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Fed Chair Jerome Powell refrained from addressing monetary policy during his remarks at the Community Bank Conference on Oct. 9, which supports Bitcoin’s ongoing rise toward $150,000.
Matt Mena, a Crypto Research Strategist at 21Shares, noted in a report that this was a “strategic omission” by Powell.
He described the limited focus as “effectively a green light for risk assets” since the US data blackout diminishes the macroeconomic shocks that usually exert pressure on Bitcoin and shifts policy expectations to a more dovish stance.
With the federal shutdown pausing significant releases, such as employment figures and CPI, both traders and the Fed have less concrete information to justify new rate increases.
Moreover, Bitcoin attracted over $2.5 billion in inflows from Oct. 6 to Oct. 8, including a single-day total of $1.2 billion on Monday, marking the second-largest inflow on record and pushing prices to $126,000.
Inflows decreased to $440.7 million on Oct. 8 as the dollar strengthened due to rising yields on Japanese government bonds, likely leading to tactical de-risking.
Current market expectations indicate a 95% likelihood of a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut at the forthcoming FOMC meeting, based on data from the CME FedWatch Tool. The odds for a cut in December are at 81.5% on CME.
On Polymarket, the probability of a 25 bps rate cut in December stands at 71%. Additionally, expectations that the US government shutdown will persist until at least Oct. 15 have reached a record high of 88%.
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Together, these probabilities suggest that prolonged data delays from the shutdown will lead the Fed to contemplate further easing.
Mena remarked:
“The market is clearly digesting gains before its next leg higher, and structurally, it’s hard to see a top forming with liquidity building underneath. Once BTC breaks above $130,000, I expect it to move quickly toward $150,000 – almost like a magnet.”
He further noted that the consolidation near all-time highs coincides with both the Nasdaq and gold reaching new records almost daily, reinforcing the two foundations Bitcoin occupies.
While gold acts as a safeguard against currency devaluation, enhancing Bitcoin’s narrative as an asset for the “debasement trade,” the Nasdaq serves as a proxy for technological innovation and growth.
Mena anticipates Bitcoin could hit $150,000 by the end of the year, reflecting a 22% increase from current levels.
He concluded:
“Powell may have stayed silent, but liquidity expectations are apparent, and the rest of the market seems to be catching the bid.”
The post Powell’s silence on rates to fuel Bitcoin’s path toward $150,000 appeared first on CryptoSlate.
