Reasons for optimism as Bitcoin approaches significant buying threshold with $49,000 forecast materializing.

Bitcoin has a unique ability to transform figures into lasting memories.

You recall the initial moments it surged past significant milestones, such as $10k, $20k, and $100k; you remember the shift in sentiment when it ceased to reward optimism; you recall the subdued weeks when each rebound seemed like a trap, and the boisterous ones when it felt as if the ground had disappeared.

The pivotal memory of this cycle is likely to be $126,000.

This is the peak I focused on, the point when the market stopped exhibiting an upward trend and began to resemble a distribution phase.

I presented this argument in October, asserting that the bear market cycle commenced at $126k, and the market has been following its typical pattern after a cycle peak: first losing confidence, then losing value.

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As I compose this, Bitcoin is approximately 51% lower than that cycle peak.

On the chart, the current decline appears familiar enough to induce discomfort.

I reviewed previous major cycles and documented every roughly 50% drop from an all-time high, then analyzed the subsequent outcomes.

The patterns are never identical; the catalysts vary, the infrastructure evolves, the participants change, yet the human behavior remains consistent: denial, bargain rebounds, followed by the moment when individuals stop questioning “is it over” and begin asking “how low can it go.”

In 2018, after Bitcoin had already declined about 50% from its peak, it dropped an additional roughly 70% before reaching the true cycle bottom.

In 2022, the subsequent decline after a 50% drop was less severe, closer to 50%.

If you take that decreasing severity at face value, the next “after 50” decline this cycle could be around 30%, in the best-case scenario, and if it behaves more like previous cycles, it could be significantly worse.

This range, another 30% to another 70% from current levels, is broad enough to be somewhat unhelpful on its own, but it does provide a directional indication.

Bitcoin weekly price cycles: major tops and bear-market lows from 2017–2026.

The primary purpose of discussing bear markets is to distill the issue into something relatable, something you can prepare for, something you can monitor in real-time without losing your composure.

This article aims to connect my previous writings throughout this cycle with the historical drawdown patterns, then translate that into actionable medium-term levels and scenarios, accompanied by a clear set of signals that would prompt me to reconsider my stance.

The moment I lost faith in the cycle, and why the chart remains significant

Prior to the $126k peak, I devoted considerable time contemplating time itself.

Bitcoin operates on a cycle clock; it is not perfect, it is often ridiculed, yet it remains one of the few frameworks that can keep you grounded amid the surrounding noise.

In September 2025, I noted that the cycle clock indicated a final high by late October, with the key question being whether ETFs would alter the course of history. That piece represented my attempt to reconcile two truths: the cycle has a rhythm, and the structure of this cycle is distinct.

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Less than three weeks later, I stopped being ambiguous. I stated that time was up, making the case that the peak had been reached and the bear market cycle began at $126k. It was a definitive moment, as I have learned from experience that peak markets do not feel like peaks; they feel like they are just beginning.

Now we have the advantage of data and a chart that can be analyzed without bias. Utilizing the weekly BTC chart, I marked the cycle tops using the peak week highs, then tracked the drawdowns using the subsequent weekly lows. This method applies to the cycles from 2017 to 2018, 2021 to 2022, and 2025 to the present.

Historical Bitcoin cycles highlight a recurring first-leg drawdown of roughly 50%.

Here is what that analysis conveys in straightforward terms.

In 2017, the peak week high was approximately $19.8k, while the bottom week low was around $3.1k, representing an 84% peak-to-trough decline.

In 2021, the peak week high was about $69k, and the bottom week low was around $15.5k, indicating a 78% peak-to-trough decline.

In 2025, the peak week high was about $126.2k, and the lowest weekly low recorded so far is around $60.1k, marking a 52% drawdown to date.

While the chart cannot predict the future, it can indicate the current market regime. A 52% drawdown from a cycle high is not an unprecedented state for Bitcoin; it is a familiar phase of the process.

The unsettling aspect is what typically follows, as in the previous two cycles, “down 50” was closer to the midpoint than the conclusion.

This is why I focus on levels and conditions, rather than attempting to win the argument with a single figure.

The level map I provided, and what it aimed to shield you from

In November, once the cycle high was behind us, I authored a piece that was intentionally pragmatic, discussing Bitcoin’s potential to reach $73k, and advising on the price levels to monitor during a bear market. It was my effort to convert a daunting range into manageable steps.

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This map featured a clear progression.

Initially, the market needed to contend with $85k, a level that resides in collective memory as a dividing line between “this is a correction” and “this is something more significant.”

Next was $73k, a crucial level due to its psychological and structural significance; it is near a previous regime, where one would expect dip buyers to step in and sellers to test the validity of the bids.

Below that, I pointed out $49.8k as the lowest significant support, a figure that tends to appear in long-term charts as a focal point when the market seeks a place to be wrong publicly.

A few days later, I elaborated further, attaching my name to a medium-term bear thesis, suggesting Bitcoin could decline to $49k, and that this winter might be the shortest yet. This piece was not merely a price prediction; it was a framework with scenarios, including a soft landing case, a base case, and a deep cut case, along with a set of flip levels that would indicate which path we were on.

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Nov 24, 2025 · Liam 'Akiba' Wright

Then January came, and I detailed how the month presented troubling red flags, particularly because the underlying infrastructure was already under strain.

That term, the plumbing, is where the objective aspect of the narrative resides.

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Price is the headline. Plumbing is the aspect that can disrupt a bear market, as it transforms an orderly sell-off into a cascade. It distinguishes between a dip that feels like an opportunity and one that feels like a warning.

