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The primary holder of Trump shares on Polymarket has changed, with ‘zxgngl’ overtaking ‘Fredi9999′ following notable purchasing activity on Monday morning, coinciding with a decrease in odds over the weekend. On Sunday, Trump’s lead diminished from 65% to 54% as the influence of large investors waned.
Large investors who have been consistently acquiring Trump shares regardless of the price seem to have lessened their activity, resulting in a reduction of his lead over Harris. On Sunday, the odds tightened to Trump at 54% compared to Harris at 46%, but this trend saw a slight reversal by Monday.
At the time of reporting, Trump’s odds stand at 57%, while Harris is at 42%.
US Election Odds (Source: Polymarket)
Several large investors expanded their positions in October, consistently purchasing from the order book even when prices peaked at $0.66. However, with a price drop of $0.12 over the weekend, many large investors hesitated to increase their holdings.
The leading supporter of Harris, ‘leier,’ placed over $4 million in bets after Harris’ price rose from $0.33 to $0.47. Initially, ‘leier’ had wagered $29,993 on Harris at $0.34 but opted to boost their position after the odds tightened significantly. As of the latest update, ‘leier’ is facing an unrealized loss of $416,013.
Polymarket Harris trades (Source: Polymarket)
On Monday morning, ‘zxgngl’ and ‘larpas’ seized the chance to buy shares at the lower price, contributing to a rise in Trump’s odds by approximately $0.03.
After a month of aggressive buying, many top holders are now experiencing unrealized losses. Only ‘larpas’ and ‘zxgngl’ have made purchases in the last five days, while others have abstained from new positions for up to two weeks.
| Username | Wallet Address | Joined | Positions Value | Profit/Loss | Volume Traded | Markets Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| zxgngl | 0xd235…0f29 | Oct 2024 | $12,948,153.76 | -$895,068.71 | $21,465,527.63 | 2 |
| GCottrell93 | 0x94a4…6356 | Oct 2024 | $7,670,524.24 | -$1,138,226.10 | $13,282,293.06 | 1 |
| Theo4 | 0x5668…5839 | Oct 2024 | $14,899,351.39 | -$2,890,014.72 | $40,277,373.15 | 13 |
| PrincessCaro | 0x8119…f887 | Sep 2024 | $6,190,145.31 | $80,957.34 | $23,520,809.95 | 14 |
| Michie | 0xed22…3dd0 | Oct 2024 | $3,761,940.18 | $131,874.00 | $8,450,962.77 | 13 |
| larpas | 0xe43c…01ad | Jul 2024 | $4,452,987.72 | -$62,387.08 | $8,498,926.94 | 24 |
| Fredi9999 | 0x1f2d…d0cf | Jun 2024 | $16,350,230.30 | $96,221.14 | $76,611,316.91 | 45 |
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The total profit/loss for the top seven Trump holders currently amounts to $-4,676,643.
<pTrump supporters like ‘zxgngl’, who joined Polymarket in October, hold positions valued at $12,948,153 with a profit/loss of -$895,068, having traded a volume of $21,465,527 across two markets. Likewise, ‘GCottrell93′ has positions valued at $7,670,524 with a loss of $1,138,226, while ‘Theo4′ holds $14,899,351 in positions with a loss of $2,890,014.
As previously noted, large investors such as ‘Fredi9999′ and ‘PrincessCaro’ actively supported Trump’s odds through high-frequency trading over the past month. At one point, they executed over 1,600 trades totaling more than $4 million within a single day, significantly impacting market dynamics. One of the newer participants, ‘Theo4′, placed over $12 million in high-frequency bets on Trump within three days, rapidly becoming one of the leading holders.
Market depth shifts amid election certification fears
Market depth data had earlier suggested a lack of liquidity at current price levels, with only around $4 million in sell orders between the current price and $0.99. This sparse order book indicated that relatively small buy or sell orders could greatly affect Trump’s perceived odds on Polymarket.
However, the order book has undergone significant changes, with $12 million in sell orders now positioned below $0.99. Additionally, a new market has been established to bet on who will be inaugurated, in light of concerns regarding potential legal challenges to the election results. Traders have increasingly placed sell orders below $1 to take advantage of gains should the market encounter issues with final resolutions.
For example, if Trump’s odds rise to $0.93, $5 million in liquidity will be sold, as users choose to secure profits before the result is officially confirmed. The $5 million threshold will be reached for Harris if her odds increase to $0.98. According to Polymarket’s terms, the market resolves,
“When the Associated Press, Fox, and NBC all call the election for the same candidate. In the unlikely event that doesn’t happen, the market will remain open until inauguration and resolve to whoever gets inaugurated.”
Will Trump supporters capitalize on the lower price to back the former President for the upcoming election, or will Polymarket odds align more closely with polling figures that indicate a tight race?
US Election polls (Source: FiveThirtyEight)
The post Polymarket odds narrow sharply as whales slow down Trump betting appeared first on CryptoSlate.
