with how people genuinely live.

Monday signifies determination.

Friday symbolizes assurance.

Saturday represents doomscrolling.

Sunday is about negotiation.

Bitcoin encapsulated that emotional journey within its chart. The underlying data illustrates the week as a market striving to push Bitcoin back into the macro dialogue.

The weekend appeared as a market utilizing Bitcoin as a means to mitigate risk since it was the only significant, liquid asset that remained open (even while certain global leaders continued posting on social media).

That’s the true punchline.

Bitcoin’s 2026 hasn’t been characterized by a singular dramatic collapse or a triumphant breakout. Instead, it has been marked by a gradual decline, and that decline follows a schedule.

What to monitor next

What to monitor	Why it matters
Bitcoin’s weekend performance each week	The significance is more about the direction than the magnitude initially. A transition to flat or positive weekends would disrupt the “weekday rally, weekend fade” trend.
Bitcoin priced in ounces, not dollars	The ratio indicates whether Bitcoin is gaining “hard money” credibility in relation to what is truly leading the market.
Whether gold and silver maintain their appeal	The macro environment is doing substantial work. The World Bank anticipates that precious metals will continue to perform well into 2026 amid uncertainty.
Overall market sentiment	The S&P rising while the dollar declines serves as a reminder that this isn’t merely a panic-driven market. It’s a rotation market.

For now, the most crucial lesson is one that seems almost too fundamental.

Time is significant. Bitcoin operates in an environment that never turns off the lights.

This month, that came with a cost.

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