Thus, the medium-term question becomes straightforward to pose, yet challenging to answer, and deeply personal for anyone holding risk: does price align with the broken plumbing, or does the plumbing recover before we reach the deeper levels?

The drawdown patterns, and why I continue to discuss diminishing declines

When I analyzed previous drawdowns after Bitcoin had already fallen about 50% from a peak, I was not attempting to formulate a magical equation. I aimed to quantify a sentiment: that each cycle has experienced a different type of pain.

In the 2017 to 2018 bear market, once you were already down around 50% from the peak, there was still a significant amount of downward potential in the market. In the 2021 to 2022 bear market, the additional decline after that midpoint was smaller, still painful, still sufficient to inflict damage, yet less severe than the previous cycle.

In the analysis I conducted based on the data, the “additional after minus 50” decline was approximately 68% in the 2017 to 2018 cycle, and around 55% in the 2021 to 2022 cycle.

Therefore, it is reasonable to question whether that additional leg diminishes again.

If it does shrink again, you arrive at a figure that feels like a best-case downside scenario from current levels, approximately another 30% lower. This logic underpins the range, another 30% to another 70% from here, depending on whether history repeats gently or harshly.

Bitcoin bear markets show diminishing downside after the first 50% drawdown.

The challenge is that “from here” is a moving target, and bear markets are seldom courteous. They do not decline in a linear fashion. They punish conviction on both sides. They create rallies that seem like salvation and declines that occur right after individuals are convinced the worst is over.

Thus, I do not wish to present a singular forecast. Medium-term targets are sensible within the historical context and provide the conditions that would shift the probability from one scenario to another.

Medium-term targets, three scenarios, and what would necessitate a reevaluation

Here is the clearest way I can articulate it, utilizing the level map from my November articles, the identified drawdowns, and the plumbing signals I highlighted in January.

A medium-term downside ladder outlines soft landing, base case, and tail-risk scenarios from current price.

Scenario 1, the soft landing, $56k to $60k

This scenario assumes the market has already completed most of the emotional labor. It is down 50%, it has flushed out late longs, it has frightened weak hands, and now it transitions into a shorter winter.

I described this as a “soft landing” band in the thesis because Bitcoin can certainly bottom higher than pessimists anticipate when structural demand remains intact.

What would validate this scenario is a shift in the underlying signals.

In that same thesis, I outlined “flip levels” that are more significant than mere sentiment, including ETF flow behavior, fee share in miner revenue, and hashprice stability. If you observe sustained improvement in these areas, the likelihood of a higher low increases, and the market spends less time searching for a dramatic bottom.

Scenario 2, the base case, $49k

This remains my primary medium-term target, for one reason that is crucial in bear markets: it is the level that induces the most discomfort among participants, yet it possesses extremely strong historical support. Back in 2021-2022, the mid-$40ks was where institutional buying peaked and was consistently defended.

Bear market lows are social phenomena. They represent the point where narratives fracture. A $49k print would accomplish that, particularly for those who anchored their expectations to six figures.

In my November level map, I identified $49.8k as the lowest significant support, and then in the medium-term thesis, I argued for $49k as the base scenario, continuing to monitor that trajectory into January as the plumbing began to signal more warnings in this update.

This is also where the historical drawdown envelope remains truthful. A decline to $49k from a $126k high would still represent a smaller overall drop than in 2018 and 2022, aligning with the theme of diminishing severity while still acknowledging Bitcoin’s tendency to penalize complacency.

Scenario 3, the deep cut, $36k to $42k

I included this range in the original thesis for a reason; it is a scenario that must be acknowledged, even if it is not one you wish to experience.

A deep cut occurs when the market reassesses both risk and confidence in the structure, which can arise from any combination of ongoing outflows, miner distress, fee shortages, and macroeconomic shocks.

In my thesis, I framed this as a risk for late 2026 into early 2027, not as an imminent certainty, and that timing is significant because deep bottoms typically unfold over time rather than occurring in a single day.

This scenario also aligns the historical analogy more closely with 2018, characterized by a prolonged decline followed by a final capitulation that few anticipate until it materializes.

Bitcoin’s weekly log chart mapping key support levels and medium-term downside targets across cycles.

The $73k question, its significance, and why it is not the endpoint

I want to revisit $73k, as it is the level that most individuals should emotionally connect with.

In that November article, I discussed “Bitcoin to $73k” because I wanted readers to have a strategy for the first major confrontation. This confrontation is where dip buyers emerge prominently, where influencers regain their conviction, where bears take profits, and where the market determines whether it is facing an air pocket or a staircase.

If Bitcoin reclaims $73k while the plumbing improves simultaneously, the market can stabilize at a higher level than anticipated.

If Bitcoin fails to regain $73k and the plumbing continues to deteriorate, then $56k to $60k begins to feel like the next serious target, and $49k shifts from sounding dramatic to sounding mechanical.

This illustrates the true value of levels in a bear market; they assist in transforming panic into actionable checklists.

Historical cycles show a long gap between Bitcoin’s –50% drawdown and final trough.

What would prompt me to change my perspective swiftly

I do not believe readers require another list of alarming figures. They need to understand what to monitor to maintain their composure.

The shifts I am concerned about are the same ones I outlined in the medium-term thesis and reiterated in the January update.

1. If ETF flow behavior alters, if the market begins absorbing supply on down days, if the inclination to sell during rallies diminishes, that is significant.
2. If miner economics improve, if fee share becomes meaningfully supportive again,